RADIO
The 3-7 Pittsburgh Steelers visit Indianapolis to take on the 4-6-1 Indianapolis Colts on Monday Night Football this week. These two teams frustrate me. This game frustrates me. Not just because I really don’t care to watch them play each other in prime time, but also because I have no idea what to make of either of them except that they aren’t good. One of these teams has got to win. Or tie.
The AI model of the SHARP App has this game almost as a push. The Colts are given a 52% chance of victory, as of Friday evening. Their predicted margin is just -0.5. That’s quite a bit less than what Vegas is giving the Colts. The books have settled on Colts -2.5.
Analysis
I tend to agree that it is anyone’s ballgame. Both teams have been the definition of mediocre and inconsistent. They have had their ups and downs, making it hard to get a good large sample-size view of their character. The Colts switched quarterbacks, switched coaches, then switched back to their original quarterback. The Steelers switched quarterbacks, too, although their change to the rookie Kenny Pickett was more logical and had been predicted since the season began.
The Colts' weekly results have been all over the place. They got shut out by the Jaguars one week. They beat the Chiefs the next week. It looked like they had settled in as a below average team, then they hired their former center who retired ten years ago and never coached at the NFL or collegiate level, Jeff Saturday, and he won his first game on the sidelines and took the Eagles down to the final drive.
The Colts do have a significantly higher NFELO, ranking right in the middle at No. 18, while the Steelers are towards the bottom at No. 28. Despite that, the Steelers rank ahead of the Colts at offensive and defensive EPA/play. The discrepancy is due to the fact that the Colts have had to deal with a more difficult schedule.
If you are betting on this game, who would you take?
Where the Sharp Money Is
Most betters are taking the Steelers, both squares and sharps. Fifty-eight percent of the bets are on the underdogs to beat the spread and 95% of the money is. That differential indicates the sharps really like the Steelers to keep it close.
If the Steelers beat the spread, the chances are they’re also going to win. Betters, squares, and sharps both, also predict that. On the moneyline, 68% of betters are going with Pittsburgh, as is 82% of the money. The differential of value outweighing betting volume isn’t so extreme on the money as it is on the line, but it still points in the same direction.
Line Movement
All that money on Pittsburgh did push the line but not as much as might have been expected. Indianapolis opened the week as 3-point favorites on November 19, but the line settled at -2.5 by November 21.
After much pondering, I have settled on the Steelers. In a close game that you have pegged as 50-50, it only makes sense to take the underdog and get better odds.
I am not impressed by what the Colts have done under Saturday and Matt Ryan. They only beat the anemic Raiders by 5, and the Eagles are allowed a fluky poor showing in the same week the Vikings lost by 37. It never seemed as if the Colts would really win.
My Pick
The Eagles got to Ryan and sacked him four times. Ryan did not throw an interception for the second straight game, but that streak will not hold up forever. Throughout the whole season, Ryan has thrown picks at his highest rate since 2015. I could see T.J. Watt giving him hell, causing some errant passes or fumbles, and the Steelers profiting just enough off takeaways to win by 3.
As for the over/under, that’s 39.5, and I think it is a little bit high. The Colts have only hit 20 four times this season in 11 games. Twice they scored exactly 20. The Steelers scored 20 or more five times, including both of the last two.
Matt Ryan is used to playing in prime-time snoozefests. Give it to the Steelers, 19-16.
Betting Picks: The Steelers beat the spread, win outright, and keep the game total under 39.5.
Last Week's Results: The 49ers won and beat the spread, as I predicted, but they scored enough to put the game total over 43.5.
Season Record: 1-0 vs spread, 1-0 on the moneyline, 0-1 on points
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