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Scott looks at early fantasy football ADP trends in FFPC dynasty fantasy football startups for 2024. Target and avoid these players in drafts based on ADP.
Most yearly fantasy football drafts are held in the summer. Fantasy leaguers want to see how preseason player reports shape their cheat sheets and approaches prior to drafting. Those who participate in dynasty leagues focus on the longer view. Dynasty players are now actively drafting.
The Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC) is a prime destination for dynasty players. Startup dynasty league slots are now available at various entry fee levels and in multiple formats. I personally lean toward the slow draft leagues, as they provide consistent anticipation of new picks.
Here is an early look at some featured players from the RotoBaller FFPC Average Draft Position Reports. I spotlight guys who are being overdrafted or underrated based on the latest and early standard dynasty FFPC ADPs.
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FFPC Dynasty Startup Player Trends And Analysis
Bijan Robinson (10.3): I can’t say anything negative about the dynasty potential of Robinson, but when you can get Breece Hall six players later and three more possible high-quality seasons out of Christian McCaffrey at 19.9, I would consider pivoting to Amon-Ra St. Brown or Marvin Harrison Jr. instead. Taking Robinson as the fourth player off the board is not a bad pick at all, yet many other appealing RBs are positioned as value plays. Only three RBs appear in the top 25 of the most recent FFPC Dynasty Startup ADP report.
Odds to lead the league in rushing (Caesars)
• CMC +350
• Jonathan Taylor (+650)
• Saquon Barkley (+800)
• Breece Hall (+800)
• Derrick Henry (+1100)
• Kyren Williams (+1000)
• Bijan Robinson (+1800)
• Josh Jacobs (20/1)
• Isaiah Pacheco (20/1)
• Zamir White (22/1)
•…— Connor Allen (@ConnorAllenNFL) June 6, 2024
Patrick Mahomes (11.3): He is the best QB in real life and is guaranteed to be a top-four QB for many years to come. Mahomes is a safe, high-level pick, but I am just not a backer of drafting him as the seventh player overall in the dynasty startup format.
As with the picks I feature ahead and behind Mahomes here, it’s not a terrible move at all to draft the player at this spot. But you have to strongly consider a top WR or RB so early in the draft. It’s a matter of preference for me not to take Mahomes ahead of Josh Allen, who always finishes in the top two at QB, or to wait a bit longer for a QB1.
Garrett Wilson (17.5): I am not an anti-Wilson type at all. I do consider, though, the age of Aaron Rodgers and how much longer he can play. Durability can also be an issue this late in his career, regardless of last year’s injury, and a sharp decline in play can happen at any time. Plus, we don’t know where the Jets are headed at QB in the post-Rodgers world. These minor concerns might cause me to pass on Wilson at this slot when faced with a tight draft decision.
Anthony Richardson (25.3): From an overall perspective, Richardson’s ADP doesn’t seem to be overly low. When you consider C.J. Stroud is being taken at 13.5, though, the Colts’ potential star is at least a minor value. I do prefer Richardson over Stroud in seasonal and dynasty leagues because of his significant upside as a dual-threat performer. I have the two QBs ranked right next to each other and will always take the running QB in a close call.
Tyreek Hill (26.7): A case can be made that Hill is the best WR in fantasy football right now. His ADP is nine spots behind Garrett Wilson and six behind Puka Nacua because the Miami standout is 30 years old. Wide receivers often don’t start declining until age 32 or 33. I want to win this year and next year, too, and I will get 2-3 more good seasons out of Hill. I obviously like Wilson and Nacua, but I don’t draft with an eye on 5-10 years down the line all the time.
Dalton Kincaid (31.7): I do like where Kincaid is going so far in dynasty startup drafts. The 2024 season might be a breakthrough campaign for him and it is possible that the second-year TE could begin a rise to becoming a Mark Andrews type in the Buffalo offense. The Bills have apparently cleared a path for him to become their No. 1 pass-catcher as soon as this year. Kincaid’s ADP is very fair, especially in the FFPC TE premium format.
The @SmashAccept team is buying Dalton Kincaid in all formats of Dynasty Fantasy Football
Here's Why 👇 https://t.co/vjJlxC8ITp
— Snoog’s Dynasty Society (@FFSnoog) May 7, 2024
Justin Herbert (41.5): A thinner receiving crew and a heavier emphasis on the running game in Los Angeles under a new regime are real issues in all fantasy formats. I am passing on Herbert for sure when Trevor Lawrence is available at 56.4 and Brock Purdy has an ADP of 56.9.
Kyren Williams (49.8): There is some widespread skepticism that Williams may be ticketed for a lesser overall role because of the drafting of Blake Corum. I do see Williams continuing to operate as the lead RB, while Corum is more of a complementary/backup type. Landing the Rams’ top RB just before the 50 mark seems like a good play, especially for the next two years or so, at minimum. Keep in mind that Williams will be just 24 years old when the 2024 season starts.
DK Metcalf (52.0): I fully expect Jaxon Smith-Njigba to begin his ascension this season. Metcalf, however, remains the alpha WR. Under a new coaching staff starting this season, he could certainly vault back into fantasy WR1 status this year or next. The Seahawks star is a good upside pick at this ADP.
Isiah Pacheco (61.1): The Kansas City RB is 25 years old, and his best season or seasons might be ahead. Pacheco is a relentless and determined runner who is the clear No. 1 RB and goal-line finisher for a top-notch offense. Seeing him being drafted in this range tempts me to take a zero RB approach in some dynasty startup drafts.
Drake Maye (80.4): The New England rookie might not even start for most of his first NFL season, and the receiving crew is very thin and inexperienced. Why take Maye in this range when you can bet on a Bryce Young turnaround in Year 2 at 111.8? Will Levis also has some potential for a breakthrough in the next two seasons at 121.1.
D'Andre Swift (81.50): The newest Bears RB is a terrific bargain at this ADP. Chicago has pinpointed Swift to lead a backfield that had been previously lacking stability. Swift is 25 years old and will be an instantly important offensive mate for Caleb Williams in run support and as a pass-catcher out of the backfield. We have not seen the very best of Swift over a full season yet, and it’s coming soon.
Justin Fields (135.0): I don’t expect the Russell Wilson era to last too long in Pittsburgh, and the former Bears QB could push him for playing time as soon as this year. Once Fields reclaims a starting job, he will have top 6-8 fantasy promise based on the rushing ability we have already seen.
Working on a project for the channel... But just wanted to drop this clip to remind everyone that Justin Fields is one of the most gifted athletes that we've ever seen play the QB position at the NFL level. pic.twitter.com/B1yaZLeWmh
— Derrick (@Steelers_DB) June 17, 2024
Roman Wilson (139.7): Another Pittsburgh value target. The Steelers head into training camp with a mishmash of mediocre veteran WR types all battling for the No. 2 WR job. It may be just a matter of time before Wilson secures that job, and if the rookie seizes the role in 2024, it won’t be a big surprise.
Quentin Johnston (146.4): His awful rookie season has apparently scared off any optimism from a lot of high-stakes players. There is an obvious opportunity to climb the Chargers' WR depth chart quickly, though, and Johnston could certainly turn his outlook around in the next two seasons. In this range of draft picks, you certainly have to take the shot.
Scott Engel's fantasy and betting analysis is also featured at The Game Day.
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