RADIO
Ruling Alperen Sengun’s poster over Zach Collins a charge is a tragedy. A dunk of the year candidate ruined by opinion. It’s a good call in the sense of Zach Collins went vertical, but outside of technicalities, there’s nothing about that play that signifies charge other than just that, a technicality. Technically, because Collins went vertical and ultimately sacrificed himself in the basketball sense, it forces Sengun to be the one creating contact. No one in their right mind believes that is the right call, despite it being the correct call.
Ten games Friday with just seven posted as of 1PM CST. Neither of the two highest-projected games have been posted thus far, so we’ll go down the line and write-up the next highest. Both Wizards-Pacers and Timberwolves-Jazz will be high-scoring and worth the wager, so while there will be plenty of action to find beforehand, both games having high-pace and a high-projection puts them at the top of the food chain and ripe for over bets.
MonkeyKnifeFight.com is always ahead of the curve with their canceling of contests amid postponements, so don't worry about wasting money on a player or game that might not play. As always, you can find me in the NBA Chat Room or @HalfCourtJester on Twitter with any questions, especially since lines and players are subject to change throughout the day.
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ATL @ BKN
Trae Young (ATL) MORE 31.5 Points – Kevin Durant (BKN) MORE 28.5 Points
No Dejounte Murray should thrust Trae Young back into his familial role of a do-everything-on-offense-plus-some point guard. Murray went down early last game and Young managed to finish with 19-points and a six-assists, not a great-line, allowing plenty of reason to why he should go over-the-top tonight against the Nets. Until the Nets find ways to clog up the holes in their defense, players like Trae Young are going to have no problems putting up massive stat lines against them, especially on nights where his usage and shot attempts will be through the roof.
Kevin Durant was on a streak of scoring 30+ points in four straight games, then he played the Raptors and scored 17-points on 10-shots, a rebound and three assists away from a triple-double. The streak ended, but he picked up where he left off right after with a 31-point game followed by 29-points in his most previous outing. When Durant is playing like this, you assume he’s going for 30-points and leave it at that. The only thing to overthink here is whether or not this rag-tag team of Hawks bench players can keep it close enough for Durant to need that type of production.
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DET @ MEM
Ja Morant (MEM) MORE 28.5 Points – Bojan Bogdanovic (DET) LESS 19.5 Points
In certain situations, you have to fade a superstar because the team they are facing simply won’t keep the game competitive. The Pistons come off as a bad team, and without Cade Cunningham, it’s much harder to keep games close, but they still have yet to deserve the title as a ‘pushover.’ As long as Morant is playing you have to go with the over because taking the under is assuming too many ifs and buts that are likely, but based on sheer optimism. Memphis needs Morant's production and realistically, the Pistons are weak at defending opposing guards and struggle to contain players that can finish around the rim against resistance.
Bojan Bogdanovic went from consistent to his worst performance as a Piston, getting ejected just four minutes into the third quarter. He’s taking enough shots to merit the type of production MKF is proposing, but assuming he can bounce-back with at least 20-points when he’s already not exactly the focal point of the offense can backfire. There are players playing better than him currently so don’t expect his teammates to feel obligated to get him going each night like they were earlier this season.
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PHX @ NOP
Devin Booker (PHX) LESS 28.5 Points – Zion Williamson (NOP) MORE 25.5 Points
Two key components to this bet. Devin Booker needs to be playing better before we assume he is hitting over 28-points on any given night, and Zion Williamson needs to give us a reason why he would score under 26-points when he is playing so well. The Suns have gotten trounced in back-to-back games and it’s unclear whether or not they plan to right the ship before tonight. When the Suns starters were pulled, the score had already been something like 94-49 and it reflected the game before against the Mavericks. Usually a team will bounce-back and assuming the Suns will, that doesn’t exactly mean Booker is going for 30-points. Until he specifically is playing at a level worth betting on, might as well bet the under, right?
Zion is doing everything for the Pelicans and playing Phoenix tonight could not be a more perfect situation to keep that momentum. The Suns defense is in a bad place right now and when they line up against Williamson, it’s going to be the third consecutive game of watching superstars walk all over what was touted as one of the league’s top defenses. Williamson has posted two consecutive games of near 32% usage and at least 25-points and should make it a third with ease.
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MIL @ DAL
Luka Doncic (DAL) MORE 30.5 Points – Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL) MORE 30.5 Points
If you came here looking for an answer, the answer is Yes. You knew the answer was Yes, but I get it. Sometimes your brain tells you something matters more than it should and you need that extra sense of validation, I get that. But the answer is still Yes. Both Luka Doncic and Giannis Antetokounmpo should hit their projected overs.
In both directions, neither player will face a ton of resistance, only because their incredible ability has made them seem that way. When you are averaging over 30-points-per-game in the NBA, there isn’t a single scheme or player that makes scoring look tough for you. Bad games are you just missing shots and players like Patrick Beverley will gloat about letting you shoot 30 times and only hitting four three-pointers. It comes with the territory, but tonight has the chance to repeat last night’s Nuggets-Trail Blazers game where both superstars show their colors.
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