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Shaun Evans looks into the NFL DFS projections for Week 12 to pick out some spots to attack and mispriced players for your FanDuel and DraftKings DFS lineups.
Week 12 of the NFL season is here, and it's coming down to the wire. Teams are on the outside looking for a way to get in, while others are close to locking up their playoff spots. Let us get a headstart on the Sunday main slate and look at the data.
This piece is intended to be a one-stop shop for readers to begin their DFS research for the week. While it always pays to wait for all the relevant information regarding weather, injuries, and even Vegas line movement during the week, it's also a good idea to get out in front of things early as there is a lot of data to consume!
We are looking at the NFL DFS main slate for FanDuel and DraftKings on Sunday, November 24. This analysis and data dump will vary from week to week and I hope it helps kick-start your research. Do yourself a favor if you haven't already and pick up an NFL RotoBaller Premium Season Pass and get all of the premium NFL DFS tools to help you have a successful season.
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Week 12 Vegas Totals and Team Data
In this section, we take a look at which teams should be expected to put up the most actual points this week (which usually means fantasy points, too). With it being Week 12, we will include some data from last season as well.
You shouldn't target ONLY the teams that are expected to score the most points, but the majority of your players are going to come from these teams each week. Deciding which offenses are worthy of stacking (and, of course, how you are going to stack them) is the challenge!
Top Implied Team Totals for Week 12: Main Slate Only
- Lions - 29
- Dolphins - 26.75
- Chiefs - 26.5
- Packers - 25
- Seahawks - 24.5
2024 Top-Scoring Offenses: Points Per Game
- Lions - 33.6
- Commanders - 28.0
- Buccaneers - 27.9
- 49ers - 25.0
- Packers - 25.0
2024 Stingiest Defenses: Points Allowed Per Game
- Broncos - 16.6
- Vikings - 17.0
- Lions - 17.7
- Bears - 18.7
- Chiefs - 19.1
The Detroit Lions are currently one of the most dangerous teams in the NFL. They are averaging 33.6 points on offense while holding their opponents to 17.7 points per game. Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Jahmyr Gibbs are a scary trio and one which you should look to stack this Sunday.
The Washington Commanders are the second-highest-scoring offense on this slate, averaging 28 points per game. They are coming off of a tough loss versus the Philadelphia Eagles and will be looking to turn it around. Austin Ekeler continues to be a consistent player week-to-week and could come in underowned.
The only teams in @NFL history to rush for 100+ yards and a TD in each of the first 10 games of a season:
1. 2024 @Lions
2. 1975 Dolphins
3. 1972 Cowboys
4. 1966 Cowboys
5. 1960 Packers
6. 1948 Browns
7. 1948 49ers
8. 1936 Lions
9. 1934 Bears#OnePride pic.twitter.com/2JX3ciIq0M— Detroit Lions PR (@LionsPR) November 18, 2024
Week 12 DFS Matchups
Here, we want to get specific not only with some mismatches for both passing and rushing offenses, but some individual positional matchups as well. Rankings will be based on the data that we have so far for the 2024 season.
Top-5 Matchups for Passing Offenses
(Yards Passing and Yards Allowed Passing ranks in parentheses)
- Seattle (2) vs. Arizona (21)
- Detroit (6) vs. Indianapolis (26)
- Indianapolis (21) vs. Detroit (27)
- Miami (23) vs. New England (20)
- Arizona (23) vs. Seattle (15)
This week's top-passing offenses have some difficult matchups on paper. Now, that doesn't mean you fade the Kansas City offense or Tampa Bay's or Green Bay's. The Green Bay Packers get a struggling San Francisco 49ers defense that continues to collapse in the second half. They may also be without Nick Bosa.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers get to face Tommy Devito and the New York Giants. There's a long shot that the Buccaneers also get Mike Evans back and if so, Baker Mayfield could have another solid outing. Seattle also pops up in the top 5 again and they'll be facing the Arizona Cardinals who allow 218.5 passing yards per game.
Top-5 Matchups for Rushing Offenses
- Detroit (3) vs. Indianapolis (28)
- Arizona (5) vs. Seattle (27)
- Washington (6) vs. Dallas (31)
- San Francisco (7) vs. Green Bay (14)
- Tampa Bay (10) vs. New York (29)
There are some solid running back options this Sunday and each of the top-5 matchups has one that can carry the workload. The Detroit Lions may just be mentioned in every section as Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery provide great upside. The Indianapolis Colts give up 143.1 rushing yards per game.
The Washington Commanders also provide two running backs that can dominate with their respective skill sets. Brian Robinson Jr. will continue being the top option but Austin Ekeler provides similar fantasy points. Robinson Jr. is the running back to lock in as he will carry the workload against a poor Dallas Cowboys defense.
Welcome back Brian Robinson Jr!#RaiseHailpic.twitter.com/dDUMlPkIlV
— COMMANDERS FOOTBALL (@HogsHaven) November 15, 2024
2024 Top-5 DvP (Defense vs. Position) Matchups for Each Position
(Top matchup listed first, player to target in parentheses)
QB - Tampa Bay (DeVito), Dallas (Daniels), Carolina (Mahomes), Las Vegas (Nix), Indianapolis (Goff)
RB - Carolina (Hunt), Dallas (Robinson Jr./Ekeler), Tampa Bay (Tracy Jr.), Arizona (Walker), Miami (Stevenson)
WR -Minnesota (Moore), Detroit (Downs), Tampa Bay (Nabers), Houston (Ridley), New England (Hill)
TE - Las Vegas (Trautman), Carolina (Kelce), Kansas City (Sanders), Tampa Bay (Johnson), Indianapolis (LaPorta)
DEF - LV (DEN), TEN (HOU), DAL (WAS), NE (MIA), NYG (TB)
The surprising team that pops up in four of the five categories is the New York Giants. While we shouldn't suggest Tommy Devito, Tyrone Tracy Jr., and Malik Nabers are solid options this Sunday, Tracy Jr. has been a young and dominating rookie alongside Nabers. The Giants offense isn't one to trust but with the change at quarterback, a spark could ignite them.
Since turning the backfield over to Tyrone Tracy Jr. five weeks ago the #Giants have the second best rushing EPA in the NFL.
The team has a ton of issues, minor among them is the loss of Barkley. If he was on this roster, they’d still be a losing team like 5 of 6 Barkley years. https://t.co/u6c72KApPA— Dan Schneier (@DanSchneierNFL) November 16, 2024
Week 12 DFS Salary Analysis
If you play exclusively on FanDuel or DraftKings (unlike me), then you may not find this next part all that helpful. But for those of you who play on both sites, what I attempted to do here was to find which impact players were significantly cheaper on one site than the other.
And while you will probably end up playing a similar player pool on both sites, the point-per-dollar value of each player matters, especially when making some tough decisions for your cash-game build. Remember that projections are also going to vary from FanDuel to DraftKings, as DK uses full-PPR scoring as well as player performance bonuses.
To compare prices, I found the percentage of the salary cap that rostering each player costs (remember that DK uses a $50K salary cap, while FanDuel uses $60K). Both sites have the same roster build with nine roster spots.
FanDuel Values (FD vs. DK)
- Tyrone Tracy Jr. ($6.7K vs. $6K)
- Austin Ekeler ($6.6K vs. $5.6K)
- Malik Nabers ($8.2K vs. $7.4K)
- Jameson Williams ($6.8K vs. $6K)
- Calvin Ridley ($6.3K vs. $5.7K)
DraftKings Values (DK vs. FD)
- Kenneth Walker III ($6.9K vs. $8.1K)
- James Conner ($6.5K vs. $7.7K)
- CeeDee Lamb ($7.3K vs. $8.4K)
- Travis Kelce ($5.8K vs. $7.2K)
- Jauan Jennings ($5.6K vs. $6.7K)
Cheap Stacks (DK vs. FD)
There are plenty of cheap value plays to fit around expensive stacks. As the pricing tightens up each week, I like to look for some of the cheapest viable stacks that feature the QB and one of their receivers (could be WR1, WR2, or TE1).
- Richardson - Downs ($11.8K vs. $14.4K)
- Young - Coker ($8.3K vs. $11.9K)
- Maye - Douglas ($10K vs. $12.3K)
- Smith - Smith-Njigba ($12K vs. $14.9K)
- Levis - Ridley ($10.6K vs. $13K)
- Nix - Sutton ($12.1K vs. $15.1K)
Alright, that's it for Week 12 and my data dump! I took quite a bit of time to find some stats that I hope you find helpful so that you don't have to! Good luck and make sure you continue following RotoBaller all season long for the best fantasy football, DFS, and betting advice!
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