Running Back Matchups to Target for Week 15 (2025) - Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, Chris Rodriguez, More

December 14, 2025

Thunder Dan's favorite RB matchups to exploit for Week 15 of 2025 -- DFS running backs to target on DraftKings and FanDuel. These RB matchups are GPP and cash game opportunities.

It's Week 15 of the NFL season, and we have one of the biggest NFL DFS main slates of the year with 13 total games. That creates a bigger player pool and hopefully dilutes the chalk a bit, which is a great thing for tournament players and those willing to stray from the most popular plays. Right now, Christian McCaffrey and Woody Marks project as the two most highly-rostered running backs, and I'll sign off on both being solid plays for cash games. But neither player cracked the top five in my matchup ratings, so I'll explore some other, more lightly-rostered options instead.

I will drop the usual disclaimer that while total touches and red-zone usage are factors that should always be considered, my goal in this article is to locate the best overall matchups for running backs using some advanced statistics to do so.

The primary focus of this piece is NFL DFS; however, these are also running backs you should smash into your season-long lineups and great candidates for prop bets. We also have lots of great NFL DFS articles and NFL DFS tools to help you win MORE this season! Without any further ado, here are my top four matchups for the main slate of NFL games.

Week 15 Running Back Matchups

In my constant search for usable metrics, I crunched the first 14 weeks of data. The first column shows the overall offensive rushing attack vs. the opponent, calculated from each team's offensive and defensive DVOA.

The second column is the offensive vs. defensive line matchup, calculated from each team's "adjusted line yards" created and allowed. The third column is simply Pro Football Focus' run-blocking grade for each team's offensive line.

Derrick Henry ($7,300 DK, $8,400 FD)

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals

It feels like we just saw this movie, right? The Ravens and Bengals just played two weeks ago on Thanksgiving Day, with the Bengals pulling off a big upset of Baltimore on the road. It may have been Lamar Jackson's worst game in recent memory, as he turned the ball over with fumbles and an interception, leading to a negative game script for Henry in that one.

But Henry still crushed this matchup in limited touches. He turned 10 carries into 60 yards and a touchdown and ripped off a huge 44-yard reception to finish with 104 scrimmage yards on just 15 touches.

Keaton Mitchell scored the other touchdown for Baltimore in this game, and while he's earning some carries as a solid change-of-pace back from Henry, he's still not a threat to usurp that much usage from the King.

Henry handled 25 carries in last week's loss to the Steelers, but was held out of the end zone for the first time in a month. It feels foolish not to go back to this spot this week, just because it didn't work out as we had planned in the first meeting. I mean, what's changed?

The Ravens are still a run-first offense that wants to pound the football, and the Bengals still rank 31st in the NFL in DVOA rush defense. Cincy has allowed 100+ scrimmage yards to opposing backs in seven of their last eight games.

Baltimore is favored by 2.5 points on the road in the rematch, and they have to know that running the football successfully is the key to beating this Bengals team and keeping Joe Burrow off the field. Look for the Ravens to lean hard on King Henry in what amounts to a must-win game if they want to keep their playoff hopes alive. What we saw from Henry in the first matchup was his floor, and his ceiling this week is 100+ rushing yards and multiple touchdowns in this matchup.

Saquon Barkley ($7,100 DK, $8,500 FD)

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Las Vegas Raiders

The Eagles have struggled to run the ball consistently this season; there's no doubt about it. Even with Lane Johnson out again this week, there's reason to believe that this offensive line can open up some holes for Barkley against a Raiders' run defense that has been steadily getting worse as the season goes along.

If you check the chart, the DVOA matchup grades out as neutral (49 with 50 on our scale being average), but we can see that the offensive-defensive line matchup is positive at 63, and that Philly's run-blocking grade continues to improve and is now up to 69.

We saw Barkley break out for 20-122-1 against the Chargers last week, his best performance in over a month. The defensive line of the Raiders ranks right behind the Chargers in the "adjusted line yards" metric. If you're not familiar with that statistic, it attempts to quantify how many yards per rush can be attributed to the blocking of the offensive line and is not a result of the skill of the running back (breaking or evading tackles).

Week Fourteen (Monday Night Football)

Saquon Barkley Rushing TD (5)
pic.twitter.com/qFGnJFMj3d

— NFL TD Videos (@NFLTDVids) December 9, 2025

There's nothing wrong with Barkley this year. You can see that on runs like this, where he has a hole and explodes through it and then runs over, around, or through defenders in the second level. The issue in Philly has been the blocking and, you could argue, the play-calling, as the inconsistent passing game has allowed opponents to stack the box and key on Barkley.

I don't think the Eagles will have much trouble moving the ball against the Raiders this week, as their pass defense is quite bad, too. Despite all their recent struggles, this team is still a 12.5-point home favorite and rightfully so, as the Raiders are bottoming out and turning to Kenny Pickett at quarterback. This game has the potential to provide Barkley with a great game script, and he, like Henry, is pretty badly underpriced on both sites for his matchup and touchdown upside.

Chris Rodriguez Jr. ($4,900 DK, $5,700 FD)

Washington Commanders at New York Giants

Let's start by addressing the possibility that Rodriguez could not suit up tomorrow, as he's currently listed as questionable. However, he did get in some limited practices on both Thursday and Friday, which gives me some optimism that he will be good to go and ready to resume his role as the top back in the Washington rushing attack.

Chris Rodriguez Jr. Listed as Questionable for Sunday https://t.co/T31KEPN69J

— RotoBaller NFL (@RotoBallerNFL) December 12, 2025

The Commanders' matchup this week really pops in a big way, and I simply can't ignore it, even if the division of labor between Rodriguez, Jacory Croskey-Merritt, and Jeremy McNichols is messy.

If you thought the Bengals' run defense was bad (and it is), then you should really dig into what the Giants run defense has done (or maybe "hasn't done" is more appropriate, as in they haven't really stopped anyone).

The Giants have allowed an average of 90 yards rushing per game to opposing RB1s, and you might think, "Well, that's bad, but it's not THAT bad." But what if I told you that those 90 yards were on 13.5 carries for an average of 6.7 yards per carry? When you factor in another 23 yards allowed to RB1 as receivers, you're talking about 113 scrimmage yards per game on around 15-16 touches.

When we look at the DVOA rushing metrics, the gap between Cincy (31st) and the Giants (32nd) is the same as the gap between Cincy and Philadelphia (18th). Yes, they have been THAT bad.

Rodriguez has been pretty solid since being allowed to handle the plurality of touches for the Commanders. He went 12-65-1 in a tough matchup against Seattle and then 15-79 against Miami a few weeks later. Even in their 31-0 thrashing last week, C-Rod still went 10-52, averaging over five yards per carry. He's been the goal-line and short-yardage back of choice for Washington as well, scoring touchdowns in four of their last seven games.

He's dirt cheap, and right now, he's not garnering much rostership. This is a play that could win you the slate. I am going to have a lot of C-Rod as long as he's healthy, and if he's out, I'll have to consider JCM and McNichols as well - the spot is TOO GOOD to pass up.

Blake Corum ($4,800 DK, $6,000 FD)

L.A. Rams vs. Detroit Lions

Can you indulge me for one minute in the smallest of victory laps? If you read this column, you would have seen that I touted Blake Corum as a super low-owned potential slate-winning play and, sure enough, the game played out perfectly for him to have a monster outing. Corum finished with a 12-128-2 line and the best performance of his professional career. Kyren Williams also ran all over the Cardinals last week, as the two backs combined for over 200 yards and three touchdowns.

Blake Corum rumbles 48 yards for the TD!

LARvsAZ on FOX/FOX Onehttps://t.co/HkKw7uXVnt pic.twitter.com/aroS7jo0iI

— NFL (@NFL) December 7, 2025

The Rams now own the top-ranked rushing AND passing attacks in the DVOA rankings and continue to steamroll lesser teams week in and week out. This week, they'll face the Detroit Lions in one of the better games on the slate. This one is ticketed with a massive 55-point total, and we simply can't avoid it in DFS as it should provide quite a bit of fantasy value.

The Rams grade out positively in all three categories and now own the best run-blocking grade in football. Sean McVay's offensive scheme is a thing of beauty, and the balance that this offense has with two elite receivers and a veteran quarterback allows them to be entirely unpredictable on just about every down and distance.

I am not playing Corum this week based on a blowout game script, but simply because he's very clearly earned the opportunity to work in for 30-40% of the touches in this backfield. While Detroit's run defense isn't bad (eighth overall in DVOA), they could still be overmatched here. Corum's elite per-touch production could be worth the cheap price tag here if he can continue to find the end zone, and even after his massive game in Week 14, no one is going to play him ahead of 20+ starting running backs on this slate.

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