Sleeper.com NBA DFS Prop Picks - Over/Under Props for Friday, January 12

Sleeper NBA DFS prop picks for January 12, 2024. Use Jake's NBA over/under props recommendations to win money on Sleeper.

Welcome to our Sleeper NBA DFS prop picks for Friday, January 12. Thursday night was a great reminder that betting on NBA basketball is by far one of the most unpredictable sports to gamble on. Not only were there multiple blowouts throughout the league, but the Celtics were getting beat so bad they didn’t even bother to play their starters in the second half. While that’s certain to anger some bettors, it’s better to use it as an example for why you need to temper expectations when betting on a league that has made a mockery of lineup transparency regulations.

Sleeper offers some of the best and easiest-to-win NBA DFS games in the industry. Sleeper DFS works just like regular player prop betting -- there are no large-field tournaments to get lost in. You're not playing against other people; you're just playing against the projections. Here are some of our favorite NBA prop picks for Friday’s 10-game slate.

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NBA DFS Props - Over/Under Picks for Friday, January 12

Tyler Herro UNDER 5.5 Assists

Usually playing a tougher defense means you can bank on the heavy-usage players shouldering more of the offensive workload. With Miami’s current roster, Tyler Herro is going to be at the top of the totem pole and he’ll have no choice but to try and get his teammates involved. That’s not a guarantee that he’ll get assists and playing the Magic is the exact defense that limits that type of production.

Over Orlando’s last four games, only the following players have posted six or more assists, in order from least recent to most recent: Domantas Sabonis (12), De'Aaron Fox (7), Jamal Murray (9), Nikola Jokic (8), Trae Young (9), and Mike Conley (10). All players that are known for having high-assist games within their team’s explosive offenses. The Heat are not one of those offenses and Herro is not one of those players.

Tyrese Maxey UNDER 2.5 Turnovers

The fact that Tyrese Maxey has posted nine assists in each of his last three games means turnovers are eventually coming, but that doesn’t mean it’s happening versus the Kings. Just know that very rarely will any point guard continually post high-assist games without a decent number of turnovers. That being said, Maxey is on a very hot streak and the Kings defense doesn’t force a ton of turnovers when facing ball-dominant guards.

Two positive aspects for taking the under here is that Maxey exceeds expectations by turning the ball over less when facing tougher defenses and the Kings struggle to generate turnovers unless they are playing a bad offense. Since Maxey is the one at the reigns of a 76ers offense desperate for a win, Sacramento's defense is going to have their hands full defending Maxey with the greenest of lights.

Paul George OVER 2.5 Assists

Since this line hasn’t changed and Wednesday’s performance was nothing short of reassuring, Paul George’s peripheral prop lines are still looking extremely obtainable. Three assists for a player that naturally involves teammates is insanely low, but there will always be cause for concern when sharing the court with James Harden. George might be playing well, but the ball still goes through Harden first.

Against the Raptors, every Clipper posted an assist, and expect a similar result against the Grizzlies. Memphis’ defense struggles mightily on most nights and this will be the first time these Grizzlies are facing a lineup with this much firepower. For reference, the last time these teams played, Ja Morant, Santi Aldama, Marcus Smart, and Bismack Biyombo were all available and playing. Their starting lineup for Friday is Desmond Bane, Luke Kennard, Vince Williams Jr., Jaren Jackson Jr., and Xavier Tillman Sr.

Be sure to also check out our brand new PrizePicks Optimizer tool and the free PrizePicks DFS Props Tool to see more recommended picks.

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