Davante Adams - Path To Overall Fantasy Football WR1

August 11, 2023

Will Davante Adams finish as the WR1? Mitch Blatt breaks down Adams' fantasy football outlook with the Las Vegas Raiders heading into the 2023 season and how he could finish as WR1.

Fantasy football managers are down on Davante Adams. Last year, he finished as the WR3. This year, he's being drafted as the WR8. 

Why the lack of confidence in the most talented wide receiver in the NFL? The reason is obvious: having Jimmy Garoppolo throwing him the ball doesn't inspire confidence.

I'll be honest; I was a little bit worried about Adams, too. I am rostering Adams as one of my keepers on my team in my home league. So maybe I'm giving you the case for what I hope more than for what I expect.

Davante Adams' 2022 Season

Last season was Adams' first away from Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers. Since he was drafted in the second round in 2014, Adams has always played for one of the best quarterbacks in NFL history. It took him a while to get going. He was held under 500 yards in each of his first two seasons, and he didn't have his first 1,000-yard season until 2018. 

By now, he has established himself as one of the best all-around receivers. Whether you look at route running, creating separation, winning contested catches, beating pitiable cornerbacks deep, or making the most of a slant, Adams is elite at all of it.

There was still a question about how much extra Rodgers added to Adams' production. In 2022, Adams showed that even without the four-time MVP helping him, he could still dominate. In fact, Adams had one of the best seasons of his career, catching 100 passes for 1,516 yards and a league-leading 14 touchdowns. His yardage and touchdown totals were both the second-highest of his career. 

Davante Adams' Situation in 2023

The Raiders released Derek Carr and signed former 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. Carr played poorly last season, completing just 60.8% of his passes and throwing 24 touchdowns to 14 interceptions. 

Prior to 2021, Carr looked like a better quarterback than Garoppolo. Nevertheless, Garoppolo recorded a much higher completion percentage (67.2%) than Carr in 2022 and has a higher completion percentage (67.6% vs. 64.6%) in his career. So Garoppolo's production might end up being an upgrade over the QB play from Carr last season.

Head coach Josh McDaniels' play-calling probably didn't help. Commentators criticized him for not being aggressive enough and not working to Carr's strengths. McDaniels was the offensive coordinator for the Patriots under Bill Belichick from 2006 to 2008, and then again from 2012 to 2021 (as with many of Belichick's coordinators, New England was the only place he had succeeded so far). His tenure overlapped with Jimmy G's first three years in the league.

While Garoppolo didn't play much during that time, he did start two games in 2016. He completed 68.3% of his pass attempts for 502 yards, four touchdowns, and no interceptions. Perhaps McDaniels' approach will work better for Jimmy G. than it did for Carr.

Davante Adams made much of his production on deep passes last season, something that probably won't continue this season. Garoppolo has a weaker arm than Carr. But Adams is elite all over the field, and he can put up big numbers in other ways.

Davante Adams' Path to Finishing as Fantasy Football WR1

Take a look at the factors behind Adams' huge 2022 production and the changes coming to the Raiders' offense to get an idea of how he could conceivably finish as the WR1 this season.

Adams' 335.5 PPR points in 2022 (Weeks 1-18) were the result of an extremely high target share and a high volume of deep passes. The WR had 180 passes thrown his way (32.2% of all the Raiders' passes). 88 of those passes came when Adams was 10 yards or further beyond the line of scrimmage. His percentage of medium and deep targets was the highest of any season in the past five years. 

Adams won't get that many deep targets this season, but he has room for growth on short and intermediate routes. Carr only completed 52.0% of his passes of 10-19 yards (and 48.0% of those targeting Adams), one of his lowest percentages in years and much lower than Garoppolo's 62.7% in that range. Carr also had his lowest overall completion percentage (60.8%) of any season since his rookie year.

Despite Adams earning a career-high 180 targets, he only made 100 catches, fewer than he made in each of the past two seasons on fewer targets. His catch rate was the second-lowest of his career. If Adams is to finish as WR1, he will need to be more efficient on more targets of shorter depths. His target number has increased every year since 2019. 

If he can match the 192 targets Cooper Kupp earned in 2021 and come away with 69.0% of them (Brandon Aiyuk's catch rate in games Garoppolo led the team in passing), then Adams would finish the year with 132 catches. That is enough for the league lead most years. If his yards per reception return to his career average of 12.5, he will end up with over 1,600 yards. 

While he might not lead the NFL in touchdown catches again -- as he has in two of the past three seasons -- it wouldn't be a stretch to project him for 10-12 touchdowns. He has scored double-digit touchdowns in six of the seven past seasons, averaging 11.9 during that span. 

Calculating it out in this hypothetical season (admittedly one at the high end but not outside the range of outcomes), Adams would score 352+ PPR fantasy points. Last season, Justin Jefferson led WRs with 368.7 PPR points in 18 games. It is conceivable that 352 could be enough to lead the league in an off-year for receivers, or Adams could score a couple more touchdowns and end up with 370 fantasy points. 

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