Failure to Launch? Decreasing Launch Angles

March 17, 2020

Eric Samulski analyzes Statcast launch angle drops from 2018 to 2019. Which of these players can we expect less power from in 2020 for fantasy baseball owners?

Earlier this week, I looked at the biggest launch angle changes in hopes of uncovering some players who made clear adjustments last season that could lead to sustained growth in 2020. However, for every story of positive growth and potential value, there are cases that cause some doubt or worry.

Below is the bottom 15 in terms of launch angle change. Some of these players took clear steps backward last season because of their change in launch angle, while others succeeded in spite of it but may be in for a rude awakening in 2020.

Take a peek at the table and then let's try to make sense of which names we should really be caring about for 2020 fantasy baseball.

Launch Angle Fallers

Jesse Winker (OF, CIN)

Jesse Winker was always more of a batting average asset than a power hitter, but he showed some interesting developing power by hitting seven home runs in 47 games when he debuted in 2017. Since then, his barrel% has dropped in each of the last three years and despite hitting 16 home runs last year, the total seems propped up by an unsustainable 23.2% HR/FB ratio.

A decreasing launch angle puts Winker in line to be a batting average asset with around 12 home runs, but his biggest problem may be the crowded Reds outfield that could prevent him from even seeing the field. I'm not in on him this year.

James McCann (C, CHW)

James McCann is another player on this list who seems to have lost his job. After the White Sox signed Yasmani Grandal, McCann became a clear backup, but there is some chatter that he could see some starts at 1B or DH to spell Edwin Encarnacion. However, in order for him to do that, he'll need to hit enough for the team to feel it needs his bat in the lineup.

With increased exit velocity and barrel%, McCann clearly hit the ball harder last year. He also lowered his launch angle and had a HR/FB rate that was 7% higher than his career average. Much of that points to unsustainable home run growth. With limited at-bats, McCann is likely capped at 10 home runs on the season with an average that will hover around .250, so I would recommend going in other directions, even in a two-catcher league.

Khris Davis (UTIL, OAK)

I only want to address Khris Davis here to assure people that there is nothing to worry about. He may have been around for a while, but he's only 32 and has a consistent track record. Before last season, Davis hit 42, 43, and 48 home runs over the previous three years. His production publicly cratered last year, but there's no reason to think it was anything other than the hip injury he suffered on May 5th.

He had 10 home runs and 23 RBI in just 31 games across March and April, but after the injury, his slugging percentage dropped over .140 points and he hit only 13 home runs the entire rest of the season. Fully healthy now, there's no reason he can't push 40 home runs again. You should buy back in.

Jackie Bradley Jr. (OF, BOS)

There are few hitters in the game as streaky as Jackie Bradley Jr. While that's led many Red Sox fans to hope for a trade, JBJ seems locked into regular at-bats with Mookie Betts in Los Angeles and Alex Verdugo nursing a back injury. Bradley Jr. is another player on this list who decreased his launch angle but still hit more home runs than the year before. In fact, almost all of his Statcast metrics regressed (barrel%, exit velocity, Sweet Spot%, Hard Hit%) yet he hit 21 home runs.

Perhaps more concerning is that he only stole eight bases after stealing 17 the year before. In short, the power numbers seem fluky and the speed gains in 2018 may not be here to stay, which means Bradley Jr. is more of a 15-10 player who will always under-produce his xBA and hit around .240. You can find any number of players like that.

Carlos Santana (1B, CLE)

OK, this is starting to become a little weird. Santana is another player who decreased his launch angle but hit more home runs thanks to a career-high HR/FB ratio. All of this is screaming "juiced ball" and many of these guys are due for clear regression if the ball changes at all. Santana raised his barrel%, exit velocity, and xSLG so there was some legitimate growth.

However, his HR/FB% was over 5% higher than his career numbers, so home run regression will happen in 2020. I'd expect something closer to 25-28 home runs than 34. He should still hit around .260 with solid RBI and runs in a good lineup, but don't expect him to push 110 and 100 like he did last year.

Yoan Moncada (3B, CHW)

Yoan Moncada may have decreased his launch angle out of the optimal range for home runs, but the rest of his Stacast metrics improved to such a degree that his power growth appears more legitimate. A 12-degree launch angle will still lead to a significant amount of home runs when paired with a 12.% barrel rate and 92.8 exit velocity, which was in the top 3% of the league.

Moncada hit the ball harder more consistently last year, which makes me think that 25 home runs is likely again in 2020. I wouldn't expect him to pop 30+ unless he makes a conscious change to his launch angle, but a 25-10 season with a .280 average is still desirable.

Francisco Lindor (SS, CLE)

Lindor is still an elite talent. However, his barrel%, Sweet Spot%, launch angle, and xSLG all decreased from 2018 to 2019. It adds a little more credence to his drop from 38 home runs to 32.

He'll still be an incredibly valuable fantasy asset this season, but those expecting him to revert back to pushing 40 home runs are going to be disappointed. There's not really much to say here, just take the 30-20 season with a .290 average and be more than happy with it.

C.J. Cron (1B, DET)

Cron is one of my favorite late-round corner infield targets. His barrel%, exit velocity, and Hard Hit % all increased by considerably margins last year, which led to a career-high xSLG, xwOBA, and xwOBAcon. However, perhaps due to a decreased launch angle, Cron hit five fewer home runs than he did the year before.

While that's certainly something to take note of, I'm more than a little bit intrigued by the increased quality contact. If Cron is able to maintain those gains while raising his launch angle back to where it was in 2018 (15.2-degrees) or 2017 (18-degrees), Cron could be in for another 30-home run season while hitting in the heart of the Tigers lineup.

Mike Moustakas (2B/3B, CIN)

Unlike many of this list, Moustakas' decrease in launch angle may have actually helped lead to his power outburst. He always made solid contact, but in 2019 he had a career-high barrel% and increases in Sweet Spot%, xSLG, and xwOBAcon. It's possible that by lowering his launch angle from something that hovered around 20% to something near the bottom end of the optimal home run range, he was able to correct his bat path to ensure more consistent contact.

At a bare minimum, the decrease in launch angle led to a 6% drop in infield fly balls, which suggests that he wasn't getting under the ball as much as he had been in years past and was able to drive the ball out of the park. Now that he's moving to a better hitter's park, Moose could be in for a big season. There's clear potential for him to build on his gains from last year and push 40 home runs, which makes him particularly intriguing with his 2B eligibility.

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