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Who's going to win the 2023 NFL Coach of the Year? Tony Camino looks at the five candidates who are the most likely to capture the 2023 COTY award.
With 18 regular-season weeks now in the books, all Coach of the Year cases have been made for the 2023 NFL campaign.
The voting for each award is done before the playoffs start with the winners being announced the Thursday before the Super Bowl.
We’ll rank this year's top-five Coach of the Year candidates here and discuss why each player deserves consideration for the NFL's highest coaching award. Each player will be listed with their current sportsbook odds to win COTY. Odds below current as of 01/31/24.
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#1. Kevin Stefanski - Cleveland Browns (Current COTY Odds: -950)
2020 NFL Coach of the Year Kevin Stefanski is the heavy favorite to earn his second award for his work in the 2023 season. The Browns finished 11-6, going 11-5 in games where the starters played. Despite having 26 percent of their salary cap on injured reserve, the team continued to find ways to win week in and week out, salvaging a season that few teams could overcome.
It all started with All-Pro right tackle Jack Conklin in Week 1, followed by superstar running back Nick Chubb in Week 2. Deshaun Watson missed time early, only to come back and fracture his throwing shoulder, sidelining him for the entire season. Other notable players like Dawand Jones, Grant Delpit, Jedrick Wills, Maurice Hurst, Ogbo Okoronkwo, and Rodney McLeod all suffered season-ending injuries, putting a significant strain on their depth.
Despite facing adversity, the Browns managed to win a game with four different starting quarterbacks this season. They could have easily accepted their fate of a lost season, as other injured teams did. However, they rallied together behind one of the NFL's best defenses, embracing the challenge of finding a way to win each week to contend for the AFC North title until the very end. Although they didn't achieve the ending they envisioned, their success given the circumstances was remarkable in 2023.
#2. DeMeco Ryans - Houston Texans (Current COTY Odds: +750)
Houston Texans coach DeMeco Ryans stepped into what many considered a challenging situation after the team's 3-13-1 finish last year, leading to their second overall selection in the 2023 NFL Draft. Despite having favorable draft capital, the roster lacked foundational pieces for a rebuild, with Derek Stingley Jr. standing out as a notable exception. While success was anticipated to be a gradual process in Houston, the combination of coaching changes and strategic roster decisions expedited the turnaround.
In 2022, Houston ranked 31st overall in DVOA, with the team placing 31st in offense and 28th in defense. Davis Mills performed okay given the circumstances, but there were few silver linings to their previous season. Fast forward to 2023, and the Texans achieved a significant improvement, finishing 12th in DVOA -- 14th on offense and 16th on defense. In just one offseason, they transformed from a team with little hope for the future to one brimming with optimism, with much credit going to Ryans for orchestrating this remarkable change.
The acquisition of C.J. Stroud and Will Anderson Jr. in the same draft class is a substantial boost to the team's rebuilding efforts, along with the success of third-round pick Tank Dell. Nico Collins, who showed promise in 2022, experienced a complete breakout in 2023 alongside Stroud. The addition of Bobby Slowik, an astute offensive play-calling hire, further solidified the team's promising future in Houston.
#3. Shane Steichen - Indianapolis Colts (Current COTY Odds: +1200)
Shane Steichen, a key contributor to the offensive success of the 2023 NFC champion Philadelphia Eagles, was rewarded with a head coaching position in Indianapolis. There, he had the opportunity to select his quarterback of the future in the first round. Despite ongoing contract negotiations with star running back Jonathan Taylor early in the season, rookie Anthony Richardson showcased his electrifying skills in the four games he played before suffering a season-ending shoulder injury.
Initially, the expectations for the Colts this season were not exceptionally high, especially with Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars appearing poised to dominate the division. When Richardson went down, many would have written off the season and started looking ahead to the next year. However, Steichen crafted a successful formula with backup Gardner Minshew that nearly propelled the Colts into the playoffs. They finished the season with a 9-8 record and were just a Week 18 home win against Houston away from clinching the AFC South.
A comparison between this season's Eagles and the Colts shows how important Steichen is for a franchise. The Colts, finishing right behind them in offensive DVOA, achieved success without nearly the same level of talent. Steichen's offensive scheme and play-calling had a crucial role in the Colts' success this year. The future looks promising with Steichen and Richardson, provided Richardson can avoid hits and stay healthy.
#4. Dan Campbell - Detroit Lions (Current COTY Odds: +1900)
While the Detroit Lions' season concluded heartbreakingly, Dan Campbell has solidified his position as one of the premier CEO-style head coaches in the NFL, playing a significant role in the team's transformation from a laughingstock to a contender. Despite some reservations about his aggressive, analytically-based decision-making, this approach heavily contributed to the team's success and became a defining part of their identity.
Finishing the season seventh in overall DVOA with a fifth-ranking offense and a 13th-ranking defense, the Lions demonstrated their prowess under Campbell's leadership. He has proven to be a formidable leader, with all players fully invested in the team's vision. Campbell's postgame speech after the NFC title game showcased his commitment to brutal realism, a quality that resonates with his players. While much of the scheme's success is credited to Aaron Glenn and Ben Johnson, Campbell's talent lies in identifying and bringing in coaches who can execute their vision effectively.
Quantifying factors like cultural impact and leadership ability can be challenging, but Campbell appears to excel in both categories. The true test for him will be sustaining success when his coordinators move on to larger roles. However, for now, he stands as one of the most beloved and respected coaches in football.
#5. John Harbaugh - Baltimore Ravens (Current COTY Odds: +2200)
2019 Coach of the Year John Harbaugh guided the Ravens to an NFL-best 13-4 record, with an impressive 13-3 mark in games where the starters played. Although the conclusion of their season fell short of the expectations of Ravens fans, the journey to the AFC title game highlighted why Harbaugh is regarded as one of the better coaches in the NFL. The addition of Todd Monken, in his first year as the Ravens offensive coordinator, played a pivotal role in transforming the team's passing attack and contributing to Lamar Jackson's continued improvement.
On the defensive front, the hiring of Mike Macdonald proved to be excellent, with the Ravens finishing the 2023 season as the top-ranked defense in DVOA. Macdonald's impact was evident as the Ravens maintained a top-10 defensive DVOA in both years he served as defensive coordinator, succeeding well-respected coach Wink Martindale.
Much like Dan Campbell, Harbaugh is a CEO-style coach, emphasizing leadership and inspiration. His ability to assemble the right coaching staff to maximize the talent on the roster has been a key factor in the team's success. Throughout his tenure in Baltimore, Harbaugh has made strategic hires that directly contributed to the team's achievements. As the offseason approaches, Harbaugh faces the challenge of making another impactful hire, especially with Macdonald heading to Seattle to take over for the Seahawks.
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