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Congratulations to you, dear reader, for surviving the Week 13 BYEpocalypse and inching that much closer to the playoff window. Making adds with playoff matchups in mind is great, but make sure you get there first! As always, joining our famous waiver wire pickups list and our weekly fantasy football waiver wire columns by position, this column focuses on suggested waiver wire bidding percentages for fantasy football owners in leagues using a Free Agent Acquisition Budget (FAAB).
As a caveat, these prices do not indicate how much these free-agent players will go for. Each league values players differently and will continue to do so. These values provide a baseline or priority order to understand roughly how much you should be looking to spend on a particular player, but we've now added different categories of bids to reflect team-need situations.
After the horrible six-team bye of Week 13, we're only without two teams (Arizona and Washington) in Week 14. There are few excuses left to not have your depth padded out for the playoffs. Here are my median FAAB bid ranges and adds going into Week 14.
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FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Quarterbacks
Gardner Minshew (QB, IND) - 23% rostered
FAAB Bid: 2-4%
Aggressive Bid: 4-6%
Minshew’s first 300-yard game since Week 7 fueled Indy’s 31-28 overtime victory over the Titans. He showed good timing on the deep ball as the Colts weren’t afraid to take shots to overcome Tennessee’s run defense.
Zack Moss has been good but missing Jonathan Taylor will put more offensive burden on Minshew’s shoulders. He remains in the streaming conversation as Indy travels to Cincinnati next week. Perhaps he can keep chiseling away at correcting this odd record?
A stat that took me by surprise. Gardner Minshew passed for 312 yards and 2 TDs in Colts win at Titans. It was first time he led a team to a W by throwing for 300+. Had lost his first 8 300+ games.
— Mike Chappell (@mchappell51) December 4, 2023
Jameis Winston (QB, NO) - 1% rostered
FAAB Bid: 1-3%
Aggressive Bid: 3-5%
Winston completed 2-of-5 passes for 41 yards in relief of an injured Derek Carr on Sunday. It could’ve been worse, as Winston’s first pass was tip-drilled into Chris Olave’s hands for 30 yards. Carr is dealing with shoulder and rib injuries, while also progressing through concussion protocol.
The Saints shouldn’t need Winston to press much in Week 14 with Carolina coming to New Orleans, but does Winston know how to play mildly? Expect some Taysom Hill utilization, but also deep shots to Olave and crew that could supply a high-end QB2 day.
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Running Backs
Ezekiel Elliott (RB, NE) - 40% rostered
FAAB Bid: 40-50%
Aggressive Bid: 50-65%
Desperation Bid: 65-75%
Elliott looks like New England’s new lead back as Rhamondre Stevenson may miss multiple weeks due to an ankle injury. The Pats were shut out as Bailey Zappe surprisingly didn’t fix all of their glaring issues. Zeke becomes the only reliable producer on the team, as he turned 21 touches into 92 total yards.
He barely averaged three yards a carry (17-52-0) but tacked on another 40 yards through the air on four catches. His versatility can float him as an every-down back, giving him low-end RB2 value even if the touchdown equity is minimal. Unfortunately, NE travels to Pittsburgh this Thursday before games against KC, DEN, and BUF.
Roschon Johnson (RB, CHI) - 23% rostered
FAAB Bid: 15-20%
Aggressive Bid: 20-30%
Desperation Bid: 30-55%
Nothing "new" here with Chicago on bye, but recall Johnson was their lead back in Week 12, tallying 75 yards on 15 touches even with Khalil Herbert back. Herbert had 38 yards on eight touches and D'Onta Foreman (ankle) was out. Will Chicago prioritize the rookie in their final four games, or will it be a maddening three-man RB carousel once Foreman is back?
Final Bears RB snaps -
Roschon Johnson - 51 (75%)
Khalil Herbert - 15 (22%)— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) November 28, 2023
Tyjae Spears (RB, TEN) - 35% rostered
FAAB Bid: 15-20%
Aggressive Bid: 20-30%
Desperation Bid: 30-50%
Spears took over for an injured Derrick Henry (head) in the fourth quarter, which led to nearly 50 additional yards of work on the day. He would finish with 88 total yards on 20 touches, with four receptions in three of his last five games now. This underscores the importance of stashing depth/handcuffs.
He’s capable of lead-back duties, but his upside is capped by Will Levis and the overall offensive struggles. Still, if Henry misses Week 14 at Miami then Spears is an easy start for the volume alone. (It does not appear this will be the case as Henry is reportedly not in concussion protocol as of Monday evening.) Spears was the only other RB on Tennessee’s 53-man roster and I don’t think practice-squader Jonathan Ward is going to poach much work if Henry is ever out.
Kenneth Gainwell (RB, PHI) - 27% rostered
FAAB Bid: 5-10%
Aggressive Bid: 10-15%
Desperation Bid: 15-20%
Philly’s rushers struggled against San Francisco’s front seven on Sunday, combining for 20 yards on nine carries. Gainwell was the best receiver, hauling five catches for 42 yards in the 42-19 defeat. Beyond D'Andre Swift’s ineffectiveness (6-13 rushing, 2-7 receiving), the story was Swift getting laid out late.
He was slow to get up and might be A-OK, but it still underscores the importance of rostering Gainwell as insurance. Week 14 at Dallas will be gritty, but then games against SEA, NYG, and ARI could be blowouts with 200 rushing yards to go around.
Chase Brown (RB, CIN) - 1% rostered
FAAB Bid: 0-3%
Aggressive Bid: 3-6%
Desperation Bid: 6-10%
Brown had over 60 yards in his return to action on Monday night. Joe Mixon remains the clear No. 1 back, scoring two touchdowns on MNF, but Brown’s explosiveness makes him the handcuff to roster. Jake Browning’s Bengals showed fight so don’t write off Brown as a low-tier handcuff just because Joe Burrow is no longer the QB.
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Wide Receivers
Noah Brown (WR, HOU) - 40% rostered
FAAB Bid: 40-60%
Aggressive Bid: 60-80%
Desperation Bid: 80-100%
Brown’s goose egg in the box score may be a blessing for those strapped for FAAB. Tank Dell’s electric rookie season is over with a broken fibula and Brown is the next man up. I’m not sure why someone with Dell’s frame was near the goal-line scrum, but so be it.
Brown only had two targets with zero catches in Houston’s Week 13 victory, but PFF charted him with 30 routes run and 55 snaps. Those are identical marks to Nico Collins and well ahead of Robert Woods. We know Brown topped 150 yards in back-to-back weeks before his injury and he should be a big piece of C.J. Stroud’s offense down the stretch.
Elijah Moore (WR, CLE) - 43% rostered
FAAB Bid: 25-35%
Aggressive Bid: 35-50%
Desperation Bid: 50-60%
Moore didn’t have an efficient day but still caught 4-of-11 targets for 83 yards as Amari Cooper exited due to a concussion. Moore and Joe Flacco have chemistry going back to the Jets and Cleveland needed any spark they could find.
Moore has notched 12 or more PPR points in three of his last four games and still saw nine targets in the one he missed the mark. The Browns will take on an above-average WR matchup versus Jacksonville next week and may have Moore as their No. 1 WR. Cedric Tillman would be a desperation flex as the likely No. 2 WR should Cooper be out.
Jonathan Mingo (WR, CAR) - 6% rostered
FAAB Bid: 5-10%
Aggressive Bid: 10-15%
Desperation Bid: 15-20%
Mingo led Carolina with six catches for 69 yards on 10 targets against Tampa Bay’s weakened secondary. This gives him 60 yards in consecutive games just as Adam Thielen has a combined four catches for 27 yards in the same window. Carolina’s coaching shift may see them emphasize their youth down the stretch. That said, games against NO, ATL, and GB in Weeks 14-16 are not WR-friendly.
#Panthers targets last 4 games:
Adam Thielen - 30
Jonathan Mingo - 29— Jared Smola (@SmolaDS) December 4, 2023
Greg Dortch (WR, ARI) - 15% rostered
FAAB Bid: 3-6%
Aggressive Bid: 6-8%
Desperation Bid: 8-12%
Dortch only had a 19-yard catch in Week 13, but (sadly) that was enough to lead Arizona’s WRs on a quiet day. The Cards rode their defense, Trey McBride, and James Conner to victory, but Dortch led all playmakers except McBride with 47 snaps and 25 routes (per PFF).
This was largely due to Marquise Brown’s heel injury, which ended Hollywood’s day in the third quarter. We’re also awaiting the return of Michael Wilson from a shoulder injury. Arizona is on bye until Week 15’s date with San Francisco (yikes), which should bring Brown and Wilson back. Dortch is still a decent PPR flier if you need it, but those with a bench dart to throw should also look at Wilson.
Alec Pierce (WR, IND) - 2% rostered
FAAB Bid: 2-4%
Aggressive Bid: 4-6%
Desperation Bid: 6-10%
Pierce caught three balls for 100 yards and his first touchdown of the season, finally showing the top gear we saw during his rookie season in 2022. He found paydirt on a 36-yard bomb and then nearly got a second score on a 55-yard strike in overtime.
On the one hand, Pierce looked great and it isn’t as though he’s lost a step since last season. And perhaps not having Jonathan Taylor available will force Indy to get creative with other weapons. But facing Tennessee’s secondary is a plus matchup and Indy isn’t slated to face another bottom-10 secondary the rest of the way. Tread carefully and know the floor remains low.
Xavier Gipson (WR, NYJ) - 0% rostered
FAAB Bid: 0-2%
Aggressive Bid: 2-4%
Desperation Bid: 4-6%
Gipson was Gang Green’s top receiver in Week 13, catching five balls for 77 yards against Atlanta. Tim Boyle gave way to Trevor Siemian in the middle of the game, which is a favorable swap for pass-catchers. Garrett Wilson remains king but Gipson is ahead of Allen Lazard and Jason Brownlee for No. 2 looks and this team will be trailing often.
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Tight Ends
Chigoziem Okonkwo (TE, TEN) - 31% rostered
FAAB Bid: 8-12%
Aggressive Bid: 12-16%
Desperation Bid: 16-20%
A week after Okonkwo set a new season-high mark with 45 yards, he eclipsed that with 62 yards while catching three of six targets. He also mixed in a two-yard jet sweep. His involvement and Tennessee’s willingness to push it with downfield targets is starting to ramp up.
Fellow TE Josh Whyle had seen more work in recent weeks but left the game with an injury in the fourth quarter. This would shift more work Okonkwo’s way ahead of plus matchups at Miami and against Houston in the next couple of weeks.
Tucker Kraft (TE, GB) - 6% rostered
FAAB Bid: 4-6%
Aggressive Bid: 6-7%
Desperation Bid: 7-10%
I know Ben Sims snagged the one-yard TD on Sunday night, but Kraft remained involved with three catches for 37 yards on six targets. The six looks were second-most on the team behind Christian Watson. I expect Kraft to help pick up the slack with Watson likely missing time due to another hamstring injury. The Pack take on the Giants next week before getting a vulnerable Tampa Bay secondary.
TE Red Zone Target Leaders over the last 4 weeks:
Jake Ferguson 8
David Njoku 6
George Kittle 4
Tucker Kraft 4 👀
Trey McBride 4
Cade Otton 4
Gerald Everett 3
Josh Whyle 3
Sam LaPorta 3— Scott Spratt (@Scott_Spratt) December 4, 2023
Brevin Jordan (TE, HOU) - 15% rostered
FAAB Bid: 2-4%
Aggressive Bid: 4-6%
Desperation Bid: 6-8%
With Dalton Schultz (hamstring) out, Jordan stepped right in with 3-64-0 receiving on a day where C.J. Stroud locked onto Nico Collins. Houston’s WR room is deep enough where the loss of Tank Dell shouldn’t cause a need for 2TE sets, so Jordan’s relevance for us is tied to Schultz’s health.
Jordan has rarely had a consistent chance to shine in the NFL but the 6’3” TE did have three touchdowns on just 20 catches as a rookie in 2021. There’s an outside chance his utilization ramps up with Dell out, especially if Noah Brown isn’t truly back to 100% following his knee injury.
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Defense/Special Teams
Houston Texans Defense (at NYJ) - 13% rostered
FAAB Bid: 4-6%
Aggressive Bid: 6-8%
Desperation Bid: 8-12%
Houston just put a lid on Russell Wilson’s cooking with three sacks and a trio of interceptions in the 22-17 victory. They’ve generated eight turnovers in their last four games, logging 10 sacks in the same window.
Houston should dominate a Jets team that can’t entice Zach Wilson back into the starting QB role. NYJ’s morale looks absolutely shattered. Houston’s next four weeks see them play NYJ (Wilson?), TEN x2 (Levis), and CLE (DTR? Flacco?), which puts them in set-and-forget territory.
New Orleans Saints Defense (vs. CAR) - 42% rostered
FAAB Bid: 3-5%
Aggressive Bid: 5-7%
Desperation Bid: 7-10%
The Saints are next up on the Bryce Young Experience, which makes them a fantasy target. Young has been sacked 15 times in the last three games while Carolina hasn’t topped 20 offensive points since Week 5. New Orleans sits as a five-point favorite at home with a low 38.5 over/under total, which I’m happy to lean into.
Green Bay Packers Defense (at NYG) - 18% rostered
FAAB Bid: 3-5%
Aggressive Bid: 5-7%
Desperation Bid: 7-10%
The Giants hit their bye on a high thanks to beating up on the Patriots, but Green Bay isn’t New England. And the Giants won despite allowing another six sacks, which ups the tally to 28 in their last four games. They protect the ball rather well due to Tommy Devito not taking several downfield shots, but the low point ceiling and high sack rate are enough here.
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