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Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2023 NBA Finals? Can the Heat beat Jokic and the Nuggets X-factors? Read the latest NBA basketball playoff outlook for the Denver Nuggets ahead of their NBA Finals series against the Miami Heat.
The Denver Nuggets machine dynamic led by Nikola Jokic faces Jimmy Butler’s rough-and-tumble Heat in a Finals matchup that’s never been witnessed. The Nuggets are looking to secure their first-ever championship while the Heat look to overcome the odds once again and become the first #8 seed to win an NBA Finals.
Let’s address some obvious points. Any team that comes out shooting 60% from the field is going to win, that’s the simple truth of the NBA. Current players are so talented that when enough of them are hitting at a high enough percentage, your only option becomes fighting fire with fire. If you miss, you lose.
If Miami bursts out of the gate spreading the court with somehow Caleb Martin still leading the charge, all the supporting cast needs to do is follow suit. Max Strus, Duncan Robinson, and Gabe Vincent can all hit their shots and Jimmy Butler will get to the rim against Denver’s frontcourt. All Bam Adebayo needs to do is make life difficult for Nikola Jokic on both ends and the Heat have a great chance of winning this series. This is why that won’t happen.
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Can Miami Slow Down Jokic?
Not only is that last-mentioned adjustment against Jokic impossible, but we have to remember that in both regular season games between these teams, Jimmy Butler had to guard Aaron Gordon and couldn’t offer a ton of help. Gordon’s size and off-ball movement were too much for the undersized Heat roster and Miami has minimal if any frontcourt options outside of 6’5 Haywood Highsmith to counter. (If that even counts.)
When the Heat run small, it’ll open the door for the Nuggets to attack from a wide array of options and angles. Denver can run a Bruce Brown pick-and-roll to check if his floater is hitting. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope knows his role as a wing shooter better than anyone and has improved his shooting so 12 points from him feels like 25.
Michael Porter Jr. will have a size advantage the entire series and based on the way he plays, those inches matter when he’s getting off enough shots to fix any potential broken rhythm. Then you just have to hope Jamal Murray and Jokic forget how to play basketball and the Heat have a real chance.
When dealing with a player like Jokic, you can’t just look at the individual. He has built this team from the ground up through his inclusive playstyle and by never wavering from what makes him so valuable. He will never be the best shooter or the most athletic, but when you execute the little things and minimize mistakes in your own game like Jokic has perfected, it allows your teammates to focus on what makes them valuable.
Aaron Gordon and Michael Porter Jr.
These are the only two X-factors that matter. If Aaron Gordon and Michael Porter Jr. can put up 20 points each in four games this series, it won’t matter what Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic produce. Miami will be so busy trying to deal with the onslaught coming from the two hyperactive hybrid forwards that the rest of the team will see a benefit by default. The more Gordon can disrupt Miami's foundation through physicality the less Butler's impact will be noticed overall, and the more shots Porter Jr. can hit the more the Heat will be forced to help away from their man, something they cannot afford to do against the Nuggets.
We already know the matchup between Gordon and Jimmy Butler will be highlighted, but what comes from Butler having his hands full on defense and not being able to help? Naturally, that forces Caleb Martin back into his heavy-duty role on both ends of the court, but how much of the effort exercised on defense is going to pull from what he has to do on offense?
Unless Martin shoots the leather off the ball in another series, which is unlikely, we have to remember that the Nuggets are well-equipped with their own set of gritty defenders in both the starting lineup and on the bench. This means life won’t be easy for the team that has no choice but to try and make life not-so-easy for their opponent. Not only will hustle plays count for double, but offensive rebounds will be a key factor this series and the Nuggets have the size advantage across the board.
Michael Porter Jr. will have the most opportunities assuming Miami goes with the ‘hopefully he’ll just miss’ method since they have no one to guard him, and the more Aaron Gordon can do to keep Butler occupied is only going to help players like Porter Jr. that will absolutely need to shake some rust off entering their first-ever Finals.
If all goes to plan and Denver doesn’t drop the ball shooting 35% throughout, Bruce Brown, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and Jeff Green won’t even need to hit shots consistently since their defense offers enough resistance to keep Denver in striking distance so game-enders Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic can capitalize.
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