RADIO
Antonio looks at the title fight between Alexander Volkanovski and Max Holloway that will take place in UFC 251 and breaks down the numbers of both fighters previewing the upcoming bout.
It's almost here, folks. We're just days away from making Fight Island a reality. I know you are disappointed that we're not going to watch athletes fight inside an octagon placed in the middle of a sandy beach, but what we're about to witness will make it to history books. The UFC, making up for the time lost due to the COVID-19 pandemic, will be running four cards in a span of two weeks while putting four titles up for grabs. That, simply put, is going to be insane.
Yas Island will be the place, and starting on July 11, we'll be kicking things off with UFC 251, and three titles will be on the line (welterweight, featherweight, and bantamweight).
In this series of articles, I'll break down the title bouts about to happen over the next weeks on Fight Island. I will present the contestants, look at their past stats, and explore some fantasy numbers to get you ready for fight time. Don't forget to check out all of our MMA Content here at RotoBaller, and give me a follow on Twitter @chapulana!
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Featherweight - Volkanovski vs. Holloway: Tale of the Tape
This is the ultimate rematch. The last time both men stepped inside an octagon, they faced each other, with Volkanovski getting the belt from Holloway's waist. That happened last December, so it's about time we get round two of this rivalry.
While Volkanovski is three years older than Max, he's got fewer fights inside the UFC promotion. Holloway's history goes back to 2012, where he interestingly debuted with a loss to Dustin Poirier. Holloway has the edge in height, but he's got a shorter reach than Volkanovski.
Featherweight - Volkanovski vs. Holloway: Fighting History
As already stated, Volkanovski hasn't lost a match while fighting for the UFC brand. He is 8-0 since 2016, and judging by what he did to Holloway already in 2019, it makes sense to think he has good chances of keeping that undefeated record intact come next week's fight.
Holloway's run expands further in time back to 2012. He had a shaky start to his career (2-3 in his first five fights) but then had a meteoric ascension with a 13-fight winning streak in which he was able to win the featherweight title and defend it multiple times. With that being said, 2019 was a year to forget for Max. He dropped the featherweight belt against Volkanovski to close the year after losing against Poirier for the interim lightweight title earlier last year.
Featherweight - Volkanovski vs. Holloway: Significant Strikes
Let's start with both men's striking offense. Both Volkanovski and Holloway have averaged more than 10 SS per minute in their fights since 2016. Holloway has a clear edge on volume, though, with almost five more attempts than Volkanovski. That volume doesn't translate to better efficiency; however, as Holloway lands only 46.1% of his SS compared to Volkanovski's 58.5% accuracy.
No matter what, the more attempts, the more upside when it comes to fantasy contests, so Holloway should have the edge here if the averages stay the same. Coincidentally, the last time they met both fighters threw 303 SS each, with Volkanovski landing 157 (51.8%) to Holloway's 134 (44.2%).
As far as dodging hits, the data shows a similar pattern than on offense. Volkanovski tends to keep his fights lower in terms of strike volume, both on offense and defense. He has thrown 6.9 SS his way compared to Holloway's 10.3 SS against. Both fighters make their foes miss over 55% of the SS they attempt against them, with Volkanovski avoiding a higher percentage (59%) than Max (56%) but close enough as to consider both equal on that category.
Featherweight - Volkanovski vs. Holloway: Takedowns
When they say that a picture is worth more than a thousand words, they aren't lying to you. Just look at those takedown offense statistics. It now makes more sense why Holloway is a higher volume striker than Volkanovski, doesn't it? While the former focuses on hitting the living hell out of his rivals, Volkanovski splits his offense more evenly on both taking down and striking his opponents.
While Holloway has attempted five takedowns combined since he debuted, Volkanovski attempted four in his last fight against Holloway alone. It's been three fights in a row where Volkanovski hasn't landed a single one (in seven attempts), but he's got a career 39.5% success rate on takedowns landed/attempted.
Preventing others from taking them down is (mostly) out of the fighter's control, and that is why both men's defenses even out in terms of how many TDs they face per minute. Here, though, is where Max truly excels, making his rivals miss on 93% of the attempts he tries on the former champion. Volkanovski, even when facing fewer takedown attempts from his rivals, only make them miss on achieving them on a much worse 52% rate. It doesn't matter a lot here, though, as it's hard to envision Holloway changing his strike-based game to a ground one against Volkanovski.
Featherweight - Volkanovski vs. Holloway: Fantasy Upside
When it comes to assessing these two in a fantasy context, well, they are both true studs of the game. Volkanovski minutes inside the octagon are lower due simply to him not being part of many five-round bouts compared to Holloway. Other than that, you see how close they are in terms of fantasy points (DraftKings scoring system) per fight.
Volkanovski has the edge on fantasy points per minute inside the octagon over Holloway, but both are high scorers no matter what. Even losing his last fight, Holloway has the lowest score between those two since 2016, and he still went on to rack up 67 DKFP. Volkanovski has only dropped below 106.5 DKFP once since his debut (77.5 points on a decision win versus Jose Aldo in 2019), and barring that 67-DKFP outing Holloway has scored 90.5+ DKFP in all of his fights since 2017.
One final important point to consider is how Holloway tends to depend a little bit less on early-finish bonus points to get high scores. Even though he's finished four of his last eight fights with a KO, he always did so inside the third round, lowering those bonuses. Volkanovski, on the other hand, would be penalized over longer bouts as his KOs all came before the end of the second round, thus giving him higher bonuses.
Featherweight - Volkanovski vs. Holloway: Prediction
This fight can't be closer. The last time both men meet inside the octagon, the bout went the distance and finished on a Volkanovski win via decision. There will definitely be big implications no matter which side this goes. Holloway needs the win to keep his name on the higher of UFC tiers, or else he'll drop a notch. Volkanovski got his first shot at a belt and took advantage of it, so he now needs to solidify his position.
Had I to pick one man, and although he's been a little bit on the low side of things lately, I'd go with a Holloway comeback on this one to regain some mojo and get the gold back to his belly. Don't rule out another long, 25-minute fight here. The stakes are so high that both men will do everything to go home with the W. Expect high fantasy tallies from the two fighters with Holloway's ultimate win giving him some extra points on this one.
