Running Back Matchups to Target for Week 13 (2025) - Kyren Williams, James Cook III, Travis Etienne Jr., Jaylen Warren

Thunder Dan's favorite RB matchups to exploit for Week 13 of 2025 - DFS running backs to target on DraftKings and FanDuel. These RB matchups are GPP and cash game opportunities.

There are three running backs on the 10-game main slate who have massive usage - as both a runner and a receiver - which gives them an incredibly high floor. I'm talking about Christian McCaffrey, Bijan Robinson, and De'Von Achane, of course, three backs who rank in the top five of the league in opportunity share with at least 35% of their teams' rushes and targets. Those three backs are firmly in play this week, but their matchups didn't crack the top four, so this article is NOT about them!

The primary focus of this piece is NFL DFS; however, these are also running backs you should smash into your season-long lineups and great candidates for prop bets.

We also have lots of great NFL DFS articles and NFL DFS tools to help you win MORE this season! Without any further ado, here are my top four matchups for the main slate of NFL games on Sunday, December 1.

Week 13 Running Back Matchups

In my constant search for usable metrics, I crunched the first 12 weeks of data. The first column shows the overall offensive rushing attack vs. the opponent, calculated from each team's offensive and defensive DVOA.

The second column is the offensive vs. defensive line matchup, calculated from each team's "adjusted line yards" created and allowed. The third column is simply Pro Football Focus's run-blocking grade for each team's offensive line.

James Cook ($7,600 DK, $8.800 FD)

Buffalo Bills at Pittsburgh Steelers

Between all the good offenses being scheduled to play on Thursday or Friday this week and the cold weather forecast for this weekend, this Bills-Steelers game actually carries the highest game total (45.5) of any game on the main slate.

That tells you all you need to know about this slate - it has the potential to be an ugly one, but also one that is far less chalky than many of the prior weeks this season. Cook projects as only the fifth-highest rostered back on Sunday per my projections, which provides a nice opportunity to gain some leverage on the field if he can turn in another 100-yard game with a touchdown.

JAMES COOK 45-YARD HOUSE CALL!

BUFvsHOU on Prime Video
Also streaming on @NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/QS19hAa6dx

— NFL (@NFL) November 21, 2025

That's something he's done already five times this season, including last week when he went 17-116-1 against a pretty darn good Houston defense. It's actually a better matchup this week as the Steelers defense, despite their reputation, is actually quite mediocre - ranking 20th against the run this season.

The Steelers have been effective at creating turnovers, sure, but when teams run right at them and attempt to win the line of scrimmage, it's worked fairly often. The Bills are going to do just that, you can bet on it, as they bring the second-ranked rushing attack in the league into Pittsburgh for a game with big-time AFC playoff implications.

Kyren Williams ($6,600 DK, $8,500 FD)

L.A. Rams at Carolina Panthers

He's back again! Another week and another mention of Kyren Williams as the Rams' running game is set for another solid matchup against the Carolina Panthers in Week 13.

There's only one good reason NOT to play Kyren this week, and that's because you think the Rams blow the doors off the Panthers (as they did to the Bucs last week) and that Williams doesn't find the end zone. Last week, Williams handled just 13 touches as the Rams were uber-efficient in the passing game and built a big lead early. They've been nearly unstoppable during this six-game win streak, which has allowed Sean McVay to lighten Williams' workload by giving Blake Corum 35% or more of the touches in five straight games.

So with the Rams in top form and 10.5-point favorites in this one, is there a chance that happens again? Sure, it could, which is why he's not a cash game play since we really can't safely predict his opportunities.

However, Williams still owns a 56.4% Red Zone rushing share and could find the end zone more than once in this one if the Rams stop throwing it to Davante Adams at the goalline every time down (this is actually okay with me, as I predicted Adams would lead the NFL in receiving TDs this year).

The Panthers have allowed the eighth-most rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs, and I don't want to assume that the Rams win easily in this one. If Carolina offers just enough resistance for L.A. to keep their foot on the gas (and Williams in the backfield), then he has the potential for his biggest game in weeks. The Rams' rushing attack is THAT good, I really don't want to fade it entirely in this spot.

Travis Etienne Jr. ($6,500 DK, $7,300 FD)

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans

A lot of analysts have been calling for the "Tuten takeover" and for the rookie to get more opportunities than the established veteran ETN. But this amounted to nothing more than a bunch of "wishcasting" where you HOPE that an NFL coach gives the guy on your fantasy football team a bigger role, even though his team is winning behind the solid play of the back in front of him.

Shot out of a cannon 🚀@swaggy_t1 | #JAXvsAZ on CBSpic.twitter.com/sd9ixld3ED

— Jacksonville Jaguars (@Jaguars) November 23, 2025

I have nothing against Bhayshul Tuten, and he's looked impressive at times, but Travis Etienne Jr. is having a fantastic season and has given us no reason to think that he's going to give up that lead-back role anytime soon. The Jags continue to run the football effectively and enter this week ranked ninth in DVOA rushing offense. And even though they are facing a Tennessee team that ranks just 28th in DVOA rushing defense, ETN is going to get overlooked again in DFS for a few reasons.

The first has to do with the timeshare with Tuten, as we always gravitate towards the volume plays (I mentioned the big three in the intro) and backs who may see more touches because the other back in their committee is injured (think Kareem Hunt the last few weeks).

The other has to do with his price as he continues to be priced in the mid-tier, or as I call it, "the dead zone." These mid-priced players often make for the best tournament plays as they bring a similar ceiling as the top-priced backs, but carry far less rostership because of their lower floor.

The Titans allowed over 100 yards on the ground to Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet last week. Walker had more yards from scrimmage, but it was Charbs who got the lone rushing TD for Seattle. I'm less worried about that type of finish for ETN this week, as he has twice the red zone carries of Tuten. He doesn't need to have a huge day in terms of yardage to be a winning DFS play. He's averaged 20 DK points the last two weeks with rushing totals of just 73 and 86 yards.

Jaylen Warren ($6,300 DK, $7,200 FD)

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Buffalo Bills

Several factors line up for Warren here to potentially have a big day against the Bills. The first one would be that the Steelers are going back to Aaron Rodgers at quarterback, even though he's nursing a broken wrist. They've really only asked Rodgers to be a game manager this year, and that should continue this week as Pittsburgh knows they don't have a chance of winning this game with Rodgers dropping back more than 30 times.

We've seen the formula for beating the Bills this season - run the football against their 31st-ranked run defense, control the clock, and keep Josh Allen off the field as much as possible. Allen, when playing with a lead and a successful run game, is a world-beater, but when playing from behind and facing pressure (Pittsburgh does have a good pass rush), he's still prone to making some bad reads and forcing throws into coverage.

Warren handled 18 carries last week for 68 yards against the Bears, adding a touchdown. While Kenneth Gainwell has worked his way into the smaller half of a timeshare, most of his work has come as a third-down back and pass-catcher, as it's becoming a much more predictable committee here later in the season. Expect Warren to get fed as many carries as he can handle, and with the improvement that the Steelers' offensive line has made this season, he could find some holes to spurt through for big gains.

Warren is an explosive runner who is also incredibly physical for his size. I think Gainwell's presence is dragging down his projected rostership on this slate, which is fine by me because it just means more leverage for me over the field on a great player.

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