Second Half Breakouts for Fantasy Baseball - Joey Pollizze's "My Guys" (2026)

July 8, 2026

Joey's second-half fantasy baseball breakouts for 2026. The MLB hitters and pitchers he's looking to acquire, including Samuel Basallo, Emmet Sheehan, and more.

There are always unexpected players who break out in the second half of the fantasy season. These players then go on to become league winners for your fantasy baseball team. Remember Cade Horton's ascension to fantasy stardom last year, or Ben Rice's rise from a middle-tier fantasy catcher to one of the best over the final few months.

This season, fantasy managers should expect more out of the blue fantasy stars to pop up. With the All-Star break just days away, now is a good time to look at which players could break out down the stretch. This list will look at plenty of young players who will take their game to the next level in the second half.

So, let's look at six breakout candidates for the second half of the 2026 fantasy baseball season.

Cam Smith, OF Houston Astros

Houston Astros outfielder Cam Smith hasn't yet reached his full potential in the big leagues. He is slashing just .225/.298/.382 with 11 home runs, 13 doubles, 32 RBI, and nine stolen bases across 91 games this season and is on the waiver wire in most 12-team leagues. No one is really interested in riding with Smith in most fantasy leagues right now.

However, Smith is slowly but surely getting more comfortable at the plate. He has four home runs over his last 13 games and has a hit in seven of the past eight games. After a 2-for-3 hitting effort against the Washington Nationals on Monday, it's clear that the 23-year-old could really surprise a lot of fantasy managers in the second half.

Somebody check on that baseball! 🤯 pic.twitter.com/64SRvkFb8O

— Houston Astros (@astros) June 30, 2026

The biggest concern with his bat through the first couple of months was his troubles against off-speed pitches. He had a .083 batting average with a .083 slugging percentage against offspeed-type pitches in April and had a .211 batting average with a .393 expected slugging percentage against that same pitch type in May. In June, Smith had a .273 batting average with a .909 slugging percentage against those same pitches.

The young outfielder is also due for some positive regression moving forward. His expected slugging (.462) is 80 points higher than his actual slugging (.382), and Smith ranks in the upper half of the league in xwOBA (.339), barrel rate (12.3%), hard-hit rate (44.8%), bat speed (77.2 mph), and sprint speed (29.2 ft/sec).

Smith is definitely growing as a hitter, which is why a breakout is possible in the second half.

Jac Caglianone, OF, Kansas City Royals

Kansas City Royals outfielder Jac Caglianone is on the cusp of fully breaking out. The 23-year-old slugger had a strong stretch last month in which he slashed .373/.453/.773 with nine home runs, three doubles, 19 RBI, and two stolen bases across a 20-game stretch from June 1 to June 23. But the sky is really the limit for Caglianone in the second half.

Every fantasy manager should be looking to acquire the Royals outfielder over the next week. He showed in that 20-game sample that he can be an elite fantasy option and has the hitting tools to carry a fantasy team on his own. This is the same player who hit 35 home runs in his final college season at Florida in 2024 and 20 home runs across 66 games in the minors last year before being called up.

Caglianone just needed some time to adjust to the Major League level. Now that he has, he is really going to take off.

It wouldn't be surprising to see Caglianone hit close to 30 home runs with almost 10 stolen bases by the end of the season. He has looked like a different hitter at the plate over the past month, and his metrics suggest that he's here to stay. The lefty slugger has an elite .365 xwOBA, .274 expected batting average, .510 expected slugging, 93.8 mph average exit velocity, 15.5% barrel rate, 57.7% hard-hit rate, and a 77.2 mph bat speed.

Considering all seven of these metrics rank in the top 20% of the league, there might be no stopping Caglianone in the second half.

Dylan Crews, OF, Washington Nationals

Washington Nationals outfielder Dylan Crews has definitely had a disappointing start to his MLB career. The once No. 4 overall prospect in all of baseball has not lived up to that prospect status just yet. He batted just .208 with 10 home runs across 85 games last season and didn't even make Washington's Opening Day roster this year.

But since being called up in mid-May, Crews has shown some really encouraging things at the plate. He is slashing .226/.281/.371 with six home runs, 18 RBI, and five stolen bases in his first 42 games this season. While those numbers might not look like anything special on paper, his underlying metrics point to a potential breakout campaign in the final few months.

His .261 expected batting average is 35 points higher than his actual batting average (.226), and his .456 expected slugging percentage is 85 points higher than his actual slugging percentage (.371). If you also add in the fact that Crews has an above-average 44.2% hard hit rate, 90.9 mph average exit velocity, and a 73.7 mph bat speed, he has the makings of a potential breakout.

dylly dylly 🍻 pic.twitter.com/wPNYCGS8kd

— Washington Nationals (@Nationals) June 23, 2026

Whether Crews takes that next step and breaks out in his third Major League season will likely depend on his plate discipline. Both his whiff rate (29.2%) and chase rate (35.2%) need to massively improve before he can start to produce numbers at the plate.

Nevertheless, the offensive tools are there for him to explode on a really good Nationals offense. He continues to hit the ball hard, has a solid barrel rate (9.2%), and should remain a massive stolen base threat with a 29.3 ft/sec sprint speed (94th percentile). A 15-home run, 15-stolen base season while hitting .250 is certainly possible with his strong metrics.

Samuel Basallo, C, Baltimore Orioles

Fantasy managers have seen glimpses of Baltimore Orioles catcher Samuel Basallo's raw power early in the season. He hit four home runs in an 11-game stretch in mid-April, had another four homers in an 11-game stretch in mid-May, and has hit four home runs over his last 10 games dating back to June 24. When Basallo gets into a groove at the plate, he is one of the most dangerous hitters in the game.

With now 395 plate appearances under his belt in his MLB career, it's only a matter of time until the lefty slugger goes off. He continues to get more comfortable at the plate and could catch fire in the second half behind some strong metrics.

Basallo ranks in the 67th percentile in xwOBA (.342), 60th percentile in expected batting average (.257), 83rd percentile in expected slugging (.478), 82nd percentile in average exit velocity (91.3 mph), 78th percentile in barrel rate (12.2%), 73rd percentile in hard-hit rate (45.3%), and 79th percentile in bat speed (74.7 mph). For a 21-year-old hitter in his first full Major League season, those are all encouraging signs moving forward.

Samuel Basallo cranks a 3-run homer to get the @Orioles started 💥 pic.twitter.com/RgfwnvB4FS

— MLB (@MLB) July 4, 2026

Young hitters often take some time before fully breaking out. Basallo has no doubt had some struggles over the past month, as he is slashing just .209/.280/.385 with five home runs, eight runs scored, and 17 RBI since June 1. But the Orioles catcher has the makings to be that league winner down the stretch

He continues to hit fastballs well (.268 batting average with a .536 slugging percentage), and when he's in a groove at the plate, there's no stopping him. If he gets hot in the second half, a 30-homer campaign is possible.

Emmet Sheehan, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers

Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Emmet Sheehan might be one of the biggest fantasy disappointments in the first half of the season. Sheehan was a popular breakout pick entering the 2026 season. He posted a 2.82 ERA and a 30.6% strikeout rate in his limited innings with the Dodgers last year and threw the ball well in his final two appearances in the World Series.

Fantasy managers who were high on Sheehan, though, were just a bit too early on this breakout pick.

Although Sheehan currently owns a whopping 4.91 ERA across 77 innings pitched this season, the Dodgers right-hander has breakout written all over him in the second half. He is still missing bats at an elite clip, and his expected numbers suggest that he'll be a much better fantasy pitcher in the coming weeks and months.

For starters, Sheehan's expected ERA (3.93) sits 98 points below his actual ERA (4.91). That's the No. 1 indicator that he might not be pitching as badly as his numbers say. Additionally, his chase rate (35%), whiff rate (30.8%), strikeout rate (26.1%), walk rate (7.6%), K-BB% (18.5%), and swinging strike rate (14.6%) all rank extremely well at this point in the season.

If you combine his positive ERA regression with his elite strikeout metrics, you are looking at a pitcher who could emerge as a top fantasy pitcher in the second half. Sheehan has shown that he can get swing-and-misses on all of his pitches. All four of his pitches (four-seam fastball, changeup, slider, and curveball) have a whiff rate above 23% this season, and his slider leads the way in this department with a 39.4% whiff rate.

Trust the stuff and make a move for the Dodgers right-hander before his fantasy value rises.

Reid Detmers, SP/RP, Los Angeles Angels

Los Angeles Angels starting pitcher Reid Detmers is enjoying a solid all-around season in his return to the rotation. Some would even say that the southpaw is in the midst of a breakout season after finishing with a 6.70 ERA in his last season as a starter in 2024. While that might be the case, the best of Detmers is still not even here yet.

That's ultimately why he's featured on this list. He is going to break out even more in the second half and could finish as a top-25 starting pitcher by the end of the 2026 season.

Detmers currently owns a 4.13 ERA across 104 2/3 innings pitched this season. However, both his expected ERA (3.19) and FIP (3.08) are more than 100 points lower than his actual ERA. That is eventually going to even out, especially since the Angels left-hander ranks in the 80th percentile in expected batting average (.215), 76th percentile in whiff rate (28.8%), and 78th percentile in strikeout rate (27.1%).

The 26-year-old's ability to miss bats at a high clip will help carry him to new heights in the second half. He has a strong 12.3% swinging strike rate, and hitters have been unable to hit Detmers' breaking stuff this year. His Breaking Run Value currently ranks in the 100th percentile.

If Detmers is also eventually traded at the deadline, that would help his fantasy value tremendously. The Angels' defense hasn't helped his numbers by any means, as Los Angeles ranks 26th in Defensive Runs Saved at -11. Depending on where he lands at the deadline, Detmers could go from that 4.13 ERA to a sub-3.20 pitcher with an improved defense playing behind him.

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