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Koby's best MLB player prop bets for today (7/12/2026). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Ben Rice, Casey Schmitt, and others!
Welcome Back, RotoBallers! I've got some work to do; in my last article, I wasn't able to nail at least one, and that always hurts. So hopefully I can redeem myself and get you guys a couple of bangers. This is the last day before the All-Star break, so let's cap the first half of the season with a bang! All 30 teams on deck, so let's dive in!
In this article, I'll be going over my four favorite home run props. Make sure to check out the RotoBaller Discord, where you can find input from all our experts, including more home run spots and some great strikeout picks.
Below, you'll be able to read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Sunday, July 12, 2026. The current odds given reflect the best price as of the time of publication, but remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks so you can get the most value on your home run wagers. Odds can vary significantly from one sportsbook to another.
MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (7/12/2026)
Pete Alonso OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+335 DraftKings)
I am a little bit scared of the wind here; at the moment, it is looking like we are going to get some winds blowing in, but Pete Alonso has a lot of power and has dominated righties this season. He gets a great matchup here going against Seth Lugo. Alonso has some solid reverse splits; he has been much better against RHP compared to lefties this season. 17 of his team-leading 21 home runs have come against RHP.
Lugo is having a bit of a rough year after a stellar season for the Royals last year. He has given up 14 homers on the season, eight of which have come against righties this season. Even though he has seen half the amount of righties compared to lefties, his numbers are significantly worse. RHH are sporting a .500 SLG, .242 ISO, 13.3% Barrel%, and a 40.7% HardHit%. We have also seen quite a bit of regression lately.
In Lugo's last three starts, he has given up seven home runs. That is half of his season home runs in just three games! As for Alonso, against RHP, he is hitting them for a .526 SLG, .261 ISO, 16.2% Barrel%, and a 52.5% HardHit%. In his last outing against a righty, he went yard against Colin Rea, with another home run liable pitcher on the mound in Lugo; this lines up for another great spot for Alonso.
If you are looking for something a little juicier in odds, Blaze Alexander has looked fantastic and is recently coming off a homer against Luinder Avila. He has been hitting the ball hard and is one of the only other righties on the team projected to be in the lineup against Lugo today.
Pete Alonso swats a dead center shot to extend the lead for the @Orioles 🐻❄️ pic.twitter.com/JCLVx9xV7r
— MLB (@MLB) July 12, 2026
Alec Burleson OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+470 FanDuel)
I was going against JR Ritchie in his first start, and I'll do it again! Ritchie re-enters the rotation after the Braves optioned Hurston Waldrep back down to Triple-A. Ritchie has been relatively decent for an injury-ridden Braves rotation, but I still think there is plenty to attack on him here. The lefties have hit him well both in the Majors and Minors this season; six of his seven home runs have come from lefties.
Ritchie has a 4.60 ERA on the season, and it's primarily due to the lefties doing damage. They are sporting a .471 SLG, .221 ISO, 11.7% Barrel%, and a 45.5% HardHit%. I think the Braves are trying to squeak one by and get one last win in before the break. Dustin May hasn't been anything special either. Ritchie might have his hands full against the five lefties the Cardinals are likely to roll out with.
There have been a couple of lefties for the Cardinals that have hit RHP well, but Alec Burleson has been all-around elite against them. He has a batting average of .309 against righties. He is also sporting team highs in SLG with a .553 and ISO of .244. While also hitting a solid 14.3% Barrel% and a 51.2% HardHit%.
The biggest thing I like about Burleson, though, he lines up extremely well with Ritchie's pitch mix. He primarily throws the Four-Seamer, Changeup, and Curveball. All three of those have accounted for eight of Burleson's 13 home runs against RHP. I think we are getting some solid value on Burleson here, who is lining up great here against Ritchie.
