MLB Best Bets: Top Player Props & Novig Market Picks (Wednesday, 7/8/26)

July 8, 2026

Get Thunder Dan Palyo's top MLB best bets and player props for Wednesday, 7/8/26. Expert picks powered by the Novig betting exchange -- see today's highest-value plays. Win more with RotoBaller's expert betting advice.

It might be 6:00 AM, but I am still flying high after watching my favorite Pittsburgh Pirate, Ryan O'Hearn, smack three home runs yesterday and drive in 10 runs in front of the home crowd in Pittsburgh. Oh yeah, and my favorite strikeout prop of the day was Ian Seymour, who whiffed 12 Yankees in another tremendous performance by a starting pitcher against the struggling Pinstripes (spoiler alert, we are going after them again today!)

If you're reading this, I'll assume you also bet on baseball regularly. Today's picks will all be using the odds on the most unique and fastest-growing sports prediction sites -- Novig. If you're not familiar with the site, I'll explain how it works and provide some of my favorite wagers to place on Novig.

As always, make sure you're following RotoBaller on X and download the RotoBaller app for all your fantasy baseball and betting needs. Now, here are some of my favorite MLB bets and player props for Wednesday's games.

What is Novig?

Novig is one of the fastest-growing peer-to-peer sports prediction markets. On Novig, users trade directly with each other, without the "vig" typically associated with a sportsbook. The vig is the fee sportsbooks charge to use their services. It's a hidden cost in the odds offered on each side of a specific bet. When a book offers -110 odds on both sides of a bet, it is keeping close to 10% of every bettor's wager, regardless of whether you win or lose.

On Novig, users trade with each other on the outcomes of sporting events, similarly to the way that investors trade on the stock market. But instead of having to beat the books, you just have to win against other users -- the site keeps no commission.

Users can bet on most traditional sports markets, including moneyline bets, spreads, totals, player props, parlays, and futures!

Novig operates with two virtual currencies. Novig coins can be wagered for fun and to test out strategies, while Novig cash can be wagered on all markets and then redeemed for real cash prizes.

Access to Novig is widespread; it's now accessible in 36 U.S. states.

How Does Novig Work?

Since users are not playing against the books, there is an opportunity to make more money per wager you win, and users can usually find better value on bets (in terms of the prices offered) than on traditional sportsbooks.

There are no oddsmakers; users dictate their own odds. You can either accept the odds the market offers or set your own odds. If you set your own odds, another user has to accept them on the other side for the bet to be activated. Users drive the market, not the sportsbook or oddsmakers!

NRFI (No Runs First Inning) Bets

All odds are from Novig and were accurate as of 7:00 AM ET

Seattle Mariners at Miami Marlins: UNDER 0.5 runs - 1st Inning Total (-130)

It's George Kirby for Seattle and converted reliever Tyler Phillips, going for the Marlins in this one. Seattle has really struggled offensively lately, failing to score a run in 10 straight games, and Phillips has worked a clean first inning in six of his seven starts.

Kirby needs to come through here against a pretty hot Miami offense to cash this one, but I think he can do it. He is coming off two very good starts against the Pirates and Angels, and has the advantage of the wind blowing in from center field in what is already a pitcher's park in Miami.

MLB Team Totals

Detroit Tigers over 4.5 runs (-115) vs. Athletics (Jeffrey Springs)

Let's not overthink this one! Detroit's bats are hot right now, as they have scored at least five runs in 8 of their last 10 games. Meanwhile, the Athletics pitching staff continues to get pummeled, allowing five runs or more in six of their last seven! Jeffrey Springs doesn't scare anyone, and the Athletics bullpen behind him has been atrocious.

Colorado Rockies over 3.5 runs (-138) at L.A. Dodgers (Roki Sasaki)

Where is the respect for this Rockies offense? Colorado has a solid collection of young hitters in their lineup this year, and they are running hot right now, scoring an average of 7.8 runs per game over their last ten, going for four or more runs in 8 of those games.

1️⃣ month into the Cole Carrigg show🏔️

— .309 AVG
— .385 OBP
— .593 SLG💥
— .978 OPS🔥
— 21 R
— 4 HR
— 21 RBI
— 2 SB pic.twitter.com/VrlEfwuSaL

— SleeperRockies (@SleeperRockies) July 7, 2026

It's a good spot for the Rockies here as the Dodgers' starting pitcher, Roki Sasaki, has been floundering lately, too. He's given up 19 earned runs over his last 20 innings, yikes!

MLB First 5 Innings Bets

Washington Nationals F5 -0.5 (-113) vs. Houston Astros

There's far too much juice on the F5 moneylines today, so we are taking a shot on some run lines. I love this matchup for Washington, as they are rolling out their best pitcher, Foster Griffin, at home against the Astros. Griffin has been awesome this year, and Washington has led after five innings in his last six starts.

James Wood's 25th homer is a leadoff shot 💪 pic.twitter.com/NAeYxr0ylR

— MLB (@MLB) July 7, 2026

Houston counters with Spencer Arrighetti, who is having a fine season of his own. However, he's been pitching a bit over his head, with his ERA indicators all suggesting some regression. We have already seen that start to hit lately, too, as he gave up six runs to Cleveland and another eight runs to Detroit in the last few weeks.

San Diego Padres F5 -0.5 (-104) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

Betting on the Padres can give one anxiety, but it's hard not to love them in this spot as they hand the ball to the veteran Michael King. While the San Diego offense can struggle at times, they have an elite matchup today against Jose Cabrera and his 5.02 SIERA (6.41 xERA, too, oof!).

Novig Promo Code and Welcome Bonus

Use code BALLER to receive a $25 purchase match (50% off up to $25) on your first Novig purchase.

You also get six months of RotoBaller's "Big-4" Premium Pass (NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL), which includes exclusive tools for Betting, Props, DFS, and more!

You can claim your welcome offer to Novig right now by clicking on the image below.

Prop Bet Picks

All odds are from Novig and were accurate as of 7:00 AM ET

Shane McClanahan OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (+100)

While we usually like seeing a pitcher come into a matchup with a few games in a row in which they've gone over their prop, that is not the case with Shane Mac tonight. He's been under 5.5 strikeouts in three straight starts; however, there are a few factors here to consider.

For one, those starts came against the Dodgers and then the Royals twice in a row. He had his worst control of the season against L.A., walking five hitters and failing to get out of the fourth inning. He actually pitched quite well against the Royals, going six innings both times while limiting them to just two earned runs over those 12 innings. He didn't rack up strikeouts, and KC is very tough on lefties (just ask Cristopher Sanchez!)

The Yankees, however, are not tough on anyone right now. Ian Seymour racked up 12 strikeouts last night. Griffin Jax had 10 the night before. Oh, and Joe Ryan had nine strikeouts the game before that!

New York is sporting a 33.5% K% vs. LHP over the last two weeks, good for the second-worst mark in MLB. This is just too good a spot for McClanahan, who, despite his lull in Ks recently, is still having a strong year.

Troy Melton OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (-130)

Let's talk about a young pitcher who is seemingly getting better with each start. Melton has allowed just two earned runs over his last three starts combined. He's also punched out at least five opposing hitters in five straight games, posting a season-high seven strikeouts against (you guessed it) the Yankees his last time out.

The Athletics enter tonight's contest with the third-worst K% vs. RHP over the last two weeks at 26.3% and just a 69 wRC+. Look for Melton to pitch well against this Athletics lineup that is a lot less dangerous on the road.

Christian Scott OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (-113)

Another young pitcher who has been streaking on his K prop is Mets' righty, Christian Scott. He hasn't pitched that deep into games, but he has been posting some very impressive strikeout totals lately. He's gone over six strikeouts in four of his last five starts.

Scott faces the Royals tonight. While these teams combined for 28 runs last night, I don't think we will see a repeat of that in tonight's game. The Royals' bats are heating up a bit, but they are still striking out at a high clip (25.5%) against RHP. Scott doesn't need to shut them down entirely; he just needs to get us those punch outs, and this matchup is one that favors him for strikeouts tonight.

Jake Bennett OVER 16.5 Outs Recorded (+104)

I've been really impressed with Bennett's control and poise as a rookie. He isn't a guy I want to bet on for strikeouts because he relies a lot on groundballs and pitching to contact. However, he's been really efficient, doesn't walk hitters, and has delivered quality innings for Boston just about every time he takes the mound.

He has settled into a nice groove, completing at least six innings in each of his last three starts. More specifically, he's recorded 18, 19, and 23 outs in those starts, easily clearing the bar that has been set for him today. The White Sox are a solid offense, but they are on the wrong side of their splits against lefties.

More Fantasy Baseball Advice