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Welcome to our Sleeper NBA DFS prop picks for Wednesday, March 27. The NBA-betting world is still buzzing with the news surrounding Jontay Porter’s prop-rigging scheme and there’s no certainty that big slates like tonight are still a good thing for prop bettors.
This isn’t the first and won’t be the last time players have manipulated bets, and with gambling becoming so popular so quickly, there’s a long, treacherous road ahead. The NBA is in a precarious spot with gambling exploding, the regular season needing to garner more attention along with an expiring TV deal, so already the NBPA’s hands are quickly filling up.
There was already an effort issue that plagues the regular season and now bettors have even more to worry about with potential rigging. It may not become popular, but we shouldn’t be surprised if more investigations come out based on sporadic betting patterns and players potentially impacting those results. Regardless, a 12-game slate is always a palette cleanser from an entertainment perspective, so there’s no reason to let one bad apple spoil the bunch.
Sleeper offers some of the best and easiest-to-win NBA DFS games in the industry. Sleeper DFS works just like regular player prop betting -- there are no large-field tournaments in which to get lost. You're not playing against other people; you're just playing against the projections. Here are some of our favorite NBA prop picks for Wednesday's 12-game slate.
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NBA DFS Props - Over/Under Picks for Wednesday, March 27
Tyrese Haliburton OVER 0.5 Double-Doubles
You can link Tyrese Haliburton, Jarrett Allen, and Victor Wembanyama’s double-double prop along with Kevin Durant’s special offer for a 6x multiplier tonight. The Pacers and Bulls hold the highest point total, and we’re locking in a bet for Haliburton to put up at least 10-10. His assist numbers have dropped substantially over the second half of the season, with him projected for just 9.05 assists tonight.
Clearly, that’s not what we want to see from a numbers and optimizer standpoint. Still, with how well Pascal Siakam is playing and Haliburton’s obvious involvement in this offense, 10 assists are nothing for a league-leading playmaker in a high-scoring game. For the first time all season, Haliburton is officially averaging under 10 assists through games-over-recent-weeks metrics, but that doesn’t change the fact that he’s still posting 10 assists or more in seven of his last 11 games.
Jarrett Allen OVER 0.5 Double-Doubles
There are certain centers you have to be wary about when betting on rebounds. Seems ridiculous, but there’s a reason why Kristaps Porzingis averages so few rebounds a season. Despite his ridiculous length, he doesn’t attack rebounds like a traditional big, and he is rarely able to use his strength to successfully box out opponents. Allen, on the other hand, poses with a similar stature but possesses the ability to create rebounds for his teammates if he isn’t able to get there himself.
Evan Mobley’s inconsistent rebounding numbers are a good indicator that rebounding-by-committee has been the strategy when it comes to missed shots, but that doesn’t mean Allen willingly gives up boards. He has before, but we’ve also seen him go ultra-mega-rebounder-mode, and it makes this line seem like an absolute joke. It’s possible that he hits the under because it’s always possible, but the Hornets have been a team to target when facing impactful and physically imposing centers.
Draymond Green OVER 6.5 Points
There’s some defense needed for this pick, so let’s get straight into it. Betting on Draymond Green’s points is the opposite of good betting. We know that there is one thing Green will do in this game, and it is not scoring. Not to mention, Jonathan Isaac is quickly remaking a name for himself as the league’s best defender and could eat every shot attempt Green puts up. However, looking at the game through still-lens is pointless.
Isaac will likely not waste his time defending Green on the perimeter, and the last time Green took under five shots in a contest was over 10 games ago, in early March. With around 10 games left and the Warriors not perfectly secured in their standing, Golden State cannot afford many more losses, and a lot of that starts with defense and passing. Since Green has been decently involved in this offense outside of last game’s blowout, there’s no reason to assume he’ll shoot less tonight. Despite not being a strong scorer, everyone who watches him knows that seven points is only a matter of effort, not skill.
Be sure to also check out our brand new PrizePicks Optimizer tool and the free PrizePicks DFS Props Tool to see more recommended picks.
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