August 22, 2017

Kevin Luchansky's top daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for 8/22/17. Expert MLB DFS advice, sleepers & player recommendations for FanDuel and DraftKings.

Good morning Rotoballers. We've got a 14-game slate to breakdown, so I wont waste much of your team with an intro. There are a healthy number of teams today with run projections north of five, meaning we'll have a lot of stacking options to chose from but the pitching isn't exactly beautiful.

Before I get into player analysis, a quick aside to call out those with attractive Vegas data and lines as of this writing. I will try to update this throughout the day, especially if there is significant line movement. As for now, the teams with the best offensive projections are the following: Orioles (5.9), Cubs (5.7), Twins (5.6), and the Indians, Braves and Mariners all at 5.3. Moneyline favorites aren't significant enough to report just yet, but more on that later.

In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on 8/22/17. The lineup picks will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options and value plays.

Let's get to it, shall we?

DFS Starting Pitchers to Consider

Chris Archer, TOR vs TBR (DK - $12,400, FD $10,200)

Archer's matchup isn't perfect, but he is the best pitcher on this slate, he's had success this season against this Blue Jays' lineup, and no one (on this slate) has the strikeout ceiling he possesses. Archer had a rough go at the beginning of the season but it's generally been smooth sailing since, and he's consistently hitting and surpassing his price implied value - something he's done in seven of his last 10 starts. For the year, he has a good WHIP (1.1), a pretty solid HR/9 (1.1) and an excellent K/9 mark of 11.06 - far and away the highest K/9 mark on the slate. This Blue Jays (projected) lineup doesn't strike out a ton, as they sit around 22% against righties, but it isn't a terrible number, either. In addition to good season-long numbers and a recent 10-strikeout performance against this Toronto team, he has pretty good Vegas data as well. Archer and the Rays currently sit at -195 favorites and the Jays run projection is just 3.5. I like him a lot in tournaments thanks to his strikeout ceiling, and he's a fine play in cash as well, but I do think you can afford to spend down in cash tonight.

Lance Lynn, SDP vs STL (DK - $7,400, FD - $8,000)

When I mentioned the possibility of paying down in cash games, Lynn is the first pitcher on this slate that comes to mind. He's been pretty consistent throughout the last month or two, and in his last 10 starts he's managed to hit and surpass value eight times. The 7.7 K/9 isn't stellar, but he does get a boost in that respect today thanks to San Diego's strikeout prone lineup - with their whopping 31% K rate against right-handed pitching this season. He's done a solid job of limiting base-runners (1.1 WHIP) and the HR/9 (1.3) isn't too concerning. His recent StatCast data is pretty favorable as well. At first glance, a 35% hard hit rate could be seen as a little concerning, but the hard contact he's allowing is generally driven into the ground. In that stretch, hitters have just a 28% fly ball rate and an average batted ball distance of 188 feet. And last, but not least, Lynn has always been a much stronger pitcher at home (where he'll be tonight) and the case is no different this season. On the road, he's allowed an overall .433 slugging percentage, compared to just a .323 mark in St. Louis.

DFS Infielders to Consider

Alex Avila - C, CHC @ CIN (DK - $3,800, FD - $2,800)

The Cubs have a super dreamy matchup, so expect to see a few of them in this article and sprinkle them into your lineups if you like points. Avila has been pretty hot all year, and nothing has changed except his uniform and the scenery. The lefty owns a .384 wOBA and .247 ISO split against right-handed pitching dating back to 2016 and he gets a park upgrade today against an awful pitcher in Homer Bailey.

Yonder Alonso, 1B, SEA @ ATL (DK - $4,400, FD - $3,100)

Alonso has been absolutely smashing the ball and I like the chances of him keeping that run going tonight with a pitcher on the hill he can take advantage of in a park that is a major upgrade for he and his Seattle teammates - especially the lefties. He carries a .377 wOBA and .223 ISO split into this game and in the last 15 days, his hard hit rate is an incredible 50% with an average batted ball distance of 241 feet.

Ozzie Albies - 2B, SEA vs ATL (DK - $$3,400, FD - $2,800)

If you haven't been paying attention lately, you may have missed the rise of mighty Ozzie Albies. The switch-hitting second baseman is producing big numbers from the bottom third of this Atlanta lineup and he's gone undervalued, overlooked or both. He's crushed value in four of his last five games, and while it's a small sample size, his wOBA and ISO splits showcase just how productive he's been - .448 wOBA, .500 ISO. His opponent, Marco Gonzales, has allowed over a .500 slugging percentage to right-handed batters for his career.

Kris Bryant - 3B, CHC @ CIN (DK - $5,000, FD - $4,300)

Kris Bryant and his teammates are going to have some fun in Cincinnati tonight. Not only is Homer Bailey extremely hit-able, but so is the entire Reds' bullpen. If the Cubs chase Bailey early from this contest, the matchups get even easier, as hard as that may be to believe. Bailey has allowed over a .400 wOBA to opponents this season and Bryant enters with strong splits - .382 wOBA and a .242 ISO. His StatCast data is also pretty appealing, particularly the 52% fly ball rate and 242 foot batted ball distance.

Francisco Lindor - SS, BOS vs CLE (DK - $4,600, DK - $3,700)

After a disappointing night, I think Lindor will bounce back in a big way tonight. It's not just a hunch, the numbers are there. First off, his Statcast data from the past 15 days is very, very strong. A 40% hard hit rate coupled with a 41% fly ball rate means bigger things are coming. On top of that, he's got good team context, the best spot in the order and owns a .308 wOBA and .408 slugging percentage split against right-handed pitching. His opponent, Doug Fister, has allowed over a .400 wOBA and .200 ISO in his past three starts.

DFS Outfielders to Consider

Mike Trout - OF, TEX vs LAA (DK - $5,600, FD - $4,800)

Poor Tyson Ross, the kid just hasn't figured it out since his return from the disabled list. Until he does figure it out, he's worth picking on, especially with studs like Trout. Trout has tremendous righty-righty splits, showcased by his massive .458 wOBA and .331 ISO. He enters tonight's game with favorable hard hit data (35%) and fly ball rates (51%) over the past two weeks.

Khris Davis - OF, OAK @ BAL (DK - $4,400, DK - $3,700)

Davis needs to cool it a bit with the strikeouts but even so, his recent fantasy point totals are really misleading. He's been making great contact with the ball, showcased by a hard hit rate over 40% in the month of August, but unfortunately that hasn't turned into production. Tonight, he gets a date with a pitcher in Ubaldo Jimenez that has been serviceable this year - and at times "good" - but he is prone to blowing up, too. Davis gets a park upgrade tonight and a date with a pitcher that has a 1.7 HR/9. To date, Davis owns a .295 ISO split.

Kyle Schwarber - OF, CHC @ CIN (DK - $4,100, FD - $3,500)

I won't beat you to death with more reasons why it's good to have Cubs on your roster tonight. Just know that, despite his troubles with strikeouts, he's still punishing baseballs with an over 40% hard hit rate in August. He also has a .251 ISO split dating back to last season.

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