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Mark Kieffer's report on March Madness bubble teams as of 2/21/24. He analyzes recent CBB games, and predicts what is needed to secure NCAA tournament bids.
In college basketball, conference play is heating up, and March Madness is just over three weeks away. College basketball fans have started to turn their attention to teams that could comprise the field that the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee will choose on Sunday, March 17, 2024.
One of the most prominent metrics that the Selection Committee uses in determining the bracket is the NCAA's NET ranking. The NET ranking uses the strength of schedule, scoring margins, offensive and defensive efficiencies, and locations of the games to rank the 347 Division I teams that have participated in this NCAA college basketball season. Determining what quadrant a game falls into depends on the team's opponent's NET ranking.
- Quadrant 1: Home game opponent ranking 1-30, Neutral site 1-50, Away game 1-75
- Quadrant 2: Home game 31-75, Neutral site 51-100, Away game 76-135
- Quadrant 3: Home game 76-160, Neutral site 101-200, Away game 135-240
- Quadrant 4: Home game 161-353, Neutral site 201-353, Away game 241-353
Below is a list of teams that most experts consider on the bubble, their resumés, and what the upcoming week looks like for those teams. I am no bracketologist, so I am going off of the consensus based on several experts out there.
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New Mexico
Resume: 19-6 record, 3-3 vs. Q1, 1-2 vs. Q2, 15-1 vs. Q3 and Q4 teams. 24th in NET
New Mexico is currently one game behind Utah State in the loss column in the Mountain West and they have a chance to earn the top seed in the Mountain West tournament. If the season ended today, they would be in the tournament, but they will have work to do to be considered a "lock" in the tournament.
Weekly Outlook: vs. Colorado State (Q1), vs. Air Force (Q4). A huge game this week against CSU. Two wins this week would be great for them.
Status: Averaging a 9th or 10th Seed in most brackets
Nebraska
Resume: 18-8 record, 3-6 vs. Q1, 3-2 vs. Q2, 12-0 vs. Q3 and Q4 teams. 48th in NET.
Nebraska is a mixed bag. Wins over Michigan State, Purdue, and Wisconsin are great. Losses to Maryland and Iowa by the margins they had are not.
Weekly Outlook: at Indiana (Q2) and vs. Minnesota (Q3). This is not the week where they can bolster their resume, but it is a week where if they stumble, they can put their NCAA hopes in the balance. Fred Hoiberg and company have to take care of business this week.
Status: Some brackets have them as among the last four with a bye, others have them among the last four in. They are right on the edge. Most brackets have them as either a 10 or 11 seed.
Texas A&M
Resume: 15-10 record, 6-5 vs. Q1, 2-1 vs. Q2, 2-4 vs. Q3, and 5-0 vs. Q4 teams. 45th in NET.
Texas A&M is a team that has played their way onto the bubble recently. Wins over Florida and Tennessee in the last couple of weeks really gave them a chance. Other wins that are impressive were against Iowa State and Kentucky as well. Their loss last week at Vanderbilt was a bad loss. One can't sugarcoat it.
Weekly Outlook: vs. Arkansas (Q3), at Tennessee (Q1). This is a make-or-break week. It is highly unlikely they beat Tennessee again, especially with it being on the road.
Status: Some brackets have them among the last four with a bye, others have them among the last four in. 10 or 11 seed.
Nevada
Resume: 20-6 record, 5-4 vs. Q1, 1-1 vs. Q2, 5-1 vs. Q3, and 8-0 vs. Q4 teams. 43rd in NET.
Nevada's best wins are against Colorado State, San Diego State, and Utah State. Losing at Wyoming is a bad loss. They are middle of the back in the Mountain West; however, the Mountain West is a strong conference this year. A winning record vs. Q1 teams is good.
Weekly Outlook: vs. Wyoming (Q4) and at San Jose State (Q3). Nevada must win both of those or they could find themselves in trouble.
Status: Most brackets have them as last four with a bye and a 10 or 11 seed.
Butler
Resume: 16-10 record, 4-10 vs. Q1, 3-1 vs. Q2, 8-0 vs. Q3 and Q4 teams. 58th in NET.
Butler has a tough strength of schedule. In addition to playing UConn, Marquette, and Creighton twice each, they found themselves playing Michigan State, Florida Atlantic, and Texas Tech in their non-conference schedule.
Weekly Outlook: Lost at Villanova (Q1), at Seton Hall (Q1). They lost to Villanova and play Seton Hall later this week. A win there would be big for them.
Status: Last four in on most brackets, out of the tournament on other brackets. If in, an 11 seed is a play-in game. I would put them out of the tournament.
Gonzaga
Resume: 20-6 record, 1-5 vs. Q1, 2-1 vs. Q2, 16-0 vs. Q3 and Q4 teams. 23rd in NET
Gonzaga is an interesting team. According to NET, KenPom, etc., they are a top 20-25 team; however, their 1-5 record against Q1 teams stinks. Winning at Kentucky on February 10 was big for them and they are beating teams they are supposed to beat. Losing to St. Mary's at home was a blow as they now are two games behind them in the loss column with just one game left against them.
Weekly Outlook: at Portland (Q4), at Santa Clara (Q3). Nothing here helps them, and it can only hurt them if they lose.
Status: Most brackets have them last four in as an 11 seed. The WCC is weak; unless they win the WCC tournament, they are going to be sweating it out on Selection Sunday. The metrics indicate this should be a tournament team, but they have underperformed to those metrics and in my opinion should be out.
Seton Hall
Resume: 17-9 record, 5-5 vs. Q1, 2-2 vs. Q2, 2-2 vs. Q3, and 8-0 vs. Q4 teams. 63rd in NET
Seton Hall has some big wins over UConn and Marquette. Is that enough to carry them into the tournament despite their poor NET rating? It will be interesting to see where they land in a couple of weeks, but they also have some big conference games coming up.
Weekly Outlook: vs. Butler (Q2). This is a big one as Butler is on the bubble as well.
Status: Out of the tournament on most brackets, but ESPN has them as the last four in as an 11 seed. This is not a team I would put in the tournament until I saw more.
Ole Miss
Resume: 19-6 record, 3-5 vs. Q1, 2-1 vs. Q2, 14-0 vs. Q3 and Q4 teams. 65th in NET.
Ole Miss' biggest win is over Florida and they have been blown out by other Q1 teams. They are currently in a three-way tie for seventh place in the SEC.
Weekly Outlook: at Mississippi St. (Q1), vs. South Carolina (Q2). I am looking forward to seeing how they play against Mississippi State. That is a top-40 team in NET and a team that should be in the tournament.
Status: Most brackets have them as a last four in and an 11 seed. Their NET rating is the lowest among the teams listed so far. Is a win over Florida worth that much?
Providence
Resume: 17-9 record, 4-6 vs. Q1, 3-3 vs. Q2, 0-0 vs. Q3, and 10-0 vs. Q4 teams. 60th in NET
Wins over Marquette and Creighton are great. They are a middle-of-the-road Big East team overall and inconsistent. They need to pull off an upset or two to really have a chance.
Weekly Outlook: at Xavier (Q1). Just one game this week and an opportunity to strengthen their resume.
Status: First four out on most brackets. There are three Q1 games left on their schedule.
Utah
Resume: 16-10 record, 3-5 vs. Q1, 5-4 vs. Q2, 3-1 vs. Q3, and 5-0 vs. Q4 teams. 49th in NET
This is a team that most brackets have out, but I think deserves more consideration. The win at Saint Mary's is impressive, given Gonzaga lost to St. Mary's at home. They played tough against Houston and Arizona (3OT loss!). They beat BYU.
Weekly Outlook: at Colorado (Q1). Colorado is also a bubble team trying to get in.
Status: First four out on most brackets. There are two Q1 games left on their schedule. I'd have them out too, but they are closer to in than some of the teams that ESPN and other bracketologists have in.
Cincinnati
Resume: 16-9 record, 3-6 vs. Q1, 2-2 vs. Q2, 3-1 vs. Q3, and 8-0 vs. Q4 teams. 37th in NET
Cincinnati is playing in the tough Big 12 this year. They have good wins at BYU and at Texas Tech -- two hard places to win. Their losses in the Big 12 were by an average of 4.4 points -- including against teams like Kansas, Houston, and Iowa State.
Weekly Outlook: vs. Oklahoma St (Q3), at TCU (Q1).
Status: First four out. I would have them in. They need a signature win or a Big 12 tournament run most likely.
Wake Forest
Resume: 16-9 record, 1-6 vs. Q1, 4-3 vs. Q2, 11-0 vs. Q3 and Q4 teams. 40th in NET
They have one big win over Florida. They beat up on teams they are better than, but are lacking strong wins.
Weekly Outlook: vs. Pittsburgh (Q2), vs. Duke (Q1).
Status: Out on all brackets. Hard to disagree with a lack of big wins.
Colorado
Resume: 17-9 record, 1-5 vs. Q1, 6-4 vs. Q2, 10-0 vs. Q3 and Q4 teams. 41st in NET
This is a team I expected to be really good this year. With Washington as their only signature win, you know it's a disappointing year.
Weekly Outlook: vs. Utah (Q2).
Status: Out on all brackets. With mostly Q3 teams left on their schedule, they are going to need to make a Pac-12 tournament run. They have the talent to do it, but they have not been performing.
Villanova
Resume: 14-11 record, 3-6 vs. Q1, 6-2 vs. Q2, 2-3 vs. Q3, and 4-0 vs. Q4 teams. 35th in NET
Wins over Texas Tech, North Carolina, and Creighton are good. Losses to Penn, Drexel, and Saint Joseph's are not. Recent wins over potential bubble teams like Seton Hall, Providence, and Butler are good.
Weekly Outlook: They beat Butler last night, 72-62. At UConn on Saturday.
Status: Out of the tournament, but they have four Q1 games remaining with an opportunity to strengthen their resume. The Butler win was good for them this week, but they are still out.
St. John's
Resume: 14-12 record, 2-9 vs. Q1, 5-2 vs. Q2, 2-1 vs. Q3, and 5-0 vs. Q4 teams. 51st in NET
Wins over Utah and Villanova are their Q1 wins. Considering those are bubble teams, it's not a good resume. Plus Rick Pitino is not having fun as they have lost five of their last six games.
Weekly Outlook: at Georgetown (Q3), vs. Creighton (Q1).
Status: Out of the tournament. No signature wins and playing badly. I am surprised ESPN has them in the next four out.
Pittsburgh
Resume: 17-8 record, 3-4 vs. Q1, 1-2 vs. Q2, 5-2 vs. Q3, and 8-0 vs. Q4 teams. 47th in NET
Winning at Duke is a signature win. Losing to Missouri and Syracuse at home was bad. They have only lost one game in the past month and are playing their best ball of the year, though.
Weekly Outlook: at Wake Forest (Q1), vs. VA Tech (Q2).
Status: Out of the tournament. With mostly Q2 games the rest of the way and the loss at Wake Forest this week, they will need to make noise in the ACC tournament most likely to have a chance to get in.
Stay tuned for our weekly update on the bubble each week before Selection Sunday.
