Ben Watson (TE, NO) - 2018 Fantasy Football Sleeper

Once your draft has moved into the double-digit rounds, your efforts to pinpoint sleepers among the collection of players that remain available should become increasingly galvanized. While your ongoing attempt to stockpile running backs and wide receivers will continue as you advance through this portion of the draft, locating a second tight end to supplement your starter becomes more critical with the progression of each round.

There will be a cluster of options for your consideration at this challenging position, although some of the available players will be sharing a sizable percentage of targets with another tight end from their team’s passing attack (Jack Doyle/Eric Ebron/O.J. Howard/Cameron Brate/Vance McDonald). Others will present a potential dilemma regarding their track record of unreliability (Tyler Eifert/Jared Cook), or the simple fact that they have yet to play even one down at the professional level (Mike Gesicki/Hayden Hurst).

However, these potential hurdles do not exist for Ben Watson, whose legitimate qualifications as a sleeper have yet to be embraced by a substantial percentage of owners. If you are having difficulty generating enthusiasm toward the concept of dedicating a roster spot to this 37-year old, it is wise to reconsider based upon a combination of his recent accomplishments, and the favorable opportunity that awaits him this season. Not only has Watson finished at TE11 and TE7 during his last two seasons, but there is not another tight end currently lurking on the New Orleans roster that poses a genuine threat to siphon targets.

Still Hanging Tough

Watson’s Rise To Relevancy

After averaging largely insignificant reception and yardage totals in his first six seasons with New England (28 receptions/350 yards), Watson’s output rose during his three-year tenure with the Browns (51 receptions/558 yards). He began yet another three-year sequence with New Orleans in 2013, but averaged just modest results while operating behind Jimmy Graham during his initial two seasons as a Saint (19.5 receptions/181 yards). But his production soared during the final installment of that three-year span, as Watson achieved or matched career highs in receptions (74), yardage (825), and touchdowns (6), while generating the seventh most fantasy points at his position. Those numbers placed Watson either second or third on the team in each of those categories during his most prolific season, while also compelling the Ravens to secure him with a two-year contract.

Unfortunately, Watson missed the entire 2016 regular season with a torn Achilles, which quickly demolished Baltimore’s plan to deploy him extensively. However, he was allotted a respectable snap count in 2017 (699/64.3%), which helped him vault back to fantasy relevance (61 receptions/522 yards/4 touchdowns). Watson delivered low-end TE1 production while tying for seventh among all tight ends with 14 red zone targets, and finishing 14th with 79 targets overall. His 61 receptions led the Ravens, while also placing him eighth overall at his position, ahead of both Graham and Kyle Rudolph.

Fleener’s Failure = Watson’s Good Fortune

Meanwhile, Watson’s departure launched the forgettable Coby Fleener era for New Orleans, which was sufficiently disappointing for the Saints to abort what had initially been a five-year deal after just two seasons. The former Colt encountered difficulty comprehending Sean Peyton’s offense while averaging 36 receptions, 463 yards and 2.5 touchdowns in 27 games. This contributed mightily to Brees only targeting Saint tight ends on 11.9% of his passes last season, while accelerating an already rapid disintegration of the failed Fleener experiment.

However, this created an enormous opportunity for Watson to rejoin the potent attack of New Orleans. The Saints have ranked within the top five in total offense in 11 of the 12 years that Brees has performed under center, which clearly enables Watson to function on a unit that is decidedly more dynamic than last year's 27th ranked Raven attack.  Brees has already demonstrated his comfort level locating Watson, who was targeted a career-best 110 times in 2015. The veteran flourished while operating as the primary tight end in Peyton's offense, and is now primed to perform as the TE1 within this dynamic attack once again.

Addressing The Concerns

The Saints did run the ball 444 times in 2017, which was a dramatic increase from the 399.8 attempts that they averaged from 2011-2016. But even though an enhanced commitment to the ground game will remain intact, Brees should also generate more passing attempts than the uncharacteristically low 536 that he launched last season. His attempts appear destined to rise as New Orleans contends with a demanding schedule that includes eight contests against teams that participated in the postseason last season - Eagles/Vikings/Rams/Steelers/Panthers and Falcons twice. This daunting series of games should result in an increased reliance on Brees to guide the team’s passing attack, during what should be highly competitive matchups. This certainly will involve other receiving options beyond Watson, as Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara, Ted Ginn and Cameron Meredith can be expected to pilfer targets. However, Watson’s 14 red zone targets in 2017 placed him just behind Kamara (17) and Thomas (16), and his consistent involvement near the end zone should be sustained this season. He also performed on the third most offensive snaps among all tight ends in 2015 (984/85%), despite the presence of abundant receiving talent surrounding him on the Saints. His integral role within this explosive attack should resume, while serving to counterbalance any lingering concerns regarding his age.

An Enticing Late-Round Sleeper

His reemergence as a Saint bodes well for Watson, who nevertheless has engendered only a modest degree of interest. However, hesitant potential owners should reexamine the combination of favorable factors that will be present when Watson lines up this season. He will be the beneficiary of a reunion with Brees, and will be running routes as New Orleans' TE1. He could also provide immediate, high-quality production as the beneficiary of appealing matchups at the onset of the season. Between Weeks 2-7, the Saints will face four defensive units that were among the league’s most vulnerable when facing opposing tight ends last season, as the Browns, Giants, Redskins and Ravens all finished within the top eight in fantasy points allowed to the position.

This bodes well for Watson’s chances of accruing desirable numbers initially, while frequent targeting from Brees in the red zone should boost his chances of maintaining respectable numbers throughout the season. With only blocking specialists Josh Hill and Michael Hoomanawanui adjacent to Watson on the depth chart, he should be allotted opportunities with greater consistency than a number of tight ends that are being selected before him. The ensuing production should easily exceed the modest investment that his current 14th round ADP entails. It also provides an incentive for you to consider prioritizing him among your late round targets. Particularly since he presents you with a viable option at a position that is largely devoid of enticing choices.

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