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Bruno's overvalued fantasy football players to avoid for 2026. These players are being drafted too early in the first round of drafts: De'Von Achane, Trey McBride, and CeeDee Lamb.
Fantasy football drafts are already underway, and the picks you make in the first round will define your season before it begins. Last year, De'Von Achane emerged as one of fantasy's most explosive backs, finishing as a top-5 running back with 20.2 PPR points per game. Trey McBride shattered the NFL record for receptions by a tight end, posting 126 catches for 1,239 yards and 11 touchdowns. CeeDee Lamb was still among the most-targeted receivers in the league. On paper, all three look like first-round anchors.
On paper is the problem. Each of these players carries a risk that their current ADP ignores entirely. Drafting them at cost means paying for a best-case outcome from a player whose situation, scheme, or supporting cast has materially changed.
Here are three first-round names to avoid in 2026 and better options available at similar or later draft positions.
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Overvalued Fantasy Football WR in the First Round
CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys
Nobody is saying CeeDee Lamb is a bad football player. He is one of the best receivers in the NFL. The problem is that you are not drafting who he is. You are drafting who he was in 2023.
That season, Lamb averaged 23.8 PPR points per game as the unquestioned alpha of a Dallas offense built entirely around him. That version of Lamb does not exist anymore. In 2025, he averaged 14.4 points per game, a number that ranked just 15th at the position.
George Pickens arrived and immediately ate into his target share, pulling in 99 targets to Lamb's 116 in their 12 games together while posting virtually identical PPR totals. New head coach Brian Schottenheimer is leaning toward a more balanced, run-friendly approach.
The passing game now has to feed Pickens, Jake Ferguson, and a backfield that expects more involvement. That is a lot of mouths for an offense that is no longer built to stuff everything through one receiver.
Lamb will get his targets. He will have big games. But a WR4 price, currently around pick eight to 11 overall, demands a return to his 2023 peak in an environment that looks a lot more like 2025. That is a bet the market keeps making, and it is a bet that keeps not paying off.
Draft Drake London instead. The Falcons receiver put up a 68-919-7 line in just 12 games in 2025 before a knee injury cut his season short, and has recently led all NFL wide receivers in red-zone target share at around 42%. He is 24 years old, the clear No. 1 option in Atlanta's passing game, and he is sitting in the 17 to 20 overall range in redraft leagues and typically going around 2.05 on Underdog while Lamb is going in the top 10.
London was the WR3 in PPR points per game through the first 11 weeks of 2025 before the injury. Cleaner target tree, younger player, significantly lower price. That is what smart first-round management looks like.
Overvalued Fantasy Football TE in the First Round
Trey McBride, TE, Arizona Cardinals
What McBride did in 2025 was genuinely historic. His 126 receptions set the NFL record for catches by a tight end. His 1,239 yards and 11 touchdowns produced 18.6 PPR points per game, more than 100 fantasy points clear of the TE2 over the full season. Nobody is questioning the talent. The question is whether any of those conditions survive into 2026.
They probably do not. Arizona threw 649 passes last season, the most in the NFL, and a significant chunk of that volume came from chasing games. The Cardinals lost their final nine, six of those by at least three scores.
McBride caught 34 balls for 357 yards and five touchdowns in games where Arizona trailed by more than 16 points. Those same garbage-time scripts produced just nine catches for 102 yards in 2024. That difference alone explains a massive portion of his statistical leap, and the Cardinals are not going to be down four scores nine times again.
The coaching change is just as damaging. Outgoing offensive coordinator Drew Petzing ran one of the most tight-end-friendly offenses in football, sending 27% of team targets to the position over three seasons.
New head coach Mike LaFleur comes from the Rams, where that number sat at 18%. Arizona also used the third overall pick on running back Jeremiyah Love, which tells you everything about the direction this offense is heading. Even if McBride finishes as the TE1 again in 2026, he is unlikely to do it at a level that justifies a second-round pick on Underdog.
Draft Colston Loveland instead. The Bears' second-year tight end posted 58 receptions for 713 yards and six touchdowns as a rookie, then completely took over down the stretch, averaging 16.8 PPR points per game with a 29% target share across his final five games, including the playoffs.
Caleb Williams posted a 134.7 passer rating targeting Loveland last season, going 28-of-37 with no interceptions. His yards per route run as a rookie ranked third among all tight ends since 2011, behind only Brock Bowers and Kyle Pitts Sr. Loveland is available at Underdog ADP 46.5 overall, nearly two full rounds after McBride, in an ascending Bears offense where he projects as the favorite to lead the team in targets. That is not a gamble. That is a steal.
Overvalued Fantasy Football RB in the First Round
De'Von Achane, RB, Miami Dolphins
Achane was spectacular in 2025. He racked up 1,350 rushing yards, 488 receiving yards, and 12 total touchdowns on 305 touches, finishing at 20.2 PPR points per game as a legitimate RB1. He earned every bit of that first-round price. In 2025, at least. The problem is that 2026 looks nothing like the offense that produced those numbers.
Mike McDaniel is gone. Tua Tagovailoa is gone. What replaces them is first-year head coach Jeff Hafley, offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, and quarterback Malik Willis, a running QB whose career scramble rate of 15% dwarfs Tua's 2.5%.
That gap matters more than people realize. Over the past two seasons, McDaniel's motion-heavy scheme generated 31 motion targets for Achane in 2024 and 20 more in 2025, making him one of the most schemed-in receiving backs in the league. Slowik is not running that offense, and Willis is not checking down at Tua's rate.
It gets worse. Miami traded Jaylen Waddle this offseason, leaving a receiver room headlined by Jalen Tolbert and Tutu Atwell. Defenses will stack the box, knowing there is nobody else to beat them.
And with Willis scrambling instead of dumping off, the receiving volume that made Achane a weekly difference-maker is not coming back. Even Tyreek Hill saw it coming, telling reporters at Dolphins training camp last August that Achane needs to come off the field on 3rd-and-short because he simply is not a power back.
Achane can still have a fine season. He cannot be a first-round value in this offense.
Draft James Cook III instead. Cook led the NFL in rushing yards in 2025 with 1,621, averaged 5.2 yards per carry, and scored 14 total touchdowns. He is 26 years old, plays in one of the most consistently high-scoring offenses in the league, and has improved every single season of his career.
His Underdog ADP is comparable to Achane's current price, and he comes with none of the quarterback chaos, scheme overhaul, or empty skill-position depth dragging Miami's outlook down.
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