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With 11 weeks in the books, your league's playoff picture should be taking shape. There's no prize for having playoff stashes on the bench if you don't do what it takes to enter the party. To steal from poker, we just need a chip and a chair once the playoffs begin! Let's do what it takes on the waiver wire to make that happen.
Joining our famous waiver wire pickups list, our weekly fantasy football waiver wire columns by position, and our free new Who Should I Pickup? Waiver Wire comparison tool, this column focuses on suggested waiver wire bidding percentages for fantasy football owners in leagues using a Free Agent Acquisition Budget (FAAB).
As a caveat, these prices do not by any means indicate how much these free-agent players will go for. Each league values players differently and will continue to do so. These values are here to provide a baseline or priority order to understand roughly how much you should be looking to spend on a particular player. Specific needs are always reasonable causes for a manual override. Here are my median FAAB bid ranges and adds going into Week 12.
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FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Quarterbacks
Kenny Pickett (QB, PIT) - FAAB Bid: 2-3%
11% rostered
Pickett completed 25-of-42 passes for 265 yards and a touchdown with zero interceptions. No turnovers in a second straight week are encouraging, but only two rushes for 14 yards after 7-37-0 and 8-51-1 ground performances in his previous two games burned a bit.
Cincy’s defense is no pushover and it doesn’t get much easier in Week 12 against Indianapolis, but then things open up against Atlanta, Baltimore, Carolina, Las Vegas, and Baltimore again through Week 17. Let’s hope for 5-8 rushes per week next to this improvement in the turnover department.
Kenny Pickett's passing chart is gradually getting better, via Next Gen Stats. #Steelers
10+ air yards: 7/14
15+ air yards: 5/10
20+ air yards: 4/7 pic.twitter.com/5oNJ2if5ho— Tommy Jaggi (@TommyJaggi) November 21, 2022
Ryan Tannehill (QB, TEN) - FAAB Bid: 1-2%
16% rostered
Tannehill and the Titans steamrolled the Packers on Thursday with the QB’s first 300-yard game of 2022. He connected on 22-of-27 attempts for 333 yards, two TDs, and one interception. The emergence of a certain stud rookie wide-out to be discussed in a bit elevates Tannehill’s prospects even though the team still flows through Derrick Henry.
The Titans will need to push towards offensive ceilings with Cincinnati and Philadelphia matchups on the horizon. They’ll also get a nice draw versus the Chargers to open our playoffs in Week 15.
Taylor Heinicke (QB, WAS) - FAAB Bid: 0-1%
14% rostered
Heinicke will remain the starter even with Carson Wentz returning, as Washington looks to make it three in a row via Atlanta at home. The sneakerhead signal-caller has ridden the rushing game and defense in the past two weeks but the Falcons’ secondary is beaten up.
Philly and Houston boast weak rush D’s propped against strong DB rooms but Atlanta is generous to all. Heinicke hasn’t run much but is still good for 4-5 rushes per game, on average. If desperate for a streamer and the other two names aren’t available then let’s pop some Heinekens and hold our breath.
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Running Backs
Latavius Murray (RB, DEN) - FAAB Bid: 30-50%
23% rostered
Murray proved more reliable than Melvin Gordon III on Sunday before the surprise news that MGIII was being waived by Denver. Gordon’s fifth fumble of 2022 cemented his fate on a day where Murray out-touched him 21-13. Murray had the touchdown and also caught all four of his targets.
The Broncos must feel confident in Murray now because Chase Edmonds has a high-ankle sprain that’ll keep him out for a few weeks. Marlon Mack is worth a dart throw if needed but Murray looks like their workhorse from here on out. I’m expecting 16-20 touches per week to command a good chunk of FAAB.
It's not sexy but Latavius Murray looks locked into a 3-down, 18-20+ touch role w/ Melvin Gordon gone & Chase Edmonds out indefinitely
6th easiest ROS schedule. DEN = 2nd highest RB tgt share (25.1%).
At 24% rostered, Murray is worth a top-claim & 40-50%+ FAAB for the RB-needy
— Wolf of Roto Street (@RotoStreetWolf) November 21, 2022
Samaje Perine (RB, CIN) - FAAB Bid: 8-12%
8% rostered
Perine pulled off a receiving hat trick with three aerial TDs on just four catches. The 52 receiving yards went with 30 rush yards for a dandy day as Joe Mixon was forced into the concussion protocol. Chris Evans was also out with a knee injury.
If Mixon cannot go in Week 12 against Tennessee then Perine would be around my RB20 on the week. It isn’t a dazzling matchup, but the volume as a versatile running back brings a healthy floor.
Cam Akers (RB, LAR) - FAAB Bid: 5-10%
Kyren Williams (RB, LAR) - FAAB Bid: 4-6%
27% & 28% rostered, respectively
The Rams gave Darrell Henderson Jr. the Week 11 start only for him to disappear early due to a knee injury. Akers wound up handling 14 carries and running eight routes on 25-of-64 snaps. Williams saw seven carries with a whopping 24 routes run on 35-of-64 snaps.
The Rams have dropped four straight now so playing from behind often will favor Williams’ skill set. There will be even more of that on tap with KC, SEA, and LV matchups on deck. Of course, Matthew Stafford is in concussion protocol and the entire offense could be a hot mess of destruction.
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Wide Receivers
Treylon Burks (WR, TEN) - FAAB Bid: 20-30%
20% rostered
Burks hit the ground running with six catches for 60 yards in the first half on Thursday. The second half was quiet until a 51-yard catch at the end tipped him over the century mark.
His 7-111-0 day went alongside Robert Woods’ nice 6-69-0 line even as Austin Hooper scooped two TDs for himself. In two games off of the IR, Burks has 14 targets and good momentum rolling in PPR formats. Derrick Henry should dominate the red-zone looks but Burks has good hands and big-play ability to be viable in all 12-teamers.
Treylon Burks has played six games so far as a rookie.
He has earned 35%-plus targets per route in three out of six. 👀👀👀
38%, 35%, 7%, 15%, 21%, 38%
— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland) November 18, 2022
Nico Collins (WR, HOU) - FAAB Bid: 5-10%
27% rostered
Houston remains a mess but Collins led the wide receivers in snaps (48), routes run (34), and targets (7). Unfortunately, Davis Mills was in trouble from whistle to whistle and Collins only had 48 yards on five catches. That’s nearly identical to last week’s 5-49 line, except he had a touchdown in that one.
It’s encouraging to see his usage remain high even with Brandin Cooks working back into the fold, but he’ll be reliant on TDs to pull himself well above the double-digit PPR line. Another bit of good news is all remaining games for Houston come against above-average secondary matchups for WRs.
Demarcus Robinson (WR, BAL) - FAAB Bid: 4-8%
5% rostered
Robinson paced all Ravens with nine catches for 128 yards as the clear No. 1 WR operating alongside Mark Andrews. No other Raven had over 10 receiving yards on the day, though his 30 routes run still trailed Devin Duvernay’s 35.
Don’t expect such a tilted split moving forward but Lamar Jackson showed trust and results followed. Baltimore loves the run but faces bottom-three secondaries in Weeks 14 (PIT), 16 (ATL), and 17 (PIT again), which could make DRob a sneaky playoff push.
Greg Dortch (WR, ARI) - FAAB Bid: 4-6%
2% rostered
A waiver-wire hero from the early season, Dortch once again stepped up for an injured Rondale Moore with nine catches for 103 yards. Arizona was behind for much of the game and went pass-happy as a result, leaving Dortch, DeAndre Hopkins, and A.J. Green all with at least nine targets apiece.
Moore’s groin injury suffered on Arizona’s first play could yield another opportunity in the slot for Dortch. We must monitor Moore’s health as well as Marquise Brown’s. Hollywood’s return would squeeze Dortch, but we’d hope Dortch would get the bulk of No. 3 duties over Green. Arizona’s Week 13 bye would give Moore ample time to recover, and holding him out through then yields a prime spot for Dortch against the Chargers in Week 12.
Corey Davis (WR, NYJ) - FAAB Bid: 1-3%
10% rostered
Those with remaining faith in Elijah Moore (25% rostered) can give him one last chance but I’m intrigued by Davis coming off injury if the Jets make a QB change. Zach Wilson is unable to lead the offense to points even as the defense keeps them in every game.
The Jets have played Denzel Mims over Moore thus far so it’s a leap to assume Moore would suddenly be there again should Joe Flacco start. But Davis could easily step into that No. 2 role across from Garrett Wilson and see 6-8 targets down the stretch.
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Tight Ends
Juwan Johnson (TE, NO) - FAAB Bid: 4-8%
30% rostered
Johnson went 3-47-1 on four targets as he collected his fifth touchdown in his last five games. He’s not a target hog compared to other TEs but he’s extremely involved relative to other Saints.
Week 11 TE air yardage share leaders
45% - Mark Andrews
32% - Pat Freiermuth
31% - Kyle Pitts
26% - Juwan Johnson
24% - Greg Dulcich, TJ Hockenson
22% - Cole Kmet, Dalton Schultz, Logan Thomas
21% - Dawson Knox— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 21, 2022
Though he’s accumulated only 22 targets in that five-game span, his 23 routes run in Week 11 led the team (per PFF). Mix in his large frame that offers an outlet in the red zone and we’ve got a recipe for success. Do note the Saints are one of the few teams still awaiting a bye, as they’ll face San Francisco and Tampa Bay before a Week 14 vacation.
Logan Thomas (TE, WAS) - FAAB Bid: 2-4%
6% rostered
Thomas operated as a clear starter alongside the starting WR trio on Sunday, playing on 46-of-68 snaps with 19 routes run. The team leader was Terry McLaurin with 49 snaps and 23 routes run, per PFF.
Thomas and F1 tied for the lead with six targets, with the TE snagging five of them for 65 yards. Washington faces the Falcons and Giants next, who are both middle of the pack against opposing TEs thus far.
Trey McBride (TE, ARI) - FAAB Bid: 0-2%
15% rostered
McBride caught all four targets for a lowly 14 yards on a sad day for Arizona. It was discouraging to see him lifted in favor of four-receiver sets, but running 27 routes on 40-of-56 snaps could be a stepping stone.
For now, McBride isn’t reliable enough to deploy in most 12- or 14-team formats. There’s room for growth but many of you can and should opt for RB/WR stashes instead of TE. If Arizona winds up featuring Hopkins, Brown, and Dortch/Moore with only a smattering of McBride then we’re simply waiting for 2023.
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Defense/Special Teams
Miami Dolphins Defense (vs. HOU) - FAAB Bid: 2-4%
23% rostered
Miami comes off their bye to take on a struggling Houston team that Washington just bullied with five sacks and two picks. The Dolphins have only generated eight turnovers all season, yet the Texans are next-level bad.
They’re yielding an average of four sacks and two turnovers in their last three games. Contain Dameon Pierce and make Davis Mills beat you. Miami’s stellar offense should put Houston in an early hole and force risky throws.
Minnesota Vikings Defense (vs. NE) - FAAB Bid: 1-3%
33% rostered
Minny just got torched by Tony Pollard and the Cowboys but gets a warmer matchup against Mac Jones and the Patriots on Thursday. Prior to Week 11, the Vikings had 15 sacks and 11 turnovers in their previous four games. The Patriots don’t turn the ball over often but have surrendered 16 sacks in their last three games. Tee off, Vikes.
Indianapolis Colts Defense (vs. PIT) - FAAB Bid: 1-3%
29% rostered
The Colts blew an upset bid over Philadelphia in Week 11 but still held their potent offense to 17 points. They haven’t yielded more than 20 points in their last five games and now get the young Steelers at home. Pittsburgh played better in Week 11 but has still yielded 14 sacks in their last three contests and boast high volatility.
Seattle Seahawks Defense (vs. LV) - FAAB Bid: 1-3%
12% rostered
Seattle’s defense had incredible momentum going into Week 10 at Tampa Bay but couldn’t account for the Bucs’ weapons. But the Seahawks had a Week 11 bye to reset and will look to recapture the form that forced 19 sacks and seven turnovers in their previous four games.
The Raiders are scrappy and the offense doesn’t turn the ball over often, but Seattle’s rookie playmakers are hunters. Tariq Woolen has five interceptions and Coby Bryant has four forced fumbles.
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