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Week 3 is do or die for some NFL teams. Starting a season 0-3 spells doom.
In NFL history, only five teams have made the playoffs after starting 0-3. Teams like the Bills, Colts, and Washington are in must-win situations. More on these matchups below.
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Survivor League Strategy
After losing in many many survivor pools over the years, I have learned what games to avoid.
1. Avoid divisional bouts
Last season in Week 2, the Saints were a sure thing lock of the year against the Buccaneers in New Orleans. Tampa Bay ended up winning, knocking many people out of their survivor contests. Also last year, the Packers were heavy favorites against the 1-7 Lions in Lambeau and proceeded to lose.
2. Avoid taking a road team
I would rather put my money on a home team with a home field advantage. The rule doesn't apply to a team playing in San Diego. The road teams fans fill up a majority of Qualcomm Stadium, making it a de facto home game for the road team.
3. Avoid using all the top teams early so you can use one later in the year
You do not want to be alive in Week 11 deciding if you should pick the Browns, Chargers, or Rams.
Before making any picks, look at each point spread. Vegas has the best minds, smarter than any of us, use them to get a glimpse at how each team is projected to fare that week.
I will be using the lines from sportsbook.ag for the season.
Top Survivor Picks for Week 3
@Dolphins -10 vs. Browns
The Browns are a tanking disaster. They don’t seem to be trying and this article is everything you need to know.
Third-round pick Cody Kessler, from USC, will be the fifth quarterback in the last five games to start for Cleveland. This could have been Carson Wentz starting had the baseball genius bought into his hype. The Browns also fired scouts who preferred Wentz over Goff.
I don’t think the Dolphins will amount to anything this year and don’t agree with the 10- point line, but the Browns are just so bad. The Fins need a win and the Browns don’t want to win.
@Bucs -5 vs. Rams
Jameis Winston looked fantastic in the opener at the Falcons, but looked like he did in his rookie season this past Sunday throwing four picks and fumbling once. This will be the Bucs home opener and they face a Rams team that is brutal to watch. The Rams got their first L.A. win on Sunday and now fans will have to watch Case Keenum stink up the place again. Until Jeff Fisher names Jared Goff the starter and reenergizes this team, I have no faith in their offense to score a touchdown or for this team to win.
I can't even imagine what goes through the Rams defensive players' heads. They know they can't allow more than 14 points a game, but if they do, they will probably lose. That much pressure will burst one of these Sundays.
With the Broncos and Panthers on deck for the Bucs, it makes this a must-win game against the Rams.
I expect the Bucs to end their four-game losing streak on Sunday.
@Colts -3 vs. Chargers
A must-win game for the Colts. I think Andrew Luck picks apart the Chargers secondary en route to Indy's first win of the season.
Top Survivor Picks to Avoid for Week 3
@Giants -4.5 vs. Washington
Nothing can go right for the Skins. The papers in D.C. have ripped the team this week and the locker room has lost faith in Kirk Cousins. This is a must-win game and it must come against the 2-0 Giants in New York. The Giants have looked good winning both games by a total of four points. I’m not sure if that’s a good or bad thing.
Through two games Josh Norman has, surprisingly, been the best cornerback in the NFL, according to Pro Football Focus. That could pose trouble for Eli Manning. If Manning is careless, then this could be one of the games where he falls apart and throws four picks. In a game the Giants should win, they may fall. I’ve seen the Giants blow this kind of game too many times.
Cardinals -5.5 @ Bills
This is one of the more intriguing games of the week with enormous implications for both teams.
After a loss to the Patriots, the Cardinals came out and throttled the Bucs, putting themselves back in the conversation as a top team. The Cards defense stymied Jameis Winston and the Cards offense was clicking. The Cardinals have to travel to the East Coast for a 1 p.m. game. It’s always tough for a west coast team to travel to play in the early slate of action on Sunday. A 1-2 start for the Cardinals would be very disappointing with their Super Bowl aspirations.
This is a must-win game for Buffalo Rex’s last stand. If the Bills lose, will Rex get fired? He is currently the favorite to be first coached fired. If the Bills lose this one they will be 0-3 with road games in New England and St. Louis Los Angeles. I could see them losing all three and starting 0-5. This team has shown nothing but ineptitude on the field, but for some reason this point spread is only 5.5. If the Cardinals are truly a Super Bowl contender, and the Bills are so bad why isn’t this 8 or 9? For some reason, I get the feeling this game will either be over in the first half or come down to the final five minutes.
