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Joe Williams' MLB betting picks for 6/15/19. He analyzes Vegas lines and recommends the top expert bets for today's MLB slate including money-lines, spreads and totals.
Welcome to the Saturday, June 15th edition of RotoBaller's MLB Betting Picks. I will be serving up some of my top options on today's 15 game slate.
In this article, we will dive into the numbers and pick out my top recommended betting picks for today's slate. Feel free to contact me on Twitter @JoeWilliamsVI if you have any questions or if you'd like addition content and occasional gambling notes and tidbits.
Here are my picks for Saturday, June 15th. Be sure to check out all the MLB Vegas Odds and MLB Park Factors for today's slate. Good luck!
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Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins (-1.5, -125)
O/U: 9.5
The Twins are heavy chalk at home (-250) on Saturday behind LHP Martin Perez, so invest in the run line instead, a much better value. Kansas City has been a disaster overall, but especially so on the road. They're just 15-43 over the past 58 games on the road, 15-50 in the past 65 road games against a right-handed starting pitcher and 3-8 in the past 11 games inside the division, too. RHP Glenn Sparkman has given them a chance more often than not, including quality start in a loss last time out. However, they're 0-3 in his three starts, and 0-7 across his past seven appearances, too.
For the Twins, they're an impressive 13-3 across the past 16 starts by RHP Jake Odorizzi, while going 9-0 in his past nine appearances on a grass surface and 12-2 across his past 14 showings at Target Field, too. Minnesota is 4-0 in his past four appearances against teams with a losing record, too. With the Royals just 1-7 in the past eight trips to the Twin Cities, and 0-4 in the past four meetings overall, the first-place Twins are a good bet on the run line.
My Pick: Twins -1.5 runs, -125
St. Louis Cardinals (+140) @ New York Mets
O/U: 8
On the surface a matchup between RHP Michael Wacha of the Cardinals and RHP Noah Syndergaard should be a very well pitched game, especially if you're going off of the last start by Wacha. He was bumped from the rotation briefly, but roared back with a vengeance in Miami last time out. Of course, that's the Marlins, who have a rater impotent offense.
Wacha will face a better quality opponent, and both teams will be facing winds of 13-16 mph blowing out to straightaway center field in this one. The 'over' has cashed in four in a row for the Cardinals, the over is 4-0 in their past four on the road and 4-0 in their past four inside the NL East, too. The over has hit in four in a row for the Amazins', too, while going 3-1-1 in the past five vs. RHP, 3-1-1 in the past five against winning teams and 7-1 in Syndergaard's past eight against teams with a winning overall record. The over is 8-3-1 in his past 12 outings overall. In this series, the over is 8-1-2 in the previous 11 matchups, too. Roll with the over, and a small-unit play on the Cardinals in a parlay isn't a bad idea, as the Mets are 1-4 in Thor's past five tries vs. St. Louis, while the Mets are 1-4 over his past five starts overall, too.
My Pick: Cardinals +140 and Over 8
San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies (-165)
O/U: 11
The Padres and Rockies just combined for 28 runs in a wild and crazy night in the Mile High City on Friday night, a game which went to the visitors by a 16-12 score. San Diego hasn't had much luck following an offensive onslaught with success, as they're just 1-7 across the past eight games where they scored in double digits, including two shutout losses. Colorado is 5-3 across their past eight games after a 10-plus-run offensive explosion.
The Padres are a solid 5-2 over LHP Eric Lauer's past seven road starts, and 4-1 in his past five overall. However, they're just 1-4 in the past five road games, 1-5 in the past six vs. RHP and just 2-7 in their past nine battles against the Rockies. Colorado counters with RHP German Marquez, and they're 13-3 over his past 16 home starts, 4-1 in the past five inside the division and 5-0 in his past five against teams with a losing overall mark. They're also 16-5 in the past 21 games overall at Coors Field, while going 5-1 in the past six at home vs. LHP.
My Pick: Rockies -165
Philadelphia Phillies (-102) @ Atlanta Braves
O/U: 9
The most intriguing matchup of the entire card happens at SunTrust Park in Atlanta where the Braves look to extend their winning streak to nine straight games. However, they're be up against Phillies ace RHP Aaron Nola, while countering with LHP Sean Newcomb, a pitcher they banished to the minors earlier this season. As they say, all good things must come to an end, and that's what will happen with Atlanta's win streak.
The Phillies are 6-2 over Nola's past eight outings, and they're 21-8 across his past 29 starts following a quality start in his previous appearance. Atlanta is 4-0 in the past four starts by Newcomb, and 23-9 in the past 32 games overall, but percentages say the Braves are due for a setback, and the pitching matchup is tilted in Philly's favor, too. The Phillies have won five of the past six meetings in this series, too, although they have dropped six in a row in Atlanta. Still, you have to bank on Nola being able to get it done and splash cold water on the red-hot Braves.
My Pick: Phillies -102
