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Rishi Patel looks at the projected fantasy football production for the 2020 Miami Dolphins to identify potential values and busts.
After getting throttled, destroyed, and thrashed by the Baltimore Ravens and New England Patriots in the first two weeks of the 2019 season, many pundits predicted the Miami Dolphins would end up as one of the worst teams in NFL history. Fans of the team knew the “Tank For Tua” campaign was in existence well before the season started, so it probably wasn’t a surprise to them.
Nevertheless, some players even wanted out after the Week 1 obliteration by the Ravens. Though Miami stunk it up on the field for most of the season, they played hard towards the end of it under new coach Brian Flores. The team won late-season contests against the Colts and Eagles, along with getting redemption on division rival New England by spoiling their playoff seeding in an upset win in Foxborough.
After starting 0-7, the Fins finished 5-11. This led them to pick fifth in the draft where, alas, Miami fans’ dreams came true and Tua was selected. With hopeful long-term stability at the QB position, there is growing hope this woebegone organization can play meaningful football sometime soon. With their strong draft and free agency additions, Miami is on the right path to success. For this season, Tua may not appear as much or at all, so it should be considered another transition year. Let’s break down this offense for fantasy because there are still some decent players to consider.
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Quarterback
With less than two months until the 2020 season starts, Miami has not made it clear whether Tua Tagovailoa will start. This is considering the QB’s slow recovery from a hip injury sustained last season along with COVID-19 preventing many in-person meetings. Coach Brian Flores has not decided the starter as a result. This means there is a lot of uncertainty around the QB position on this team heading into the 2020 campaign.
The most likely outcome is journeyman Ryan Fitzpatrick starting the season for the Dolphins though he could get switched out for Tua as the season progresses. The problem is nobody knows when. Therefore, the fantasy values of Fitzpatrick and Tua both take a hit.
Fitzpatrick started last season for the Fins in their “rebuilding” year. The 37-year-old stockpiled 3,529 pass yards, 20 pass touchdowns, 13 interceptions, seven pass yards per attempt, 235.3 pass yards per game, an 85.5 quarterback rating, 243 rush yards, and four rush touchdowns. He also had 87 bad throws and a 17.7 percent poor throws per pass attempt rate. Despite playing 15 seasons in the NFL, the Arizona native has never had a breakout season or been a fantasy superstar. He finished 16th among fantasy QBs last season.
The only plus Fitzpatrick brings in fantasy is his rushing upside, as he ranked 11th in rush yards among NFL QBs and fifth in rush touchdowns. Other than that, this QB doesn’t bring much explosiveness or consistency. He is known to throw many picks (eighth highest in 2019). Last season, his QBR was ranked 28th, his bad throws were 13th highest, and he had a 72.8 percent on-targets throws per pass attempt, which ranked 23rd among NFL QBs. Not to mention the journeyman had nine fumbles, which ranked 13th among NFL QBs. The veteran simply doesn’t inspire much confidence as a fantasy QB, so he should be avoided in drafts. The same goes for Tua heading into drafts, there is too much risk because we don’t know when he will start. The best-case scenario for the Alabama product would be to pick him up off the waiver wire later in the season if he does start AND balls out with great fantasy numbers.
Running Back
Believe it or not, 37-year-old Ryan Fitzpatrick, the QB, was the leading rusher on this team in 2019 with 243 yards! That sounds awful for an NFL team, but it was the case after RB Kenyan Drake got shipped to the desert at midseason. The Dolphins bolstered their RB depth chart coming into 2020 luckily, signing former Eagle Jordan Howard in free agency and trading for 49ers running back Matt Breida during the draft.
These two backs will now headline the RBs unit and have at least proven themselves enough that Fitzpatrick won’t have to lead the team in rushing for a second straight season. Both were backups last season on their respective teams, so there is certainly an interesting mix of talent in Miami’s backfield. It is likely that both backs will split carries and have an equally large role in this unit at the beginning of the season.
Howard only played 10 games last season for Philly because of a shoulder injury. He racked up 525 rush yards, six rush touchdowns, 4.4 rush yards per attempt, 52.5 rush yards per game, 10 receptions, 69 receiving yards, and one receiving touchdown. In his fourth season last year, the Indiana product naturally posted career-lows in rush yards, rush yards per game, receptions, and receiving yards due to injury. He also had 2.4 rush yards after contact per rush and 38.1 percent of rushes inside the 5. The 25-year-old finished 38th among fantasy backs as a result.
In 13 games with San Francisco, Breida finished with 623 rush yards, one rush touchdown, 5.1 yards per rush, 47.9 rush yards per game, 19 receptions, 120 receiving yards, and one receiving touchdown. The 25-year-old had 1.8 rush yards after contact per rush. The Georgia Southern product managed a 45th place finish among fantasy RBs in 2019. One notable thing to mention is he ranked top-ten in rush yards per attempt.
Both Breida and Howard had modest fantasy and regular season finishes in 2019. The presence of both on this Dolphins backfield will make it hard for their fantasy value to increase to RB1 territory. As the season progresses, the 5’10”, 195-pound Brieda could get a bigger pass-catching role while the 6’0”, 224-pound Howard could serve as the traditional power running back. Nevertheless, they will likely split carries at the beginning of the season to see who emerges as more productive. Both can be considered RB2s in 16+ team redraft leagues and WR3s/flexes in smaller leagues.
Wide Receiver
The Dolphins now have a stud receiver in DeVante Parker, along with returning Preston Williams, Albert Wilson, and Allen Hurns. Parker is the clear-cut WR1 and the best option to choose in fantasy from this unit as he had 1,200 yards receiving last season. It wasn’t always easy for the receiver to play at a robust level in the NFL, as the 2015 pick has been put in the bust conversation multiple times throughout his career. He only had 309 receiving yards in 2018.
Nevertheless, it’s all about putting in hard work and trying to be your best on the field. In 2019, the 27-year-old had his breakout season on a tanking team, and he posted career-highs in games played, receptions, targets, yards, and touchdowns. The Louisville product grabbed 72 receptions, 128/615 targets (20.8%), 1,202 yards, nine touchdowns, and had 16.7 yards per catch. He paced the receivers’ unit and improved drastically in his fifth NFL season. Overall, the wideout finished fifth in yards among NFL pass-catchers and tied for fourth in touchdowns. He finished sixth in fantasy.
Coming off a breakout season and being on a WRs unit with no other prolific players, Parker can be a great WR1 in deep redraft leagues (think 16+ teams) or a solid WR2 in redraft leagues with 10-12 teams.
The rest of this unit is where things get interesting as there is no receiver that stands out. 23-year-old Preston Williams could only play eight games last season as a rookie due to a torn ACL injury. The 6’5” receiver managed to reel in 32 receptions, 60/615 targets (9.8%), 428 yards, 13.4 yards per catch, and three touchdowns. He finished 75th among fantasy receivers and should be considered the WR2 on this team. At best, he should be considered a WR3 in deep redraft leagues.
Meanwhile, Albert Wilson and Allen Hurns round out the top receivers on this team, but neither are all that great for fantasy. In 13 games, Wilson compiled 43 receptions, 62/615 targets (10.1%), 351 yards, 8.2 yards per catch, and one touchdown. In his sixth NFL season in 2019, the Georgia State product recorded a career-high in receptions and nearly did in targets too with these modest numbers.
After one year with the Dallas Cowboys, Allen Hurns returned to Florida to play for the Dolphins in 2019. He didn’t fare much better than Wilson though. The 28-year-old managed 32 receptions, 47/615 targets (7.6%), 416 yards, 13 yards per catch, and two touchdowns.
Neither Hurns nor Wilson should be considered anything more than depth in deep leagues given their small roles on a generally low-powered offense.
Tight End
2018 pick Mike Gesicki improved during his sophomore season in 2019. The Penn State product was second on the team in receptions, targets, yards, and touchdowns, all behind DeVante Parker.
He played 16 games in 2019, accumulating 51 receptions, 89/615 targets (14.5%), 570 yards, 11.2 yards per catch, and five touchdowns. Gesicki improved in all those categories from his first to second year. He finished 11th last year among fantasy tight ends after finishing 61st in 2018. Among NFL tight ends last season, the 24-year-old finished 14th in receiving yards per game (35.6), 12th in targets per game (5.6), receptions, and reception yards, and 10th in reception touchdowns.
Based on his fantasy and stat ranks among tight ends last season, Gesicki can be considered a TE1 in redraft leagues consisting of 12-14 teams.
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