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Fantasy Football Advice: Buy and Sell Candidates for Week 1
The first game has yet to kickoff, but RotoBaller.com has some easy season suggestions for you to Buy and Sell.
The fantasy football season starts Thursday. Isn’t this just the best time of year? This moment of blissful thinking is accompanied by panic and desperation, for owners trying to dump a worrisome player they drafted or cash in on someone else’s highly touted pick before their success comes to fruition. By this time last year you could have obtained an Adrian Peterson for the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, or a Doug Martin for Mike Wallace. Once everyone sees the likelihood of success, all bets are off. The same player you could have stolen for 40 cents on the dollar will now cost you your first- or second-round draft pick. Take advantage of this golden opportunity by peeling back the polluted layers of someone’s perceived value to see their actual value. This is the most important tip for any fantasy team. When you know a player’s true value you will have the advantage on any transaction. Here are four players that have an actual value that is far more or less than their perceived value.
Buy Em
Stevan Ridley, New England Patriots: Last year’s go-to workhorse is back. The chip on his shoulder is not gone yet. He wants to show people that he is an All-Pro RB, not just a one-year fluke. After posting a juicy fantasy stat line of 1263 yards and 12 TDs, he wants more. There are a lot of question marks with New England this year, with the loss of Aaron Hernandez, Wes Welker and the injury to Rob Gronkowski. There are a few things we know for sure: last year they had a more balanced offensive attack, and the Patriots will ALWAYS move the ball. Ridley will be the beneficiary of both these facts. Look for even more carries to go his way, and with his sparkling yards per rush last year of 4.4 yards, look for a MONSTER season. He should be targeted via trade in every league. Try and trade high upside players for this guarantee at RB. Think David Wilson, Giovani Bernard, Eddie Lacy, etc, for trade chips.
Greg Olsen, Carolina Panthers: Olsen is a steal at a very shallow TE position. After posting career highs in yardage and receptions last year, Olsen is poised for another career year. Interesting note: last year Olsen operated out of the slot on two-thirds of his routes. He’s beastly and much faster than most inside linebackers, which helps him get open down the seam. Look for that to continue this year. With Steve Smith one year older, I like Olson to surpass him as the team’s #1 target in the air, which will translate into a top-three TE for the upcoming season. Now will be your last chance to get him cheap. In three weeks, fantasy owners will be asking a lot or stubbornly holding on to this mammoth pass catcher.
Sell Em
Darren McFadden, Oakland Raiders: McFadden was a boom-or-bust pick from the beginning. Coming into the league a year after Adrian Peterson’s breakout rookie season, McFadden was a trendy reach in most drafts. It's hard to believe that this will be his sixth season in the league. Expect more of the same. There are just too many factors working against this injury-prone RB. McFadden has yet to play a full NFL season. The closest he came was 13 games played, with only 12 games played last year. The Raiders will likely be playing catch up in most of their games, and that's a death sentence for running backs. Some people think that McFadden will be the beneficiary of a lot of dump-off passes, but with the emergence of Marcel Reese as a great pass catcher in the backfield, look for McFadden’s receptions to falter. I would look to trade him for another high-upside RB, but one with not so many things working against him.
Alfred Morris, Washington Redskins: Morris is a trendy late-first-round pick this year. If you drafted him I would shop him around immediately. Morris owes 75% of last-year's success to RG3. Teams just couldn't tame the triple-option beast that the Redskins ran, creating running lanes the size of freight trains for Morris. With RG3's still healing ACL, look for a more traditional offensive system, thus limiting the sophomore passer’s rush attempts. With the elimination of that threat, teams will have a much easier time defending Morris. Also Morriss doesn’t catch the ball out of the backfield well, and teams know that. If Morris doesn’t get his on the ground he won’t help you much in the air. Expect a disappointing sophomore season for Morris.
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