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Welcome to our Sleeper NBA DFS prop picks for Friday, April 26. The first thing you’re going to notice when opening RotoBaller’s Prop-Optimizer is that projections seem off.
Not the numerical projections specifically, but using our first pick as an example, you shouldn’t need to be told to avoid the Daniel Gafford overs tonight. He’s been played off the court in two games and now is dealing with a back injury. The risk seriously outweighs any reward, but Gafford isn’t the only one in that type of situation tonight.
Pascal Siakam absolutely torched the Bucks' defense in Game 2, and his projections all call for under bets. Watching both the Mavericks and Pacers series, it’s obvious which direction both players are trending in, so be wary of numbers and projections as the playoffs start. Projections and stats can tell a story, but in postseason basketball, none of that actually matters.
Sleeper offers some of the best and easiest-to-win NBA DFS games in the industry. Sleeper DFS works just like regular player prop betting -- there are no large-field tournaments in which to get lost. You're not playing against other people; you're just playing against the projections. Here are some of our favorite NBA prop picks for Friday's 3-game slate.
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NBA DFS Props - Over/Under Picks for Friday, April 26
Daniel Gafford UNDER 5.5 Rebounds + Assists
As stated earlier, Gafford is getting played off the court. His minutes are dropping, not only because of a back injury he’s playing through, but because he can’t do anything to counter the Clippers offense. Normally, even moderately-skilled big men struggle on the defensive end in the playoffs, but literally just standing in the paint as a strong paint presence and contesting shots at the rim help keeps the defense locked in.
Gafford can’t seem to handle the schemes thrown at him since he’s barely able to cut off angles and is actually making life easier for the offense. He’s starting halves which at least gives him the chance to prove doubters wrong, but the way things have looked, Gafford being on the court basically frees up Ivica Zubac or Mason Plumlee to roll the rim freely. The only positive to pull from Gafford starting is that a parlay for his points and rebounds under is +160.
Ben Sheppard OVER 3.5 Points
Whenever Giannis Antetokounmpo returns, this series will shift drastically. The narratives currently set will be dismantled, and both offenses and defenses will need to adjust accordingly. Until then, the Pacers seem to have found their rotation for this current Bucks defense, and Ben Sheppard is a major part of it. Game 1 was a bit fluky, but after playing 23 productive minutes and scoring eight points on four attempts in Game 2, he should undoubtedly be prepared for more minutes looking forward.
The line is extremely low, and as always, bench players are never the first to eat, but Indiana is a pass-first team and rarely wins games solely on the back of one player. Siakam may have put up 37 points on a 31% usage rate, but Tyrese Haliburton set teammates up all game, not to mention both Myles Turner and Andrew Nembhard put up at least 20 points each. Sheppard isn’t afraid to shoot, and after stringing together two quality games, Game 3 gives him the chance to make it a trend.
James Harden OVER 17.5 Points
It doesn’t matter who is available for the Clippers each night; James Harden is their guy. He controls the offense and is the primary playmaker for a reason. The Mavericks defense struggled most of the season, and it’s carrying over into the postseason. Usually, teams designate one player to try and stick with Harden, but the Mavericks don’t have that luxury. They are forced to rely on team defense, and that’s where Harden thrives. He knows how to pull defenders out of their comfort zone to create offense, even if, most of the time, it’s an offense for himself.
Playing passively or not, Harden is a score-first player and he never fails to get touches. Los Angeles has already reduced their rotation to eight guys and all seven are feasible weapons for Harden to use to his advantage. He’s scored at least 20 points in both Games 1 & 2, and has been the perfect counter to Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving’s offense. Regardless of how many games this series lasts, Harden is looking like the one player the Clippers want to keep feeding.
Be sure to also check out our brand new PrizePicks Optimizer tool and the free PrizePicks DFS Props Tool to see more recommended picks.
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