Second Half Breakouts for Fantasy Baseball - Frank Ammirante's "My Guys"

July 10, 2026

Frank's second-half fantasy baseball breakouts for 2026. These are all MLB hitters and pitchers he's trying to get on his rosters via waiver wire or trade, including Samuel Basallo, Jac Caglianone, and more.

Every fantasy baseball season, you have to come up with a list of "My Guys." These are your favorite targets. The players you're willing to reach past ADP to ensure they're on your teams. This season, some of "My Guys" were major hits, like Munetaka Murakami and Jordan Walker, or huge misses, like Ronald Acuna Jr. and Cole Ragans.

But now, as we approach the second half of the season, we have to treat it like a chance for a fresh start. There's still enough time to turn your season around or to continue to strengthen your chances at a title. You can do this by finding your favorite targets for the second half, which you can grab off the waiver wire or through a trade.

That's where this column comes in. I'm going to give five of "My Guys" for the second half of the 2026 MLB season. These are players who I think will have a second-half surge. The actionable takeaway from this column would be to try to buy low before it's too late. With that said, I'll try to include players who are actually realistic to target. For example, your league mate with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. or Cal Raleigh isn't going to trade them to you so you can enjoy a second half that aligns more with their career norms. So, without further ado, let's get right into it.

Samuel Basallo, C, Baltimore Orioles

50% Rostered

Samuel Basallo came into the season as a highly touted prospect, considered to have the potential to become the best hitter among all catchers in MLB.

So far, it's been a rock-solid start to the season, where Basallo is slashing .256/.320/.465 with 14 home runs in 282 plate appearances. He's been hitting the ball hard, as highlighted by a 12.0% barrel rate. More importantly, just look at how Basallo has developed throughout the year so far.

• March/April: .232/.315/.439
• May: .338/.376/.597
• June: .205/.258/.325
• July: .250/.400/.750

Samuel Basallo extends the @Orioles lead 💥 pic.twitter.com/oyKGDzdXKk

— MLB (@MLB) July 4, 2026

Remember, this is a 21-year-old hitter in his first season in the big leagues. It's natural to expect him to improve as he gets more reps and adjusts to major league pitching. We've seen Basallo homer twice in his last four games, so he's starting to get hot at the plate.

I'm expecting him to have a monster second half, to the point where we're considering drafting Basallo among the top five catchers in baseball next season. Basallo checks every box: high barrel rate, good walk rate, hitter's park, and elite power. It wouldn't surprise me to see him finish with 30 home runs by the end of the year. He's that good.

Jac Caglianone, 1B/OF, Kansas City Royals

73% Rostered

I came into the season heavily targeting Jac Caglianone. After all, this was a top prospect with elite raw power, set to hit in Kauffman Stadium, where they made changes to turn it into a hitter's park.

After a slow start to the season, Caglianone now has a respectable overall slash line at .258/.322/.455 with 14 home runs in 329 plate appearances. When you look at his monthly splits, you come away feeling a lot more bullish about his rest-of-season outlook.

• March/April: .250/.333/.398
• May: .222/.271/.367
• June: .309/.387/.649
• July: .222/.214/.259

Jac Caglianone's first 54 games: 89 wRC+
Jac Caglianone's last 30 games: 148 wRC+

The @Royals 23-year-old slugger joined us in Studio 21 to break down his mindset at the plate and preparation that goes into each game. pic.twitter.com/kT02SMMsWA

— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) July 8, 2026

While he's gotten off to an abysmal start in July, we saw what he can do in June. He was absolutely on fire that month, giving us a glimpse of why he was such a highly touted prospect.

This is another hitter whom I expect to finish strong. Look for Caglianone to build off that excellent month of June, turning into a second-half surge.

Like Basallo, I'm betting that we're going to see Caglianone finish with 30 home runs. He's going to become a household name, especially when he likely tears it up at the Home Run Derby. Use this brief cold streak in July as a buy-low window before he truly erupts. All the ingredients are there: a young hitter with prodigious power finally adapts to the big leagues.

Cam Smith, OF, Houston Astros

11% Rostered 

Now it's time to dig a little deeper, starting with Cam Smith, who is currently slashing .223/.300/.379. Despite the underwhelming slash line, Smith has a fantasy-friendly profile, as highlighted by his 11 home runs and nine stolen bases in 348 plate appearances. The 23-year-old outfielder is playing at a 20-20 pace.

There's also reason to believe that the .223 batting average is an aberration, as Smith has respectable plate discipline metrics, including an 8.9% walk rate and a 23.9% strikeout rate.

His .266 BABIP is much lower than last year's .320 BABIP, so that feels like an unsustainable number, especially when you consider that Smith has an 11.7% barrel rate with 94th percentile sprint speed. You also have to like that Smith has 98th percentile bat speed, so there's a lot of potential in this profile.

Unlike Basallo and Caglianone, there are no monthly splits that are trending in the right direction with Smith. This is just a bet on loud tools. If the Astros continue to give him solid playing time, I wouldn't be surprised to see him get rolling.

Betting on tools is always a good idea. Just look at Jordan Walker. He always had great bat speed; he just couldn't put it all together. Now, he's been one of the most valuable outfielders in baseball this season. Don't count out Smith just because of a poor start.

Nolan McLean, SP, New York Mets

97% Rostered 

Nolan McLean came into the year with a ton of hype, but he's been a bit disappointing so far, putting up a 3.73 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP with a 28.0% strikeout rate and an 8.8% walk rate. With how good Jacob Misiorowski and Cam Schlittler have been, you can't help but feel like McLean has been a bit of a letdown in comparison.

But this is a pitcher with a 3.50 SIERA and a 108 Stuff+. His arsenal includes a wicked curveball, which is inducing a .145 xwOBA and a 40.0% whiff rate. We've seen McLean's elite ceiling at times this year, including seven shutout innings with nine strikeouts against the Reds on June 17. I'm betting that we're going to see McLean put it all together in the second half.

It's been a lost season for the Mets, but McLean has the stuff to become an ace. If your league mate is frustrated by his inconsistency, I'd try to make a move to buy low before it's too late.

Just look at the next pitcher on this list. He's turned his season around, and I'm betting that McLean will do the same.

Eury Perez, SP, Miami Marlins

48% Rostered 

Eury Perez is another pitcher whom I was heavily targeting this past draft season. His overall numbers look decent, including a 3.84 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP with a 27.6% strikeout rate and a 9.9% walk rate. But if we look a bit deeper, we see a lot of improvement.

Just look at Perez's last four starts:

• 7 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 8 K
• 5.1 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 4 BB, 8 K
• 4.2 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 1 K
• 4 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 9 K

As we can see here, he's been quite unhittable, allowing only five hits in 21 innings with four walks and 26 strikeouts. This is a case of a pitcher with elite talent who is finally figuring it out.

I'm expecting it to be wheels up for the rest of the season. If you were able to buy low on Perez, congratulations!

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