Are You For Real? Analyzing 4 Surprising Fantasy Baseball Breakouts From Matt Wallner, Isaac Collins, Kody Clemens, Victor Caratini

July 23, 2025

Tommy analyzes 4 hot fantasy baseball hitters to consider adding in Week 17, 2025. These deeper sleeper hitters could emerge as fantasy baseball waiver wire breakouts, or just be mirages.

Welcome back to another edition of "Are You For Real? - Hitter Version." We are barreling ahead full-speed towards August, and time is running out in terms of making key waiver acquisitions that can help your team for the second half of the season. Keep grinding, people!

As a reminder, we're looking for lesser-owned hitters who seem to be on a bit of a hot streak of late. We're using the past 30 days this time around because of the All-Star break. Then, we're digging deeper into some underlying numbers to see if the strong performance may be something that can continue moving forward, or perhaps there are red flags that suggest the recent spark should soon fade.

Let's take a look at four hitters who have been a bit of an offensive surprise over the past month... In a good way! They're likely available on your waiver wire, or you can probably still get them for a fair price in the deepest of leagues. All roster percentages are taken from Yahoo! and are accurate as of July 21st. Here we go!

Matt Wallner, OF, Minnesota Twins

7% Rostered

The Streak (Last 30 Days): .200 AVG, .712 OPS, 5 HR, 9 RBI, 8 R, 0 SB

Wallner is finally getting everyday at-bats in right field and occasionally designated hitter now that he's waist-deep in his fourth MLB season, and we may be looking at something exciting here. On the surface, the numbers aren't astounding, as he's hitting just .214 on the year with a nearly 30% strikeout rate. However, when you start comparing 2025 to past seasons, things become interesting.

The 29.9% strikeout rate is the lowest of Wallner's career by far, and he was up at 36.4% in 75 games last season. He also added 1.5% to his walk rate this year, and he has doubled his home run rate, hitting 11 on the year in just 59 games.

The most exciting piece, however, is that Wallner's BABIP is currently at just .257 for the year. That compares to a .389 BABIP last year, a .328 BABIP in 2023, and a .367 BABIP in a very short 2022 debut season. Sure, putting the ball in play more will naturally drop that number, but not like that!

Matt Wallner reached base 4 times tonight against the Dodgers. pic.twitter.com/X3ELxyc2Kx

— Eagle🦅Ball⚫️🟡⚪️ (@Eagle_Ball) July 22, 2025

The 27-year-old is hitting the ball harder than ever, currently boasting a 42.7% hard contact rate. Mix that with the fact that he's pulling the ball a crazy amount (54.8%) and hitting just 34.7% of his balls on the ground, and you have a very fun combination. Wallner will never be a .285 hitter, but he should be able to break above that .260 mark once this negative regression starts to even out.

Verdict:

Long story short, there are some intriguing improvements in Wallner's hitting profile. The best part is you can pick him up right now as a strict source of power with a batting average problem, and there's legitimate hope that he has a MUCH better batting average in the final two months of the season.

If you need some outfield help, especially if it's in the form of power, Wallner seems like a great chance to take.

Isaac Collins, OF, Milwaukee Brewers

4% Rostered

The Streak (Last 30 Days): .310 AVG, .821 OPS, 2 HR, 10 RBI, 15 R, 4 SB

After just 11 games and a cup of tea in Milwaukee for his MLB debut in 2024, Collins has spent the majority of 2025 thus far as the Brewers' primary left fielder. It seems to be going pretty well! The switch hitter is batting .269 on the year with six homers, 34 RBI, 27 runs, and 11 steals. As you can see above, he's turned it up over the past month.

While the surface stats indicate that Collins' bat has really heated up over the past month, the underlying numbers do provide some cause for concern. For example, the 28-year-old's hard contact percentage through 80 games played is a surprisingly low 29.2%. He has an impressive 28% line-drive rate at the moment, but you'd like to see more than nine barrels on the season.

Could Collins be finding some grass a little luckily at times to begin 2025?

The BABIP seems to think so. While the hitting profile and Collins' speed do reflect someone who might have a higher BABIP, sitting at .342 with a hard contact rate below 30% seems a little fishy. The stolen base profile tracks, so maybe we can count on 20 steals for him this year, but if his bat starts to fall off, those opportunities might follow suit.

Verdict: 

There are some things to like about Collins. But as a college bat who turned 27 before he even stepped foot on a major league field, it's tough to imagine he's going to add power to his game suddenly. That means .270 with 20 steals and 13 home runs might be the ceiling for Collins. I think there are higher-upside bats on waivers that I'd prefer to take a chance on in late July.

Kody Clemens, 1B/2B/3B/OF, Minnesota Twins

3% Rostered

The Streak (Last 30 Days): .255 AVG, .943 OPS, 5 HR, 13 RBI, 9 R, 0 SB

The other Twin on this list, Clemens, was actually on the Phillies to start the season, having come off the bench for them over the past two seasons, before being cut and traded to make room for outfielder Weston Wilson, who was activated off the injured list in late April. Since joining the Twins, the lefty has carved out a nice role as a first and second base utility man, doing some hitting along the way.

The former Longhorn and son of Roger is hitting just .221 on the season, but that average has climbed a bit of late, making his 12 homers through 60 games in Minnesota even more intriguing. An increased walk rate and the aforementioned positional versatility have kept Clemens relevant for the Twins in the meantime. However, that doesn't necessarily mean the 29-year-old is relevant for fantasy managers either.

Fortunately for Clemens, much like Wallner above, he's hitting the snot out of the ball. With a hard-contact rate at 40.5% and a soft-contact rate at just 12.4%, it's actually shocking his batting average isn't higher. Especially considering the fact that his strikeout rate is a palatable 24.5%. The 48.7% fly-ball rate does play a factor, but something isn't quite adding up here.

Kody Clemens RBI triple?

KODY CLEMENS RBI TRIPLE!!! AGAIN!!! https://t.co/pwFGcrGa0s pic.twitter.com/AKOzeOdmUH

— Minnesota Twins (@Twins) July 20, 2025

Verdict: 

This jump in hard contact is not minor. It's surprisingly high. And while it is just 60ish games, it's still something. You should continue to get a 25-homer pace from Clemens the rest of the way, but there actually might be a chance you get a .275 batting average as well, considering this batting profile. Throw in the positional flexibility, and this is someone I'd roster over Collins mentioned above.

Victor Caratini, C, Houston Astros

18% Rostered

The Streak (Last 14 Days): .355 AVG, 1.041 OPS, 3 HR, 9 RBI, 3 R, 2 SB

Is Victor Caratini having a career season at almost 32 years of age? It sure looks like it.

We can keep this one simple. It looks legit. The switch-hitting catcher who can also play first base has been on fire this past month, and there's reason to think it might continue. Caratini is hitting the ball almost 5% harder than he did in 2022 at 40.2%. That's 11% higher than last season. He's also hitting the ball in the air more than he ever has.

Victor Caratini crushes a GRAND SLAM 💪

(MLB x @DairyQueen) pic.twitter.com/5ykPIdULNA

— MLB (@MLB) July 2, 2025

That trend certainly accounts for the new 2o-homer pace we're seeing from Caratini, but we also should see some POSITIVE batting average regression soon. Caratini has dropped his strikeout rate by almost 3% this year, and despite his crazy-high hard contact numbers, his BABIP is just .288. This batting average could balloon up over .280 by season's end if the backstop can stay healthy.

Verdict: 

The Astros are going to find a place for Caratini's bat every night so long as he keeps this up. Hopefully the catcher will earn first base eligibility soon, allowing him to be used in a few more lineup positions for the rest of the year. Regardless, the hitting profile is extremely legit, and whatever swing change he made in the offseason is working.

If your catcher is struggling, or you want to pick up a possible corner infield replacement, now is the time to make the switch to Caratini.

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