RADIO
Home run power is a trait that has become increasingly rare in baseball over the past few years. 2014 showcased the lowest power numbers of the last 20 years, and a further decline is expected in 2015.
As flashy home run numbers continue to diminish, those who can truly hit the long ball are becoming as valuable as ever for fantasy baseball owners. Below are a few players that could see their overall fantasy values increase from last year, along with an increase in their home run and power totals.
Editor’s Note: Be sure to check out all of RotoBaller’s 2015 fantasy baseball rankings articles, including dynasty/keeper ranks & in-depth rankings analysis to get you ready for your drafts. Let’s win some leagues!
Nolan Arenado - 3B, Colorado Rockies
You had to guess that there would be a Colorado player on here, right? Thin air and high altitude accommodate the Rockies hitters very favorably. Those elements help comprise the second most HR generous ballpark in the league, which is just where Nolan Arenado will thrive this year. His home run numbers haven’t jumped off the board yet but his spring training and sabermetrics indicate that he’s ready to break out.
The jump from Arenado’s rookie season to sophomore season is actually pretty unbelievable. He improved in nearly every category despite missing time on the DL. Among others, he raised his batting average from .267 to .287, HR from 10 to 18, and slugging percentage from .405 to .500 despite 22 fewer games and 54 fewer at-bats. His confidence at the plate also earned him a 28 game hit streak. His HR numbers haven’t been elite but his flashes of power indicate he’s ready to reach the higher plateaus. His average true HR distance last year of about 409 feet reinforces that claim. His very low strikeout percentage at 12.4% meant he was constantly putting the ball in play. After all, you can’t hit a longball without putting said ball in play. His HR/FB% is above average at 11.4% but I expect that to rise even further as it jumped by more than 4% from the previous year.
Arenado’s self claim that he’s ready to be a star may very well come true this year. His incredible campaign last year was cut short by a broken finger but if he can see the field all year in 2015, he’ll post big time numbers. I expect Arenado to officially see his stardom blossom while reaching the 30+ HR plateau in 2015.
Mark Teixeira - 1B, New York Yankees
A report came out a few months ago that Mark Teixeira feels better right now than he has in years. As you guessed, he attributes this to his new gluten free, sugar free, and dairy free diet. Oh, you didn’t guess that? Well, that’s the case or at least half of it. He also recognized his revamped weightlifting program. Regardless, Tex said that he feels like a kid again and is capable of posting his once superb 30 HR 100 RBI numbers. Tex has struggled mightily with staying healthy the past few years. His success, like any player will be contingent on his ability to stay off the DL and in the Yankees lineup, but if he can manage that, the stage is set for a big year.
I don’t think I need to tell you of the charitable home runs that Yankee Stadium offers, but a 314-foot pop up to right field is enough for you to round the bases at your leisure. Tex hit 49 HR in total from the past three years, a number that was only six more than his 2005 total alone. During that three-year frame he averaged a Fly ball percentage of 40% as well as a 17.9 HR/Fly Ball %, and an average true HR distance of 384.5 feet. 2013 and 2014 were, however his worst campaigns in terms of average true HR distance. These aren’t sought after numbers from a player who once attributed much of his success to his HR ability.
With that being said, I believe a lot of this can be traced to his recent injuries and DL stints. It’s tough to regroup quickly following time on the DL and the lack of consistency can be a factor in his HR dip. If we take Teixeira at his word regarding his health, then that consistency will finally be there again. Yankee stadium doesn’t need Tex to crush baseballs 400 feet anyway. It’s officially time for Tex to see the resurgence that he desperately needs. I’m trusting Tex and saying he sees over 150 games and over 34 HR in the most generous stadium in the league.
George Springer - OF, Houston Astros
A guy that should be on everybody’s draft radar this year is George Springer. He carries a pretty high ADP and you’ll likely have to spend an early round pick to grab him but he’s absolutely worth the price tag. In 78 games last year he posted 20 longballs, many of the no-doubter variety. That rate would be good for over 40 HR if we extrapolate the numbers over a full season. I’ll be the first to announce his candidacy in the 2015 Home Run Derby.
Springer comes loaded with rare power and playing his home games in the eighth most generous park for HR hitters will allow him to flourish. His 39% FB percentage is going to equal a ton of homers in that ballpark, especially when we look at his HR/FB% that sat at almost 28% last year. He didn’t do owners many favors last year outside of his power, however. His 33% strikeout rate last year translated into many frustrated plate appearances perhaps adding to his poor batting average at .231.
Still, I think 35 HR is a fair floor to set to his upcoming season, yet there’s nothing that tells me he’s incapable of 40+. His average should come up and his strikeout rate should fall after a year under his belt, but owners will care more about the colossal HR numbers he’ll post this year. Through his extraordinary power and generous home digs, don’t be surprised when Springer makes owners very happy in 2015.
Power isn’t dead yet and these guys will prove it...
