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Thunder Dan Palyo gives you his 2025 NFL win totals for the AFC. Read his top prop picks and NFL futures bets for 2025. These NFL bets include team win totals for every AFC team.
I've been covering the NBA and MLB just about every day since the Super Bowl ended, but just like the rest of you football addicts, I am starting to get thirsty for some NFL action.
Every year, the schedule release videos and social media productions get more elaborate. And while I considered releasing my first set of picks a few weeks ago when schedules were announced, I thought it would be a better idea to let teams go through their first set of OTAs and see if most of the dust has settled in the free agency and trade markets. There's still some player movement that will take place in the next month or so, but for the most part, we know what team rosters are going to look like heading into Week 1 of the season, and we can start taking some educated guesses as to how the season will unfold.
We haven't even seen these teams play a preseason game yet, so we are going off what we saw last year and what we expect this coming season based on player movement, coach movement, and schedules. I have made my predictions on all 16 AFC teams (see the table below) and rated them by confidence level. Let's take a look at some of my favorite picks for the coming season. If you love my picks (or hate them), feel free to let me hear about them on X @ThunderDanDFS.
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NFL Team Win Totals: 2025 AFC Predictions
Odds are courtesy of FanDuel or DraftKings SportsBook. Strength of Schedule ratings are based on 2024 records.
Highest Confidence Picks
Buffalo Bills OVER 11.5 wins (-160 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Let's start with the chalk here. The public loves the Bills, as we can see by the odds on this bet. But what's not to love, right? The Bills return the NFL MVP, Josh Allen, at quarterback to lead one of the best offenses in football. James Cook, Ty Johnson, and Ray Davis might be the best 3-man backfield in the league, and all have different strengths that they bring to the table.
The Bills ran for 136.7 yards per game last season, which ranked 9th in the league. Cook had a career year, leading the NFL with 16 rushing touchdowns, and can do a little of everything. Ray Davis chipped in 442 yards on the ground while Ty Johnson added 284 yards as a receiver. Now, consider that Allen ran for another 531 yards from the QB position, too.
The offense added some help at the receiver position with Joshua Palmer arriving from the Chargers and Elijah Moore coming over from Cleveland. Neither guy is a home run hitter, but both should provide Allen with some reliable options as possession receivers alongside Khalil Shakir and tight end Dalton Kincaid.
Tre’Davious White brings familiar spark to OTAs in Buffalo Bills return https://t.co/IUJq4fDIP7 pic.twitter.com/azBJUosNvF
— BillsFans.com (@BillsFans_) June 2, 2025
The biggest improvement to the roster may be on defense as the Bills brought in Joey Bosa, Larry Ogunjobi, and Michael Hoecht through free agency to bolster their defensive line. Buffalo also drafted six defensive players in the draft, including cornerback Maxwell Hairston in the first round. Tre'Davious White returns from Baltimore to join the secondary as well.
The Bills will be favored, likely heavily, in all their divisional games as the Dolphins are trying to reload and the Jets and Patriots are rebuilding. The AFC North will provide some challenges, but they get the two best teams in that division at home (Baltimore and Cincinnati) as well as the Chiefs and Eagles.
They'll face one of the weaker divisions in football for the rest of their NFC opponents (NFC South) and should be favored over all of those teams, too.
Even though they'll face Baltimore, Kansas City, and Philadelphia, they still have one of the weaker schedules in the league. I think 12 wins is a lock, and I won't be surprised if they repeat last year's record and go 13-4 again.
Denver Broncos OVER 9.5 wins (+110 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Did you know the Broncos finished last season with the sixth-best overall DVOA rating? The offense ranked just 16th, but the Denver defense was elite down the stretch, finishing as the fourth-ranked unit in DVOA overall defense.
Bo Nix was better than advertised last year and showed some real grit in leading his team to a playoff berth in his rookie season. He gets another weapon at his disposal this season with the arrival of Evan Engram from Jacksonville, while rookie running back and second-round pick RJ Harvey could boost the Denver running game.
The defensive secondary was already one of the best in football, and yet Denver added another cornerback in the first round by selecting Jahdae Barron. The linebacking corps gets a boost with Dre Greenlaw coming over from San Francisco, and this defensive unit should be a force to be reckoned with again this season.
The most improved team this offseason is without a doubt the Denver Broncos.
One of the more underrated signings is Evan Engram & QB’s best friend is a great defense! pic.twitter.com/PVA7edxZbF
— Chase Daniel (@ChaseDaniel) March 17, 2025
The NFC East will provide a challenge for this young team, but they also drew a very favorable matchup with the AFC South, too. I have them sweeping that division and taking two games from the Raiders; that's six wins. I think they can split with the Chargers and Chiefs while picking up wins over the Giants at home and the Jets on the road. That gets us to ten wins and leaves us with a few more games in which Denver could be competitive against the Cowboys, Bengals, and Packers at home as well as the Commanders on the road.
We are getting plus odds on a team that showed nothing but improvement as the year went on and has the potential to take another step forward this season.
Los Angeles Chargers OVER 9.5 wins (+100 FanDuel Sportsbook)
I love what Jim Harbaugh is doing with this team. The Chargers won 11 games last season and then lost to the Texans in the Wild Card round in one of their worst performances of the season. That loss was not very indicative of the season they had, as they finished 9th in overall DVOA and notched impressive wins over Denver (twice), Atlanta, and Cincinnati.
We all know the Chiefs overperformed in terms of their record last year, and while they'll still be a good team this year, the Chargers and Broncos are better-equipped to compete with them, with solid defenses and improved offenses.
This offense could end up featuring one of the best rushing attacks in the NFL with the additions of right guard Mekhi Bechton and running backs Najee Harris and Omarion Hampton.
“This is a grown man’s sport, and he plays the game like a grown man.” 💪#Chargers Editorial Director @Eric_L_Smith got the inside scoop from team scouts on why Omarion Hampton was THE guy in the draft. pic.twitter.com/yH3BlyMMoT
— LAFB Network (@LAFBNetwork) June 2, 2025
When healthy, this defense is a very solid unit and complements the style of play that Harbaugh wants to instill here. As long as Justin Herbert protects the football, this team should be competitive every week. They'll need to beat some good teams this season to make it happen, but the pieces are all there.
The same logic that I applied to Denver works here, too. This is a team that is coming off double-digit wins that only got better, and they should be able to carve out 10 or more wins even in a tough division, thanks to getting the AFC South on the schedule.
Medium Confidence Picks
Baltimore Ravens OVER 11.5 wins (-110 FanDuel Sportsbook)
The schedule ranks in the top third of the league, but it's still hard to imagine the Ravens not getting to 12 wins this year. They brought back most of their starters on both sides of the ball and finished with the No. 1 ranked DVOA offense and No. 6 ranked DVOA defense last year.
They face the AFC East for their interconference matchup, and other than a huge rematch with the Bills (who ended their season in the AFC divisional round), they should roll over the rest of that division. The NFC North will bring some big matchups against Detroit and Green Bay, but the Bears and Vikings could struggle to match the physicality with which the Ravens play.
I expect Baltimore to continue to be the class of the AFC North. The Bengals could pose a challenge if everything breaks just right in Cincinnati, but Pittsburgh could be taking a step back, and Cleveland could be a big mess.
Houston Texans UNDER 9.5 wins (-120 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Using the Pythagorean records, it's easy to see that the Texans overachieved last year in terms of their win total. They also finished the season ranked just 16th in overall DVOA. While they repeated as division winners, it was a less impressive season for Houston last year than in 2023, as it appeared that C.J. Stroud regressed at times and their offensive line struggled to protect him again.
Stefon Diggs is now in New England, and Tank Dell's injury will keep him out for the entire season. The addition of Christian Kirk should help alleviate the pressure on Nico Collins, but the offensive line is being reshuffled with two new starters.
My concern is that the rest of the division should be better, and Houston won't have six easy wins on their schedule there. The Colts and Jags should be more competitive, and even Tennessee, too.
Your 2025-2026 Houston Texans schedule! pic.twitter.com/q5eLC9X8oA
— Tanner Nichols (@Tannernichols0) May 14, 2025
They drew the very tough AFC West for intradivisional games and what should be a pretty strong NFC West for interdivisional contests. I have them winning only 8 or 9 games this season, which could still be enough to win their division, but not enough to cover their win total.
New York Jets OVER 5.5 wins (-155 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Wow, the bar is set LOW for Justin Fields in his first season in New York in terms of wins. Jets fans have to be excited that the Aaron Rodgers failed experiment is over and that the franchise has a new head coach and an exciting, young, mobile quarterback at the helm of a revamped offense.
Justin Fields played quite well for the Steelers before being benched for Russell Wilson, and the Steelers did everything they could to force him to play within their system and limit mistakes. His rushing ability is indisputable and adds another dimension to an offense that was being run by a 40-year-old statue last season.
Breece Hall and Braelon Allen return to form a potent 1-2 punch in the running game in addition to Fields, who will surely do plenty of running of his own.
New Jets QB Justin Fields rolls out to his right, little jump throw, INSANE arm strength to get this ball to Garrett Wilson, his college teammate & good friend
pic.twitter.com/Qq5DB5mEPp— John Frascella (Football) (@NFLFrascella) June 2, 2025
The defense should be improved with the Jets adding five defenders to their top two units while drafting four more defensive players.
The schedule sets up nicely for New York as they'll face New England twice, Carolina, Cleveland, New Orleans, and Jacksonville. That could be five or six wins right there if we see even some modest improvement from this team. I have them pushing for 8 or 9 wins as I think they'll be competitive against Dallas, Atlanta, Pittsburgh, and Miami, too.
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