The Korn Ferry 45 - Player Profiles and Research Tool

I have worked tirelessly to compile a database of Korn Ferry Tour data mixed together with PGA and DP World Tour data to help better analyze each golfer's statistical profile at a more detailed level. KFT data is extremely limited, so we have done our best to use it as advantageously as we could. This article has each player's name listed as a hyperlink above which will take you directly to their writeup. With so many KFT unknown graduates coming onto the tour, some of which playing very good golf, its essential to find out who these players are and when, where, and how we should play them. I have broken down each golfer into their strengths and weakness and "Betting and DFS Outlook".

Full disclosure: I have got about halfway through the writeups of each golfer (its been a busy start to the year) but I have every player profile card in here. To me, that's the most useful part of the article and has ALL the info you could wish for on each golfer. I want to get this information out there sooner than later so you can get the best benefit from it and will be updating the writeups in the next day or so. Use the table of contents at the beginning of the article to click on the golfer you want to research.

The cheat sheet that has all these stats in one place is available to any level premium subscriber (click here) of RotoBaller PGA. If you want to show your support for this awesome resource, use code "MANIAC" for 10% off a weekly or annual packages. The weekly "PGA Gold" package would be the cheapest way to get your hands on the cheat sheet, but I would say with unwavering certainty that getting the annual PGA Platinum package is a total no brainer as you get my stuff, Spencer Aguiar's ELITE betting track record, Joe Nicely and Joe Idone's premium work as well. You also have access to our DFS Optimizer and other tools. So much for a really competitive price that goes a long way to helping me continue to provide this kind of stuff for you! <3

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How are we ranking the Korn Ferry Forty Five?

**I have run out of time to update the names and numbers in this preface from last year, but the logic and reasoning is all still very relevant.

This deep dive into the KFT players gaining their tour cards is partially based off of the true strokes gained (TSG) query that Data Golf has on its site. “True strokes-gained is simply raw strokes-gained — the number of strokes you beat the field by in a given tournament-round — adjusted for the strength of that field.” For more on true strokes gained visit: FAQ (datagolf.com) . The order golfers appear in this article is based off of this metric.

It will also include the raw strokes gained (RSG) for each player at a round-by-round level to determine what kinds of courses (easy, medium, hard) each golfer excelled on this year. On the KFT there were 11 easy courses (top five players averaging lower than -15), 13 medium courses (top five averaging lower than -10) and one course played hard (top five did not average lower than -10). If a KFT member played a few events on the PGA Tour, there may be a few more hard courses in his profile.

Before diving into each player’s profile, we will need to understand the significance of Raw Strokes Gained vs True Strokes Gained. To put it into perspective, in 2022 Rory McIlroy (+2.18) and Taylor Montgomery (+1.78) lead the PGA and KFT in respective RSG (a difference of 0.4 per round), but their TSG were +2.40 and +0.44 which is almost two strokes per round difference. Anticipating how KFT players would fare on the PGA, True Strokes Gained will give us a more realistic view.

With little to no strokes gained data available for OTT, APP, etc, we are going to dissect their strokes gained total numbers. We will be analyzing their top 75^th percentile of results and their average results. For this article we are going to call the 75^th percentile a player’s ceiling, as this refers to the lowest strokes gained total of their best 25% of rounds. We want to identify who is most likely to play great golf (high upside/ceiling) compared to who consistently plays good golf (high floor).

For example, Vincent Norman and Nicholas Lindheim both averaged -0.64 TSG over the last 12 months. Although they averaged the same number of strokes in their 20+ events, Norman had a 75^th percentile (ceiling) of +1.45, while Lindheim’s was +0.9, which was reflected in Norman’s two T5s while Lindheim had no T5s. This is a tiny nuance that has very little statistical relevance when looking at PGA Tour players, but with so little data available to us it is something that can help differentiate players that make up the KFT 50 when looking for upside in a more talented PGA Tour field.

We are also going to look at a player's last 12, 8 and 4 months' worth of TSG to decipher if they are heading into the new season with recent form that has surpassed their 12-month baseline. There are multiple instances of golfers who have improved tremendously throughout the year as well as those who played well early on and have since lost that level of play. To be on an upward/downward trend there needs to be a difference of +0.25/-0.25 TSG between time frames.

The main point of this article is to find as many edges as possible so we can take advantage of the KFT 45 early in the season before they accumulate more reliable PGA stats. If you have a differing opinion on an element of this article, please feel to reach out to me on Twitter @TheModelManiac and I will be happy to have a discussion about it. Although I think this article is perfect, I am fully aware I am not.

Now, let's dive into the "Korn Ferry Forty Five"!!!

Nicholas Lindheim

Strengths

PGA Experience
3 Putt Avoidance
SG APP / GIR%
Bogey Avoidance
Par 3 Scoring
Easy / Medium Scoring
Winning

Weaknesses

Distance
Sand Save%

Betting / DFS Outlook

First Round Leader / R1 Showdown
Easy and Medium courses, especially where accuracy over distance is rewarded

Alexander Bjork

Strengths

Scrambling %
Putting / 3 Putt Avoidance
Bogey Avoidance
Hard Scoring Conditions
Approach Play
Par 3 / Par 4 Scoring

Weaknesses

Distance
Birdie %
Winning tournaments

Betting / DFS Outlook

First Round Leader / R1 Showdown
All difficulty courses, especially where a) accuracy over distance is rewarded and B) emphasis on short game

Ryan Fox

Strengths

PGA Experience
SG OTT
SG Putting
SG ARG
Easy and Hard Courses

Weaknesses

Not too many top 10s, despite win, but played in PGA Tour fields half the time
Par 4 Scoring
Bogey Avoidance
Accuracy
GIR%

Betting / DFS Outlook

Top 40 market would reflect his general range of outcomes on the PGA Tour
No particular split between rounds

Adrian Meronk

Strengths

SG APP
SG OTT
SG Putting
Medium & Hard Scoring
Sand Saves
Par 5 Scoring

Weaknesses

3 Putt Avoidance
Easy Scoring
Accuracy

Betting / DFS Outlook

Very solid in R1, R2 & R4
First Round Leader on Medium and Hard Courses

Thorbjorn Olesen

Strengths

SG OTT
SG APP
Sand Saves
SG ARG
Par 5 Scoring
Easy and Medium Scoring

Weaknesses

Distance
Hard Scoring Conditions

Betting / DFS Outlook

Round 3 and 4 Showdown on Easy and Medium Courses

Ben Kohles

Strengths

Accuracy
Scrambling
Bogey Avoidance
Par 3, 4, 5 scoring (well rounded)
Easy and Medium Scoring

Weaknesses

Distance
Putting average

Betting / DFS Outlook

Round 2 Showdown, Classic DFS
Recent form looks incredible and may be an outright option with odds in 100-1 range

Adrian Dumont de Chassart

Strengths

Easy Scoring!!!
Accuracy
Scrambling
GIR%

Weaknesses

Sand Save%
Medium and Hard Scoring (small sample size)

Betting / DFS Outlook

Wait and See... recent form has very bad

Jake Knapp

Strengths

Distance
Scrambling
3 Putt Avoidance
Birdie & Bogey %
Par 3 and Par 5s
All course difficulty

Weaknesses

Putting Avg
No Win Despite Elite Top 10 Rate

Betting / DFS Outlook

First Round Leader / R1 Showdown
Top 20 market as he has immense upside but never finished better than 5th

Alejandro Tosti

Strengths

Distance
Easy and Medium Scoring
Birdie %
All Hole Types

Weaknesses

Accuracy
Putting / 3 Putting

Betting / DFS Outlook

First Round Leader / R1 Showdown / Weeklong GPPs
Top 20 Market as he is boom or bust

Jacob Bridgeman

Strengths

Bogey Avoidance
Top 20 beast
Accuracy
Medium and Hard Scoring
GIR%
Birdie %
Bogey %

Weaknesses

Can't win

Betting / DFS Outlook

Super consistent golfer as punt in single entry contests
First round showdown
Top 40 market

Joe Highsmith

Strengths

Accuracy
Birdie %
Par 5 Scoring
Medium & Hard Scoring
GIR%

Weaknesses

Easy Scoring
Par 3 Scoring

Betting / DFS Outlook

Round 2 Showdown and Single-entry contests

Victor Perez

Strengths

SG Putting
SG APP

Weaknesses

Distance
Accuracy
Birdie %
Par 4 Scoring

Betting / DFS Outlook

Recent form very blotchy. Wint that got him to graduate came a year a go. Wait and see.

Matthieu Pavon

Strengths

SG Putting
Easy & Medium
Bogey Avoidance
SG ARG

Weaknesses

Distance
Accuracy

Betting / DFS Outlook

Round 1 showdown / FRL
Top 20 Market

Ben Silverman

Strengths

Accuracy
Par 3 and 4 scoring
Scrambling / Sand Saves
Easy Scoring
Birdie %

Weaknesses

3 Putt
Par 5
Hard Scoring

Betting / DFS Outlook

Recent form a little rough. Wait and see.

Ryo Hisatsune

Strengths

Driving Accuracy
SG ARG / Sand Saves
SG Putting

Weaknesses

Par 5 scoring
3 Putt Avoidance
Distance

Betting / DFS Outlook

Top 40 Markets
Weeklong DFS

Flag Hunting's take on Ryo

Top-tier content my man! I do think you're underrating Ryo's upside though - dude already has four wins worldwide at 21 y/o & hasn't finished worse than 21st in seven starts (including a win at Le Golf National, a 6th at ZOZO, and an 8th/13th in the two big-boy events Down Under)
— Flag Hunting Pod (@flag_hunting) January 8, 2024

Jorge Campillo

Strengths

SG APP
SG Putting
SG ARG
Par 3 Scoring
Medium & Hard Scoring

Weaknesses

Accuracy
Birdie %
Par 4 & 5 Scoring
Easy scoring

Betting / DFS Outlook

Very inconsistent. Wait and see.

Max Greyserman

Strengths

Par 5 Scoring
Distance
Scrambling
Bogey Avoidance
Medium and Hard Scoring

Weaknesses

Sand Save

Betting / DFS Outlook

FRL and R1 Showdown
Top 20 market - hot and cold upside

Rico Hoey

Strengths

Distance
Accuracy
GIR%
Scrambling
Par 5 Scoring
Easy Scoring

Weaknesses

3 Putt
Sand Save%

Betting / DFS Outlook

Recent form has been rough. Wait and see.

Chris Gotterup

Strengths

DISTANCE
GIR%
3 Putt
Birdie %
Bogey Avoidance
Par 3, 4, 5
Easy Scoring

Weaknesses

Sand save
Scrambling
Accuracy
Best finish was 4th

Betting / DFS Outlook

Round 2 showdown
Top 40 market

Robert MacIntyre

Strengths

SAND SAVES
SG APP
SG OTT
SG ARG

Weaknesses

Birdie %
Bogey %
Par 4 Scoring
Accuracy

Betting / DFS Outlook

Bobby has not been playing all that well. The 2nd at the Scottish Open did all the heavy lifting. Wait and see.

Mac Meissner

Patrick Fishburn

Parker Coody

Chandler Phillips

Sami Valamaki

Jimmy Stanger

Ryan McCormick

Chan Kim

Roger Sloan

David Skinns

Josh Teater

Grayson Murray

Scott Gutschewski

Wilson Furr

It’s early in 2024 but “it’s a little off the right” from the Monday Q might be the caddie line of the year. pic.twitter.com/9FhWxO2x75
— Monday Q Info (@acaseofthegolf1) January 9, 2024

Rafael Campos

Tom Whitney

Norman Xiong

Kevin Dougherty

Pierceson Coody

Trace Crowe

Paul Barjon

Blaine Hale Jr.

I am not going to try pretending that I know anything about Blaine Hale even after researching him. What I do know, is that he has been an incredible story, gaining his PGA Tour card without status on any tour. Below is his track record for 2023 on the All Pro Tour (APT) where he had three 3rd-place finishes. His solo third at Q School clinched his tour card after a ridiculously rough few years leading up to this life changing moment. With Blaine, we are going to have to wait and see if he just rode a hot streak or if he is starting to hit his stride on the golf course as a pro.

Hayden Springer

Hayden Spring finished T4 at Q School after two wins and a T6 on the Canadian Tour which is incredibly difficult to find any additional information on. These Q School guys are true enigmas with backgrounds of an ex-government assassin. Springer only managed a T53 in his fourth and final KFT event in 2023 and missed the cut at the Fortinet, losing 4 strokes putting on Friday after a really solid -3 on Thursday to give him a really good chance at making the cut which ended up at -2.

Based off his two rounds at the Fortinet, he appears to have normal distance off the tee, gaining strokes in both rounds. The rest of his game is a mystery, but he seems to be playing some really good golf right now and may be worth throwing into your lineups if he lands up in the 6k range in the first few tournaments of the year.

Raul Pereda

This dude is really exciting to watch! He chipped in twice in the final round of Q School to secure his tour card after a very shaky start. He also found himself alongside Tony Finau in a tie for 4th place after round 1 at the Mexico Open, where he hails from. The T60 at the Mexico Open came as a result of a +5 in the final round, where another -1 round like he had done in R2 and R3 would have seen him finish T30.

Based off these Mexican Professional Golf Tour results, he evidently has the game to play better than most his competition, but once he gets close to the top of a leaderboard things tend to get really shaky. 13 of his 15 MEX and SAM (Latin America Tour) were 22 or better, but not a single finish better than T5 with that level of consistency is rather concerning for his ceiling outlook. But, he has a PGA Tour card now and seems like a viable R1 showdown and FRL candidate based off his ability to go nuclear early in events... I think.

I hope you enjoyed this article and that it is useful to you over the next few weeks and don't forget to show your support by getting the badass cheat sheet here

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