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Kyle Bishop highlights six pitchers who can be drafted for less than $10 in 2021 fantasy baseball salary cap leagues. These players are potential sleepers and draft values.
Snake drafts are the more common method, but salary cap leagues offer a more complex flavor to your draft day. That's not for everyone, and that's fine; part of the beauty of fantasy baseball lies in its high degree of customizability. Salary cap drafts take longer, and they're much less straightforward than snakes, but for those managers willing and able to put in the extra effort, the potential reward is vast.
The freedom to acquire literally any player you might want is a double-edged sword, and without sufficient preparation, it will be difficult to construct the foundation of a winning roster. That means being flexible in your thinking is of paramount important, and the easiest way to do that is to compile a deep knowledge of the player pool. That will illuminate the many paths to the numbers you're after.
The players we'll discuss today may or may not fit into every one of your visions for success, but they'll almost certainly fit into your budget. Here, we'll be looking at a half-dozen pitchers whose recommended prices check in at single digits, based on our staff rankings. I've also included their average NFBC draft costs for reference, but didn't use them as the primary qualifier because that data includes only 15 drafts. Note that these values assume a $260 budget, so you may need to adjust accordingly for your specific settings.
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Pablo Lopez (SP, MIA)
$9 | $13 NFBC
If we were simply using NFBC data here, Lopez wouldn't qualify, but I think the managers in those 15 drafts have the right of it with their aggressive bidding on the 25-year-old. He allowed 12 earned runs in a two-game rough patch in the middle of the abbreviated 2020 season, but only permitted 11 in his other nine starts. It all added up to a 6-4 record with a 3.61 ERA and 1.19 WHIP, and a lot of underlying numbers ticked in the right direction.
Lopez bumped his K% by four points, his swinging strike rate by two percentage points, and cut his home run rate in half while inducing ground balls at a 52% clip. All of those were career bests, as were his average exit velocity (85.7 miles per hour) and barrel rate (4.3%). Small samples, of course, but Lopez has been well-regarded in the fantasy community for a while now, and looks primed to put together a breakout year.
Corey Kluber (SP, NYY)
$8 | $8 NFBC
Kluber will be 35 in April. He's started just eight games in the last two seasons. Seven of those came in 2019, and they weren't very good. What came before 2019 was a five-season run of dominance that included two Cy Young Awards and made him one of the safest bets in the game:
Even in his dominant days, Kluber usually started slowly, so it's likely he won't be great right away. For that reason, you may prefer to let someone else pay for him in the draft and hope they lose patience. But assuming he's healthy, he has literally never produced a full season that was anything less than stellar. The risk is more than baked in at this price, and in a season where managers are falling all over themselves to land top of the rotation horses, they may be overlooking a bargain with a long history of being exactly that.
German Marquez (SP, COL)
$6 | $5 NFBC
With the uncertainty around pitching volume and the potential for a rash of injuries in 2021, elite starting pitching is getting pushed up draft boards even more than usual. But is that the right move? A few of my colleagues have pointed out the considerable value of rostering elite relievers at a fraction of the cost, and recommending Marquez is in a similar spirit, because it's with a mind to only start him on the road.
Beginning with his breakout in 2018, the 26-year-old has tossed 251 innings away from Coors Field with a 3.08 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, and 249 strikeouts. He eclipsed the 100 inning mark on the road in both 2018 and 2019, and tossed 43.2 across his seven road tilts last year. If you need additional volume, the occasional home start could be worth the risk, especially against weaker opponents. And while it's unlikely given his cost-controlled contract, imagine what the Rockies trading him away would do for his value.
Jose Urquidy (SP, HOU)
$5 | $4 NFBC
Urquidy's five starts in 2020 yielded lovely ratios (2.73 ERA, 1.01 WHIP), but the process was less appealing as his K-BB% plummeted from 19.8% in 2019 to 7.8%. A bout with COVID put him behind the eight-ball to start the year, though, and he showed well enough as a rookie that we shouldn't rush to judgment over 29 pandemic-ravaged innings anyway.
The lackluster peripherals have kept his price reasonable, and Urquidy enters the season with a guaranteed rotation spot for the first time in his career.
Drew Pomeranz (RP, SDP)
$5 | $6 NFBC
The Padres have a lot of quality arms in their bullpen, which means ample competition for saves. But when you're getting gaudy ratios and strikeout totals, who gives a crap about saves? Since converting from starter to reliever in 2019, Pomeranz has thrown 47 innings with a 1.71 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and 79 strikeouts.
Whether or not he finishes games for San Diego, the southpaw will provide plenty of value to your fantasy squad, especially in a year where inning volume may be harder to come by and therefore place even more of a premium on quality.
Nick Anderson (RP, TBR)
$6 | $8 NFBC
Anderson's got a longer track record as a reliever and doesn't issue as many free passes as Pomeranz, but he's in a similar boat: obvious elite arm with concerns over role.
His playoff struggles and the Rays' fluid bullpen management strategy have depressed his price a bit, but we're talking about a guy with a 35.7 K-BB% across 81 career innings. No reason not to jump on that train, even he has to share the wealth in the ninth.
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