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Scott Cullen provides his Week 11 NFL DFS prop picks for November 17th, 2019 on Monkey Knife Fight. Make your DFS picks with his fantasy football advice.
As the NFL season heads into crunch time, with teams jockeying for position, there are some great opportunities to play props and win with Monkey Knife Fight.
The Star Shootout games provide chances to play using the biggest names in the game, and with some lineups getting depleted by injuries at this point, there is something comforting about making picks involving big-name starting quarterbacks, star receivers and workhorse running backs.
I mean, even quarterbacks that haven’t been especially good this year have brought a certain among of productivity. Looking at you, Jameis!
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STAR SHOOTOUT - EARLY GAMES
OVER/UNDERS
Drew Brees OVER 317.5 PASSING YARDS – Last week’s loss to Atlanta was a relatively disappointing performance from Brees and he still threw for 287 yards. He’s still averaging 343.3 passing yards in his three complete games this season and the Tampa Bay defense is not exactly a shutdown operation, allowing a league-high 298.9 passing yards per game so this looks like a good bounce-back opportunity.
Jameis Winston OVER 295.5 PASSING YARDS – He makes his share of mistakes, and then one or two more, but the Bucs quarterback is averaging 348.5 passing yards per game in his past four games. Figure that the Bucs will be chasing the Saints which means more reason for Winston to throw to his talented wide receivers.
Matt Ryan UNDER 288.5 PASSING YARDS – After putting up big passing yardage totals for much of the season, Ryan has been held to a total of 341 yards in his past two starts. Going up against a Panthers Defense that is allowing 226.8 passing yards per game doesn’t seem like a spot for Ryan to get back to the big passing numbers.
Deshaun Watson OVER 275.5 PASSING YARDS – Although he threw for just 201 yards in last weeks’ blowout win vs. Jacksonville, Watson had thrown for 276 or more yards in four straight before that. In a marquee quarterback matchup against Lamar Jackson, the Texans should give Watson his opportunity to shine.
Dak Prescott OVER 275.5 PASSING YARDS – Detroit’s pass defense has been shaky, allowing 272.4 passing yards per game, the fifth-highest average in the league. Dak has been a high-ceiling, low-floor performer, so the hope has to be that the Lions’ pass defense vulnerability gives Dak another shot at a big passing game.
Michael Thomas OVER 8.5 RECEPTIONS – The Saints superstar is averaging – averaging – 9.6 receptions per game this season and has nine or more catches in five of the past six games. Is the Bucs defense going to be the one to shut him down? Come on now.
RAPID FIRE
Christian McCaffrey -3.5 rushing yards vs. Ezekiel Elliott – It’s such a small spread for guys that run as much as McCaffrey and Elliott, and the Panthers running back is averaging 23.3 more rushing yards per game (109.9 to 87.6).
DeAndre Hopkins +2.5 receptions vs. Michael Thomas – My position on Thomas, as stated above, is that he’s obviously great. Incredibly productive and consistent. Hopkins has been a little disappointing overall this season but has made 37 catches in the past four games and will have to be a big target for DeShaun Watson in a tough game against Baltimore.
STAR SHOOTOUT - LATE GAMES
OVER/UNDERS
Tom Brady OVER 289.5 PASSING YARDS – TB12 has thrown for fewer than 289 yards in three straight games but coming off a bye week and facing an Eagles team with mediocre pass defense numbers might be just what he needs. The Patriots passing game did look more dangerous last game as Brady gained some comfort with newcomer Mohamed Sanu, so another reason to like Brady’s chances to get back on track.
Jimmy Garoppolo UNDER 270.5 PASSING YARDS – With tight end George Kittle and wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders hurt, Jimmy G is fighting an uphill battle before Sunday’s game against Arizona begins. There’s also the matter of Garoppolo averaging 228.5 passing yards per game and being held under 270 passing yards in five of his past six starts.
Carson Wentz UNDER 17.5 FANTASY POINTS – The Eagles passing game has been conservative and will be taking on a Patriots Defense that has allowed 150.2 passing yards per game. They also ought to be extra-motivated after getting spanked by Baltimore last week, the first time all season that an offense put the Patriots on their heels.
RAPID FIRE
Julian Edelman -12.5 receiving yards vs. Tyler Boyd – Two slot receivers. One is the preferred target of Tom Brady, the other the preferred target of Ryan Finley. Okay, it’s not that simple. Edelman is averaging 73.7 receiving yards per game and has double-digit targets in four straight games. Boyd has 66.4 receiving yards per game but most of that was before the Bengals turned to a rookie quarterback.
Josh Jacobs -37.5 rushing yards vs. Tevin Coleman – Coleman is averaging 56.4 rushing yards per game but may get more touches with Matt Breida injured. Jacobs is averaging 90.1 rushing yards per game and gets to face a Bengals team giving up a league-high 173.0 rushing yards per game.
James White +0.5 receptions vs. Darren Waller – Early in the season, when Waller was busting out as a major threat for the Raiders, this would go one way. Now, though, Waller has seven catches, total, in the past three games. White had a season-low two receptions last week but he’s still averaging 5.5 catches per game which makes him a lively underdog in this matchup.
