RADIO
Steve Halupka ranks the best & worst offensive lines in the NFL heading into Week 8 of the 2018 NFL season. This could impact fantasy football value at QB, RB, and WR.
As we head into the heart of the bye weeks, it’s important as ever for fantasy football owners to set up their rosters for success. We need to make sure that we’ve planned for our stars to be on bye and even pick up players a week or two in advance that will help your team make it through the bye week gauntlet. Analyzing those bye week fill-ins match-ups can end up making or breaking a fantasy season.
When fantasy owners look to the waiver wire for these options they might come from teams that we might not typically look for fantasy assets. This week I’m taking a look at one of those teams, the Jets. There is a ton of excitement around the selection of Sam Darnold in the NFL draft. Darnold has been hit or miss this season for consistent fantasy production, but his skill players certainly have some value, especially during bye weeks.
Not only will I take a look at the Jets, but also the Vikings from their match-up this past week. The Vikings offensive line has been a weak point for the team this season, but did it improve enough to change fantasy outcomes in the future? Can the Jets protect Sam Darnold enough to lead to some fantasy goodness for his skill players? Those questions answered and more below.
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Offensive Line to Watch - Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings certainly have spent enough money this off-season trying to upgrade their skill positions with the addition of the 30-million-dollar-man Kirk Cousins, but the team really failed to address another area of need, the offensive line. Riley Reiff was acquired from Detroit heading into the 2017 season to lock down the left tackle spot for the Vikings, but he has missed most of the last three games. This has led to Rashod Hill to move over to the left side and rookie Brian O’Neill to step in at right tackle. Hill has not fared well this season, grading out as the number 63 tackle according to Pro Football Focus. He’s been equally poor in the running and passing game, with no area above a 55. Hill had issues this past weekend against the Jets in pass protection as well. In this clip, you’ll see Hill be bull-rushed by the Jets defensive end and loses his leverage, allowing a massive sack, and nearly a safety, on 3rd down.
O’Neill has fared well the last two starts at right tackle. For the season, he’s grading out as a top-35 tackle according to PFF with an overall grade of 68. As he gains more starting experience, don’t be surprised if he takes over the starting right tackle spot from Rashod Hill when Riley Reiff returns.
The middle of the Vikings offensive line has been through the proverbial ringer to start the season. Nick Easton was expected to start at left guard, but was lost for the season before the games counted for real. Journeymen Tom Compton and Mike Remmers have handled the guard spots throughout the season, but have been very, very average. Compton has been the stronger of the two, grading out in the top-30 of NFL guards.
Even with all of the issues on the offensive line, when things come together, the Vikings have the skill players to really make some big plays. Early in the first quarter, the Vikings take a deep shot to Adam Thielen, but the Vikings understand the weakness they have on the offensive line. They use Kyle Rudolph and Laquon Treadwell in the slot to chip blitzing Jets, and the remainder of the line is solid enough to pick up stunts from the left and right side of the defensive lines. Cousins is able to step up and deliver a strike to Adam Thielen for a monster touchdown.
There are glaring issues as this unit overall is near the bottom of the NFL (28th) in adjusted line yards according to Football Outsiders and 25th in Stuffed ranking. The combination of these two factors will continue to contribute to issues in the running game as 21% of runs are either stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
Fantasy Impact
Trust: Kirk Cousins
Even with all of the issues on the offensive line, Cousins has played well this season, earning the 14th highest quarterback grade according to Pro Football Focus. He has been under siege for most of the season, but still putting up QB1 numbers. He’s cut down on his turnovers (only 3 INTs through 7 games) and has at least two total touchdowns in three of his last four games. With an upcoming schedule of the Saints, Lions, and Bears, Cousins should safely be a QB1 for the next few weeks.
Cause for Concern: Dalvin Cook / Latavius Murray
Even when Dalvin Cook was healthy (it’s hard to remember a time when this was true), there was little room to run behind the Vikings offensive line. Cook had double-digit carries in all three of his appearances this season and was not over 40 yards rushing in any outing. Don’t let the results fool you from this past week, there was not a ton to work with for Latavius Murray as well. He was able to get past a line of defenders on his long touchdown run, but there was little more for Murray. In the best case scenarios like against the Lions you should expect high-end RB2 output, but in tougher matchups, these running backs should be considered flex options.
Offensive Line to Watch - New York Jets
There was a ton of excitement in the offseason when Sam Darnold was selected 3rd overall in the NFL draft this past May. The Jets have been looking for their franchise quarterback for the last few generations, but it seems they finally may have found their solution. Darnold has the poise and attitude it takes to succeed in the NFL, but needs to be more consistent in his mechanics to be able to consistently move the ball and sustain drives. Even though Darnold has been inconsistent this season, the coaching staff has done a good job of trying to call plays to make him comfortable. A lot of these play calls have to do with the play-action game. In this first clip, the offensive line does a great job of protecting Darnold off a play-action pass out of a two tight end set. The tight ends are able to take care of one of the onrushing defensive ends, while the line is able to hold off the remaining defensive linemen and blitzing linebacker. Darnold is able to step up and deliver a deep crossing route.
This use of play-action has the Jets 14th in the NFL in adjusted sack rate at 6.4% on the season. They should continue to utilize the play-action game going forward to help make the reads as easy as possible for Darnold. On this quick fake, the offensive line gives Darnold enough time after picking up a blitzing linebacker so Darnold has room to plant his feet and deliver a strike to Chris Herndon on a wheel route.
Unfortunately for the Jets, protection like this is not consistent. The Jets use a seven-man protection once again to try and protect Darnold on a deep shot attempt. However, the tight end misses his chip on the right defensive end and left tackle Kelvin Beachum is driven back into Darnold’s lap.
Beachum and right tackle Brandon Snell have both been above average so far this season grading out at 70.8 for Beachum and 66.8 for Snell, good for top-40 at the position. Both have been better in pass protection than run blocking, but neither is below a grade of 60 for either pass or run blocking. As well as the tackles are playing, center Spencer Long has struggled. He’s currently the 35th ranked center according to PFF, which has behind some backups and fill-ins. Long has certainly not been the signing that the Jets thought he would be in the offseason and causing some instability in the middle of the line.
Fantasy Impact
Hold: Robbie Anderson
We’ve all seen the big weeks that Robbie Anderson can produce. He finally started to see the volume with 10 targets in week 7. Even though he only caught three balls last week, Anderson has the fifth highest amount of air yards in the NFL over the last three weeks. He should continue to see at least 6-8 targets a week with Quincy Enunwa out. Expect him to be a WR3 with upside each week going forward.
Add: Chris Herndon
It seems the Jets might have finally found their tight end. The rookie out of Miami has become a bigger part of the Jets offense over the last two games with at least 40 yards and a touchdown in each. Obviously, the tight end landscape is gross, to say the least, so Herndon could have a chance to be more than just a bye week fill in if he’s able to build off his recent success.
Top Five Offensive Lines
1) New Orleans Saints
2) Los Angeles Rams
3) Detroit Lions
4) New England Patriots
5) Green Bay Packers
Bottom Five Offensive Lines
32) Buffalo Bills
31) Arizona Cardinals
30) New York Giants
29) Houston Texans
28) Minnesota Vikings
For any questions about offensive line play in the NFL, feel free to contact me @TheRealHalupka on Twitter.
