2015 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Outfield (OF) - February Update

Last month, we brought you RotoBaller's preliminary outfield fantasy baseball rankings. The February update is here. We'll be releasing all the other positional rankings updates this week, with analysis from all the RotoBaller writers on their favorite risers and fallers at each MLB position.

Make sure to also check out our MLB Fantasy Baseball Rankings blog, along with all of RotoBaller's outfield rankings content. 

2015 Fantasy Baseball Outfield Rankings

Brad Johnson (Lead MLB Editor)

Want a truly deep sleeper? Braves outfielder Dian Toscano (unranked) is universally ignored by the fantasy crowd. According to Baseball America's Ben Badler, he possesses above average bat control. This is purely my speculation, but the overall profile might work at the top of the lineup. The Braves have a dearth of candidates after Nick Markakis and Freddie Freeman, so Toscano could bat second. His scouting report reads like vintage Placido Polanco. He doesn't feature much power or speed. If your draft is deep enough to consider Grady Sizemore, add Toscano to your board.

You may notice Billy Hamilton jumped 24 spots up my outfield board. I haven't changed my expectations, I simply made a valuation mistake. Despite the update, I feel compelled to mention I dislike one category producers.

Kyle Bishop (MLB Writer and Editor)

Real talk: I have no idea what to make of Michael Brantley. There's a lot to like in his overall profile - the athleticism that made him a top prospect, the plate discipline metrics, the linear progression in HR and SB totals - but is he really one of the best players in baseball? I don't think he is. No one else on staff ranked him outside of the top 10. While I'm not sure how much regression to expect, betting on anything close to a repeat of 2014 strikes me as a fool's errand.

And yes, I'm still drinking the Bryce Harper Kool Aid. #clownquestionbro

Editor’s Note: Looking for a fantasy baseball site for your year-round commissioner redraft, keeper or dynasty league? Check out Fleaflicker.com and host your league there for free.

Kyle Braver (MLB Writer)

As you can see, I'm not a big fan of Justin Upton's new home. PETCO park has never been kind to right-handed power hitters. By park factors, only Pittsburgh (85) and San Francisco (88) are tougher on right-handed sluggers than San Diego (91). It isn't just power that PETCO dampens, however, as San Diego (97) suppresses singles for right-handed hitters at a league-worst rate. This will be a tough adjustment for Upton who may have grown used to the relative kindness of Atlanta (101), the seventh friendliest stadium in the majors in this regard. As he's increasingly phased speed out of his game, Upton has relied more and more on batting average and power to generate value for fantasy owners. If PETCO can drag the career .274 hitter to a .250-.260 range, the overall package begins to fall apart.

Corey Dickerson, on the other hand, has done nothing but rise this winter. Back in January, Jeff Kahntroff shared that he felt that Dickerson was being underrated by Rotoballer analysts. I've come to agree with him wholeheartedly and my 10^th overall OF ranking reflects that. With youth, immense talent, a killer swing and Coors Field behind him, I think Rockies fans should be very excited about the player they have on their hands.

Just Berglund (MLB Writer)

I made plenty of changes up top from my original rankings. Most of my moves were based on risks, who poses them and who might be a safer pick when looking at a number one or two outfielder. Most notably, I moved Matt Holliday up from 17th to 12th, and dropped Carlos Gonzalez from 13th to 20th. Yes, Holliday had a down year last season and turned 35 last month, but I don't believe he will have another season trending down. His batting average did drop from .300 to .272, and I look at his BABIP dropping from .322 to .298, a virtually identical drop. The one issue I have with him is the power, as the career lows in ISO (.169), SLG (.441), and HR/FB (11.1%) aren't promising. However, his 14 homers and .234 ISO he put up in the second half are promising to show that he can still produce. His biggest drop has been in center and opposite field ISO, where his power to center field has actually increased since 2012. I am not ready to give up on Holiday, especially when a down year for him still makes him the 18th most productive fantasy outfielder.

CarGo, on the other hand, I have completely given up on. His ranking of 20th is not to say that I think Shin-Soo Choo, ranked 19th, is necessarily a better player. I just know that I will not be taking a chance on him this year, and I'm positive that somebody will draft CarGo inside the top 20. He only played in 70 games in 2014, and even when he did play, he saw a decrease in all his major numbers. For a guy that I would be banking on to hit 25+ homers, his rising GB% (47.1%), decreasing FB% (37.6), and a mediocre 15.5% HR/FB% are all worrying even if he was 100% healthy. Speaking of which, the last update I heard from him was that he will not be cleared to run in opposite directions until Spring Training starts, which is just another point working against him. Look, if Gonzalez is 100% healthy throughout the season, and that is a BIG if, he will drastically outperform my ranking of him. I am just not willing to put that much faith in a guy with such a scary injury history

Josh Leonard (MLB Writer)

Remember in Boogie Nights when Eddie Adams says to Jack Horner, “When I close my eyes, I see this name in bright blue neon lights with a purple outline. And this name is so bright and so sharp that the sign - it just blows up because the name is so powerful... It says, "Dirk Diggler."

When I close my eyes, the blue neon sign with purple outline says Starling Marte. He is a line drive hitter with an elite pop up rate and great speed. This happens to be a fantastically rare combination. Last season, fantasy baseball nerds predicted his .363 BABIP from 2013 was bound for regression, but Marte surprisingly improved. In 2014 he was the league leader with a .373 BABIP. It is a product of his skillset. Draft him, everywhere!

Jeff Kahntroff (MLB Writer)

Shin-Shoo Choo is being drafted way too highly for 5x5 formats, and I’m guessing it’s due both to name value and his real offensive value due to walks and HBPs exceeding his 5x5 value.  Choo hasn’t hit over .285 since 2010.  He has never hit more than 22 homers.  While he seemed to hover around 20 steals a year, he stole only 3 last year, albeit dealing with an ankle injury.  Nevertheless, he is nearing 33 and coming off ankle surgery.  And while the Rangers lineup could be good, it’s no sure thing as there are a lot of question marks in that lineup.  If I wanted a mix of speed and power, I would much rather take a shot on guys being drafted lower, such as Mookie Betts, Rusney Castillo, Gregory Polanco, Avisail Garcia, or Steven Souza.   Along these lines, I moved down a number of more boring players for those with upside around the 30s in my rankings.  In deeper leagues, where floor may be more important, please adjust accordingly.

Harris Yudin (MLB Writer and Editor)

Since our first rankings, Jason Heyward has jumped into my top 20. He will now be hitting in a better lineup in a more hitter-friendly park that he had been in Atlanta, and he could see his numbers improve across the board from 2014. I wouldn't be surprised to see Heyward revert back to his 20-20 days.

I don't see how anyone can rank Nelson Cruz outside the top 30. He led the majors in homers last year, and is actually moving to a park that was more home run-friendly than both Camden Yards in Baltimore and Globe Life Park in Arington in 2014. He may not produce in enough categories to be a top-10 OF choice, but outside the top 30? I don't get it.

Alex Roberts (RotoBaller Co-Founder)

In our initial outfield rankings, I encouraged you to stay away from Bryce Harper as the 8th OF off the board. He's dropped 1 whole spot in our OF rankings (mostly due to me dropping him to 27th overall), and his ADP as the 11th OF means the RotoBaller rankers are right in line with the expert community. Well, I guess they're all crazy! I kid, sort of. The fact is I would actually draft every OF I have listed above Harper in front of him.

Harper has huge potential, no doubt, and one day he might achieve that 285-30-100-100-20 upside. But in the second to fourth round I don't want potential and future upside, especially when it comes with a heaping side of "injury waiting to happen". I want "been there done that", or "most of the way there with big breakout potential". I do not want two recent seasons of injuries that resulted in 106 games missed over the past two seasons.  Nor do I want a power hitter who has never slugged above.486, never racked up more than 59 RBI or 22 HR, and never batted for an average above .274. There is too much security, track record and realistic upside with the to top 20 outfielders to warrant consideration of Harper that high up. Just say no to him in 2015. Another injury and down year, and it's possible his price will finally drop enough in 2016 where his value will be attractive.

That was two whole paragraphs spewing Harper hate. Now for the love. I have love for Marte, Kemp, Ellsbury, Dickerson, Cespedes, Calhoun, Bruce, Melky, Rios, Moss, Crawford and Jackson. A lot of old, haggard and ugly names on that list, for sure. Noone said to draft all of them! All of these players could return positive value based on where they are currently being drafted and I will be targeting a few of them on each of my teams this year.

2015 Fantasy Baseball Outfield Rankings