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Welcome to our Sleeper NBA DFS prop picks for Friday, March 15. No need for optimizers with a slate this ugly. When algorithms suggest you take unders on players trending upwards and overs on players like Gradey Dick, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, or Herbert Jones, it’s better to ignore the rating system altogether. Those Bruce Brown unders look viable, but he’s played well in his last two games, and that’s concerning given his streaky scoring and the Raptors' lack of options.
Friday’s six-game slate hosts just two out-of-conference matchups: Hawks @ Jazz and Suns @ Hornets. Atlanta versus Utah lay claim to the highest point total for today, and there will be plenty of overs hitting throughout that game. Without Lauri Markkanen, the core of Collin Sexton, John Collins, and Keyonte George have been the Jazz’ go-to players, with Sexton leading the charge in terms of playmaking and running the offense. Worst case scenario, those three players have lines at least worth checking out.
Sleeper offers some of the best and easiest-to-win NBA DFS games in the industry. Sleeper DFS works just like regular player prop betting -- there are no large-field tournaments in which to get lost. You're not playing against other people; you're just playing against the projections. Here are some of our favorite NBA prop picks for Friday's six-game slate.
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NBA DFS Props - Over/Under Picks for Friday, March 15
Collin Sexton OVER 6.5 Assists
The 6.5 line is high, given his season average of 4.7 assists per game, but lately, the Jazz offense has been scoring despite the losses. As long they keep it up, Sexton is the one running things since he initiates and often times is driving to pass and make the defense shift. His scoring hasn’t taken a backseat, and truthfully, that may never happen, but with how well some of his teammates are playing, we should see an excess of ASTs tonight, both directly and indirectly, generated by Sexton.
The Hawks defensive effort this year has made a mockery of the NBA product. Time and time again, it’s specifically this defense that is getting torched by opposing talent. For example, this team just gave up 36-7-8 to Anfernee Simons and a 33-point, 19-rebound game to Deandre Ayton two days ago. With already two of the main Hawks contributors designated with injury tags, we should assume this game remains close and both Sexton and George handle the offensive workload in another high-scoring matchup.
Jimmy Butler OVER 0.5 Three-Pointers Made
There is no rhyme or reason when playing one of the worst teams in the league. Most of the time, you just take what they give you, and it’s enough to win. Only a very few times have the Detroit Pistons won games with their defense, and it takes a group effort to stop a team like the Miami Heat. Not only do you have to worry about Bam Adebayo in the paint, but the Heat have playmakers and shooters throughout their roster. Even if Jimmy Butler isn’t having a great game scoring, chances are he’s impacted the game in other ways.
If Butler decides to take it easy this game, there’s still a literal 100% chance he’s going to be open at one point on the perimeter. I’m not sure there has been a game this season when facing the Pistons that an opposing player hasn’t been wide open standing at the three-point line at least one time. Butler posted 26 PTs on 13 shots with a single made three when these teams played in early March, and we should see a similar result here. The only thing that scares me about this bet is Butler making the conscious decision to specifically not shoot a three because the team he’s playing is so bad, and he simply doesn’t need to…a thing he’s done before.
Nikola Jokic OVER 8.5 Assists
Sometimes it feels repetitive talking about players you usually hear too much about anyway. What can actually be said about Nikola Jokic that’s going to make you feel better about taking this bet that hasn’t already been said? He’s a triple-double machine playing the next-up, generational big-man. Jokic won the first matchup handily and proved how much development Victor Wembanyama needs physically, but in terms of stats and betting, there’s plenty of upside for Jokic here despite Wembanyama’s prowess.
You can go with just about anything here and it’s supported by data. Jokic’s AST total is projected to be nine, with his rebound projection sitting at just 12.48. Even with both those numbers barely projecting above his actual line, it’s clear that Jokic has an obvious advantage here across the board. Of the most recent games Jokic has been held under 8.5 ASTs, most have come against defenses that revolve around a skilled, defensive-minded big man like Anthony Davis, Jusuf Nurkic, or Adebayo. Since the Spurs don’t have the team cohesion needed to help limit Wembanyama’s weaknesses, expect Jokic’s physicality to be the reason he’s so productive tonight.
Be sure to also check out our brand new PrizePicks Optimizer tool and the free PrizePicks DFS Props Tool to see more recommended picks.
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