NFL Survivor Pool Picks (Week 6) - Targets and Avoids

October 17, 2021

Gambling expert Seth I. Finkelstein gives you his top NFL survivor pool picks for Week 6 of the 2021 NFL season and your 2021 survivor leagues.

By the growing weeks, football is becoming more like a video game. The deep passing attacks, defenses having such trouble to get a stop, and coaches going for it more and more often on fourth down. Chargers head coach Brandon Staley went for it with 10:34 to go in the third quarter. It was a fourth-and-two situation from their own 24. They were trailing 27-13 at the time and a punt would have been completely reasonable. But Staley rolled the dice, converted, and ended up scoring a touchdown. Situations like those would have never ever happened 10 years ago. Bill Belichick was ridiculed for going it against Indy on that Sunday night game years ago from their own territory late in the fourth. If that happened today, it would have been applauded. The favored Chargers would go on to win, a common theme in Week 5.

In survivor pools, the only favorite to win lose were the Raiders against the Bears and they were minimally picked. Instead, the most-popular play, the Vikings, won on a last-second field goal against the Lions. The Patriots came from a double-digit second-half deficit to beat the Texans, Tampa dominated Miami, Dallas steamrolled the Giants, and just when you thought an underdog would win, the Ravens had a huge comeback win against the Colts on Monday Night Football. With all the favorites winning, are the underdogs due this week? It could happen with some of the biggest favorites going on the road.

All season long, I'll be bringing you weekly columns on teams to target and avoid each week. Strategy is a major part of winning this pool and this article will help you through the season. 

Survivor League Strategy

Not many entrants have been eliminated and the majority of people remain in most pools. I'm going to keep trying to save the best teams for later. When considering a certain team, check the schedule to see what are spots would be good to take them. And sometimes, it's nice to just take the best team and move on.

Teams favored by 7+ in Week 6

Lines are consensus from The Action Network (home team in caps); COLTS -10 vs. Texans, Rams -9.5 at GIANTS, and Bucs -7 at EAGLES.

If you're reading this article on Thursday or later, know that these lines are from Tuesday. Check the current spreads and see how the line moved.

With gambling now legal for some of you, I'm going to be giving out my three top plays against the spread. They'll be at the bottom. I'll also be giving my predicted score for games written about.

Top Survivor Picks for Week 6

COLTS -10 vs. Texans

I wrote this last week about the Patriots and Texans, 'Taking a below average team off a game where they played their hearts on national television, but lost usually backfires the next week. The example I keep thinking of is the Raiders last year against the Chiefs on Sunday night. They took Kansas City to the wire, then were heavily bet the next week and were blown out in Atlanta.' Well, New England should have lost. They were down 22-9 in the third when Houston executed an atrocious punt. The punter trying to fake it, then punting it off their offensive line's helmet, going a net of zero yards. Point is, Indy is in the exact same situation.

Despite the loss to Baltimore, the Indy offense was very efficient; 8.1 yards per play, 4.7 yards per carry, and 5/10 on third down. Carson Wentz was 25/35 for for 402 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions. Wentz has rebounded after a rough start to the year. His yards per attempt through six games, 7.6, is his highest mark since 2018. Houston has the 25th ranked defense in that department. Overall in opponent yards per attempt, the Texans rank 21st.

There will be other chances to take Indy (Week 9 vs. Jets, Week 10 vs. Jags, Week 13 at Houston, or Week 18 at Jacksonville.) So there are other spots to use the Colts.

Colts 24 - Texans 16

The Rams should have no problem taking care of business against the Giants. This offense leads the league in yards per play, 6.7, and rank sixth in converting third down's. The Giants defense ranks 24th in opponent yards per play and 29th in third-down defense. The Rams will put up 30 easily, the Giants will have no answer.

The only question is whether to use the Rams here or later. They host the Lions next week, travel to Houston a week later, and also play in Jacksonville in Week 13. Looking ahead the next three weeks, I would take Colts in this spot, Cardinals at home against the Texans next week, and then in Week 8, the Rams against Houston or Chiefs against Giants.

Rams 37  - Giants 19

BUCS -7 at Eagles

I'll be saving Tampa for Week 11 at home against the Giants on Monday Night Football. Week 11 is sure to be a very hard week to choose.

Bucs 30  - Eagles 25

Chiefs -6.5 at WASHINGTON

Kansas City needs this one. But like I said above, they are a much better option in Week 8 against the Giants.

Chiefs 40 - Washington 28

Top Survivor Picks to Avoid

STEELERS -5 vs. Seahawks

I never like taking a team with a bad offense. The Steelers did score 27 Sunday but are still averaging 18.8 points per game, 27th in the league. They're also 24th in yards per play.

Seattle will be without Russell Wilson. Geno Smith will be starting, but is a serviceable quarterback. He looked pretty good in relief against the Rams last Thursday night.

Steelers 23 - Seahawks 21

Bills -5.5 at TITANS

Bills 37 - Titans 31

Best Bets

• Vikings -1 at Panthers - Minnesota would be favored by seven if this game were at home. I thought these teams are more even, but Vegas doesn't. Enough for me.
• Browns -3 vs. Cardinals - Cleveland has a potent running attack, ranking first with 187 yards per game. The Arizona defense gives up 139 yards per game, 28th worst.
• Cowboys -3.5 at Patriots - This is just simple logic. Dallas scores 34 points per game, second in the league, while New England averages 19.2, 26th worst.

Running Totals

• Last week: 1-2
• 2021 season total: 7-7-1
• 2020 season total: 24-27
• 2019 season total: 23-26-2

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