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Fantasy football starts/sits and lineups advice for the Jacksonville Jaguars (0-3) vs Cincinnati Bengals (2-1) Thursday Night game in Week 4. Ellis analyzes the TNF matchups with a detailed breakdown.
I’ve had this matchup circled on my calendar since the schedule was released. To kick off Week 4, we have the previous two first overall picks going head to head. In a matchup where both teams have porous defenses and all the talent in the world under center, we could be in for a treat this Thursday.
Before we move on to Week 4, we need to talk about how phenomenal the 2021 NFL season has been. It’s been a season of surprises with “underwhelming” players like Derek Carr passing for 400 yards per game and Kirk Cousins throwing eight touchdowns with no interceptions. Meanwhile, we are currently living in a world where the Kansas City Chiefs (1-2), the Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2) and the Seattle Seahawks (1-2) are all last in their divisions. What is happening?
Personally my favorite surprise of the season is the Cincinnati Bengals (2-1), sitting in first in the AFC North. The Bengals seem to have turned a corner this season and get to showcase their ability in primetime against NFL’s darling, Trevor Lawrence. So without further ado, let’s dive into the RotoBaller Thursday Night Preview.
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Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cincinnati Bengals
8:20 pm EST
Notable Injuries:
- Tee Higgins (WR, CIN) - Shoulder - OUT
- Chidobe Awuzie (CB, CIN) - Groin - Questionable
- Jessie Bates III (S, CIN) - Neck - OUT
Must-Starts
Ja’Marr Chase (WR, CIN): Chase is the first player in the SuperBowl Era with three 30+ yard touchdowns in their first three games, the youngest player to have three-plus touchdowns in their first three games (the previous being Randy Moss), and currently second in the league in touchdown receptions. No matter where you decide to start his narrative, there’s only one conclusion: Ja’Marr Chase is everything NFL fans hoped for. Through the first three weeks, he is fifth in fantasy points at the position, making him a “Must Start” for Week 4. However, it’d be irrational if I didn’t mention that these 30+ yard touchdowns will have to stop at some point. Plus, Chase is averaging just over five targets and 3.5 receptions per game. It pains me to say, but a bad fantasy performance is knocking on the door for Chase. Thankfully, there are no signs for it to be this week as the Jaguars have allowed the fifth-most yards to the receiver position. Plus, with Tee Higgins out for the second straight week, Chase should be Burrow’s go-to guy this Thursday. Start Ja’Marr Chase with confidence this week, however, keep in mind that he should be viewed more as an upside WR2 than a WR1 at this point.
Joe Mixon (RB, CIN): Mixon is off to a very polarizing start this year. It would seem that both truthers and doubters are simultaneously victory lapping his 2021 performance. Let’s start with the positives. Mixon has been very productive on the ground, being second in the league in both rushing yards and rushing attempts (both behind Derrick Henry). This usage on a team that is very offence-heavy, the outlier might be Mixon’s singular touchdown on the season. However, this is where the doubters come to light as this is the third year Mixon has received the workload and been relatively underwhelming with it. In my opinion, both sides are right as he is currently the RB13 on the season. Regardless of where you stand, this is a great matchup for Mixon. The Jags are currently, allowing the fifth-most fantasy points and third-most touchdowns to the running back position. In 2020 Mixon lit up the Jags for 180 total yards and three touchdowns. This year the Bengals are heavy favourites making Mixon a smash play. Plus, I’m calling Mixon to open up the Pie Shop* for the second time this season.
*Pie Shop: An Australian term (often used in Rugby League) to describe who will score a Try (or in this case touchdown) this week.
Solid Options
Tyler Boyd (WR, CIN): One of the most underrated slot receivers in the league makes the “solid option” section once again. Last week, without Higgins, Boyd led the team in targets and tied with Chase for the most receptions (4). Boyd also managed to find his first touchdown of the season in last week’s win over the Steelers. Without Higgins, Chase and Boyd made up 60% of Joe Burrow’s targets in Week 3. This week against the Jaguars, Burrow should have no issues passing the ball. Boyd should see enough targets and yards to be a high-end WR3 with WR2 upside in Week 4.
James Robinson (RB, JAX): Robinson has snuck his way into the “solid options” section. Quietly being the RB15 on the season, Robinson could have a nice fantasy week. With double-digit carries over the last two weeks and two games, this season with six targets, Robinson is once again getting the volume needed to be fantasy relevant. The Bengals have been strong against the run, averaging only 58 rushing yards against and allowing only one rushing touchdown this season. Robinson should have the usage to finish as a top-24 back this week, however, his upside is capped unless he manages to find the endzone for the second straight week.
Evan McPherson (K, CIN): In light of Justin Tucker’s heroics, it only seems right to include a kicker in this segment. Evan McPherson was the 149th pick overall (5th round) and the only kicker drafted in the 2021 NFL draft. The former Florida Gator has so far returned on the Bengals draft investment as he is one of eight kickers without a miss through three weeks. These kicks include two 50+ yarders and one game-winning kick in overtime. He is currently the K13 in fantasy points and has a great matchup to be a solid stream this week.
Cincinnati Bengals Defense: The art of streaming defences is all about two things: strength of the defence, and matchup. Considering Bleacher Report ranked the Bengals as the 26th defence overall going into the season, you would think my recommendation relies heavily on the matchup. However, the Bengals' defense has been surprisingly solid this season. Currently, the Bengals are tied with the fourth-most sacks per game. They have also held opposing offenses to the sixth-fewest points and eighth fewest yards per game this season. Not only are the Bengals showing progress on the defensive side of the ball, but the matchup this week is great. The Jaguars are leading the league in turnovers, with seven interceptions and two fumbles through the first three weeks. Jacksonville is also averaging the fifth-fewest points per game this season with 17.7. The Bengals defense is set up to be a great defensive stream or deep DFS play this week in fantasy.
Flex Considerations
Last week I added the section “Flex Considerations” for players who I couldn't confidently call “Solid Options”. However, these players could very well be an upside flex play for some teams. As a result, I have decided to continue with this section this week.
Joe Burrow (QB, CIN): Despite having top fantasy talents around him, Burrow has been nothing special for fantasy this season. Currently, Burrow is the QB22 on the season and has yet to crack 20 fantasy points. Furthermore, he is 25th in passing yards and third in interceptions. So why is he a good Superflex option? Two words: the matchup. The Jaguars are allowing over 21 fantasy points to the position and the fifth most passing yards. Although I don’t think you can start Burrow as a top-12 option, he has a steady floor with high-upside in two QB leagues.
Marvin Jones Jr. (WR, JAX): To the surprise of many fantasy analysts, Jones Jr. is the WR19 this season. Leading the team targets, receptions, and touchdowns, the veteran receiver has earned the trust of rookie Trevor Lawrence. In a game where Jacksonville projects to be trailing, the passing volume should be there for Jones Jr. to have another solid fantasy day against the mediocre Bengals secondary. I would start him as a solid flex option in Week 4.
D.J. Chark Jr. (WR, JAX): With 22 targets in three games and two touchdowns, Chark Jr. finds himself in flex territory for Week 4. With two games over 12 fantasy points and one with less than three, Chark Jr. is the definition of a high upside flex option. Teams are targeting the receiver position at the fifth-highest rate against the Bengals. As a result, Lawrence should provide Chark Jr. with a lot of opportunities in Week 4. The only question will be if those targets are catchable…
Consider Sitting
Trevor Lawrence (QB, JAX): Ask me last year if I thought Lawrence would ever be a “sit” against the Bengals and I would have laughed at you. After all, he is the golden child of this rookie class, going against a historically bad Bengals defense. Instead, here I am telling you that Lawrence has been very disappointing for fantasy this year. Many want to blame it on the coaching staff while others say it’s the talent around him. Regardless, seven interceptions in three games is not inspiring. Outside of his gunslinging Week 1 against a brutal Houston defence, Lawrence has failed to score more than eight fantasy points in each of the last two weeks. Now he gets his primetime debut against a Bengals team that has shockingly allowed the 10th fewest fantasy points to the position and is tied for 7th in interceptions this season. Personally, I still need to see Lawrence prove his fantasy value in an Urban Meyer NFL system before I play him in any format.
Laviska Shenault Jr. (WR, JAX): Shenault Jr. has disappointed a lot of fantasy owners this season after many people named him the breakout receiver for this team. Unfortunately, through three weeks, despite averaging over six targets per game, Shenault Jr. has a mediocre 65 total receiving yards with under five yards per target. He has yet to show fantasy upside this season and should not be trusted in your line-up.
It’s already Week 4 and we’re rolling with our picks this year. So far we’re 5-1 on combined picks this season. The Bengals look to be a completely different team this season. Coming off of their first win at Heinz field since 2015, this team should be fired up to show off during primetime this week. Regardless if you trust the Bengals this year, there is no denying that Jacksonville has looked THAT bad. I think people who see the Bengals as hefty favourites are immediately scared, leaving the spread to be set at a very reasonable number. As always, thank you for starting another week with my analysis. I wish you all the best!
Ellis’ Picks: Cincinnati -7.5 (2-1), Under 46.0 (3-0)
Career record: Spread (11-10), Over/Under (12-9)
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