RADIO
Here we go again folks. Week 7 is here and for the sake of consistency I'll stick with the tournaments that start at 1 PM Eastern Time, so don't be shocked to not see names from Buffalo-Jacksonville listed.
Week 7 has a decent amount of mid-level plays that are all in contention for being rather highly owned, but I'll list the ones that jump out to me for the heck of it. At quarterback, you've got Philip Rivers and Carson Palmer still in the mid-6K range when they should deliver top numbers (and Cam Newton is a good play in tourneys when most might flock to those two). At running back, Todd Gurley might be the highest owned player of the week, as $5,000 is dirt cheap for a bellcow who has racked up 300 yards in his first two games against good defenses. Lamar Miller might also get a lot of love at $4,600 in a rejuvenated Dolphins' offense. Martavis Bryant and Donte Moncrief might very well be the highest owned in that ~$5,000 range. Antonio Gates, Gary Barnidge, and a recently cleared Jordan Reed should draw a lot of attention due to Gronkowski's outrageously high price ($8,100), which should frame those three as being fantastic "savings" options that don't require further scraping down to lower prices.
Let's look at some names that should be overshadowed by those names and their price points.
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Ryan Fitzpatrick (QB, NYJ): $5,200 - @NE
Fitzpatrick rewarded owners who didn't forget about him after the Jets had their bye week with a strong effort against the Redskins. The most important takeaway from this game for me was seeing that even when Fitzpatrick was missing his throws, Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker are really just so good that they can bail him out and make great plays. Chris Ivory was able to have an amazing game and it still didn't put a cap on what Fitzpatrick could deliver for owners. A lot of people respect what the Jets are doing this year, but the Patriots are being their usual dominant selves and that might be enough to dissuade most from taking Fitzpatrick. While the Jets could very well look to run it down the Patriots' throats (NE has the 26th best run defense according to ProFootballFocus, and 29th best according to FootballOutsiders), it should set up some favorable play action situations for Fitzpatrick, as well as the fact that the bulk of the Patriots' pass defense rating comes from a strong showing against tight ends and running backs. FootballOutsiders has the Patriots as 22nd best against WR1s and 17th best against WR2, so there's a bit more to it with some digging. Fitz should have a very low ownership tag, and if he returns 300 yards and 2-3 touchdowns you could do very well considering the money saved.
Teddy Bridgewater (QB, MIN): $5,100 - @DET
The Detroit Lions are a secondary that should be targeted week in week out. Their PFF pass coverage ranking is 25th, and FO has them as 29th in pass defense. Jay Cutler just carved them up last week. The biggest piece of this is that Bridgewater himself seems to have a fairly low ceiling this year. His highest DraftKings point total this year was 18.22. That wouldn't be tragic considering it'd still be over 3x value for his price, but we're hoping for more. While Adrian Peterson has yet to really break out, Stefon Diggs has come on and Charles Johnson is healthy again (the jury is out on whether that last bit is good news for Teddy or not, we'll see how Charles does this week) so Bridgewater should have a full arsenal of weapons out there. The other kicker to this is that while the Vikings defense is looking quite strong, at least the Lions showed some life last week. Maybe Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson just needed a successful game under their belts to generate some momentum that can be carried forward. If the Lions can put up even a halfway decent fight, the Vikings will need Bridgewater to score. The reason he's here is that he might very well be <1% owned, and he has a decent amount of stars aligning in his favor for a good game. The issue here is the volume that Bridgewater really throws, and I'd rather have Fitzpatrick, Tannehill or Carr, but Teddy is the one that warrants a breakdown.
Other deep plays that might have higher ownership: Ryan Tannehill, $5,700 vs. HOU, Derek Carr, $5,300 @SD.
Week 7 Running Back Sleepers
Matt Jones (RB, WAS): $3,200 – vs. TB
It'd be nice if one could bank on Matt Jones falling right back into getting the goal line carries, but one cannot be sure. For $3,200 I'm willing to risk it against a Tampa Bay squad that is 28th against the rush according to PFF. Matt Jones practiced in full this week from his sprained toe, and it's actually PPR stud Chris Thompson who appears to be battling a back injury this week. Alfred Morris failed to show any signs of life last week against the Jets with Matt Jones out. Either Alfred Morris or Matt Jones should do well this week, and they have very similar pricing so I'm going to side with the guy who didn't stink last week and who also has a history of getting the goal line looks. Who knows, if Thompson is limited by his injury then perhaps Jones gets a few more catches as well. That'd just be sprinkles on the cupcakes, but it's worth noting. Update: Chris Thompson is officially listed as doubtful. It looks like Matt Jones should indeed get some looks in the passing game. On DraftKings that news plays very well for Jones.
Darren McFadden (RB, DAL): $3,100 – @NYG.
Oh my gosh everyone freak out and look at Christine Michael! While it's a viable strategy to go with Michael, it might mean that Darren McFadden is barely owned anywhere. The bye week and the lack of a touchdown in Week 5 may have left McFadden off of owner's radars in the first place. The fact of the matter is that McFadden is taking 100% of the work that Lance Dunbar had, and he saw 10 targets in Week 5. The Cowboys have made a quarterback change and Matt Cassel might very well want to turn to his safety blanket out of the backfield in McFadden. On DraftKings you've got to love those guys who can rack up targets. Even if McFadden caught nine balls for three yards, he makes 3x value. He has a lot of room to impress and provide owners who pick him this week with value. There's no reason he can't take one of those passes into the end zone, and a 8-60-1 line for 20 points is not a stretch here.
Other deep plays that might have higher ownership: Theo Riddick, $3,400 vs. MIN, Jonathan Stewart, $4,000 vs. PHI, Danny Woodhead, $4,600 vs. OAK.
Week 7 Wide Receiver Sleepers
Mike Wallace (WR, MIN): $4,200 - @DET
So we spoke about Bridgewater and what's on his plate, which really covers a lot of the passing game for Minnesota in general. There's been a lot of hubbub surrounding Stefon Diggs, and as a result Mike Wallace really isn't getting talked about at all. Wallace had a lousy Week 6, but he still had nine targets. If Bridgewater and Wallace can get on the same page against a terrible Lions' secondary that has been described as being readily beaten by "funnel routes", well Wallace could go off. He's still an absolute burner who can turn a modest gain into a long touchdown if there's a missed tackle or blown assignment. This is the perfect tournament play spot for Wallace given the Diggs' hype, Wallace's own skill set, and the opposing defense.
Michael Floyd (WR, ARI): $3,200 – vs. BAL
This could be a good play, or this could be a great play. It's no secret that the Baltimore Ravens secondary has been beaten like a drum lately, with quarterbacks like Josh McCown and Colin Kaepernick turning in great numbers against them in past weeks. So, what happens when that defense has to go on the road against Carson Palmer and his plethora of passing options? Right. Larry Fitzgerald will definitely have a high ownership mark, and after last week John Brown might actually be the highest owned out of the Cardinals given his $5,500 price tag. Michael Floyd is buried on DraftKings at $3,200, and last week's 16 point effort would be exactly 5x value based on that price. All three of Arizona's receivers has a chance at an insane game, and in tournament settings it's a good idea to throw the cheapest outside option on a team. In Week 6 John Brown had 14 targets, Fitzgerald had 10, and Floyd had eight. They all put up great lines. I'll take the guy near the minimum please. The X factor as of today is that Brown's hamstring tightened up on him on Thursday and left him limited in practice. He played through the same ailment last week when he went bonkers, so it's not a huge concern, but if there's any real setback then it only increases Michael Floyd's already good chances at a great game. Update: Brown did not practice on Friday. Bump Floyd up a bit more.
Other deep plays that might have higher ownership: Michael Crabtree, $4,300 @SD, Willie Snead, $4,300 @IND, Eric Decker, $5,300 @NE.
Week 7 Tight End Sleepers
Ladarius Green (TE, SD): $2,900 - vs. OAK
Antonio Gates is back and still pretty cheap at $5,000, so the whole "Oakland sucks against tight ends" thing should direct a lot of attention to Gates. In cash games (and even in some tournaments), firing up Gates is a great idea. If you want to zig where others are zagging though, look at Ladarius Green. Last week against Green Bay, Gates logged 71 plays (56 pass plays versus 15 run blocking plays), while Green was in on 66 (48 pass plays versus 17 run blocking plays, including one pass blocking assignment). Green caught a touchdown and has shown that he isn't going to just go away just because Antonio Gates is back. For under $3,000 Green is a solid lottery ticket, especially considering that San Diego's defense really hasn't been anything special and this game could become a shootout, as well as Gates' own little injury bug that might limit him. Update: So Gates now reportedly has an MCL sprain, and very well might miss Sunday's game. It's a late game so look into alternatives for late swaps if you need to from the later games, but I like Green regardless. If Gates is out, Green's ownership is going to spike though.
Eric Ebron (TE, DET): $3,000 - vs. MIN
Eric Ebron is healthy again, and while Tim Wright might see a few snaps, the Lions should stick with their premier big target in the passing game out of the tight end spot. Perhaps they even work in a few two tight end sets with Ebron set out wide as they like to use him. The Vikings' defense was touched on before as being a solid unit, but FootballOutsiders has them as 24th best against the tight end. It appears this may be their weak point, and it wouldn't be a huge stretch that if any of us can scour analysis and come across that, that the Lions' coaches have a good chance of identifying the same thing. He is a towering red zone target, and if the Vikings focus in on taking away Calvin Johnson, Ebron becomes the other sizable option for Stafford to lob it up to.
Other deep plays that might have higher ownership: Coby Fleener, $3,000 vs. NO, Jordan Cameron, $3,300 vs. HOU, Delanie Walker, $3,900 vs. ATL.
Week 7 Defense Sleepers
Pittsburgh Steelers, D/ST: $2,600 – @KC
The Steelers are an interesting specimen, but they have had an improved pass rush lately and have been decent against the run. The pass coverage is where they falter, but the Chiefs and Alex Smith are one of the last teams to be able to truly exploit that. The Steelers also have a really awesome guy returning for them named Antonio Brown. Look for the Steelers to be able to tee off against a Chiefs team that has really lost its way since Jamaal Charles went down.
Washington Redskins, D/ST: $2,500 - vs. TB
The Redskins defense just got shown up by the Jets on the road, but they get to come home now and face a turnover prone Jameis Winston. The Redskins' strength on defense has been their pass rush, which lines up well to try to generate turnovers out of Jameis Winston and a weakened offensive line for Tampa Bay. The hope here would be that the Redskins can limit the likely preliminary wave of rushing from Tampa (as Tampa hopes to limit what Jameis has to do) while scoring enough themselves to put the Bucs in a spot where Jameis needs to be throwing.
St. Louis Rams, D/ST: $2,400 - vs. CLE
The Cleveland Browns are coming off of a tough loss, and now they travel to St. Louis against a rested and prepared Rams team that can really put a ton of pressure on the quarterback. Not sure why they are so cheap this week, and as such the ownership level might be pretty darn high, but with a plus return game and a solid defensive matchup it's hard not to briefly touch on them.
