X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Projections
Articles & Tools
Weekly Planner
24x7 News and Alerts

March Madness Bubble Report For February 21, 2024

NCAA Tournament - March Madness College Basketball

Mark Kieffer's report on March Madness bubble teams as of 2/21/24. He analyzes recent CBB games, and predicts what is needed to secure NCAA tournament bids.

In college basketball, conference play is heating up, and March Madness is just over three weeks away. College basketball fans have started to turn their attention to teams that could comprise the field that the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee will choose on Sunday, March 17, 2024.

One of the most prominent metrics that the Selection Committee uses in determining the bracket is the NCAA's NET ranking. The NET ranking uses the strength of schedule, scoring margins, offensive and defensive efficiencies, and locations of the games to rank the 347 Division I teams that have participated in this NCAA college basketball season. Determining what quadrant a game falls into depends on the team's opponent's NET ranking.

  • Quadrant 1: Home game opponent ranking 1-30, Neutral site 1-50, Away game 1-75
  • Quadrant 2: Home game 31-75, Neutral site 51-100, Away game 76-135
  • Quadrant 3: Home game 76-160, Neutral site 101-200, Away game 135-240
  • Quadrant 4: Home game 161-353, Neutral site 201-353, Away game 241-353

Below is a list of teams that most experts consider on the bubble, their resumés, and what the upcoming week looks like for those teams.  I am no bracketologist, so I am going off of the consensus based on several experts out there.

Featured Promo: Get any DFS Premium Bundle for for 30% off using code WIN! Win more with expert advice from proven winners and exclusive DFS tools. Get instant access to RotoBaller's Lineup Optimizers, Research Stations, daily picks and VIP chat rooms across 10 sports! Go Premium, Win More!

 

New Mexico
Resume: 19-6 record, 3-3 vs. Q1, 1-2 vs. Q2, 15-1 vs. Q3 and Q4 teams. 24th in NET

New Mexico is currently one game behind Utah State in the loss column in the Mountain West and they have a chance to earn the top seed in the Mountain West tournament. If the season ended today, they would be in the tournament, but they will have work to do to be considered a "lock" in the tournament.

Weekly Outlook: vs. Colorado State (Q1), vs. Air Force (Q4). A huge game this week against CSU. Two wins this week would be great for them.

Status: Averaging a 9th or 10th Seed in most brackets 

 

Nebraska

Resume: 18-8 record, 3-6 vs. Q1, 3-2 vs. Q2, 12-0 vs. Q3 and Q4 teams. 48th in NET.

Nebraska is a mixed bag. Wins over Michigan State, Purdue, and Wisconsin are great. Losses to Maryland and Iowa by the margins they had are not.

Weekly Outlook: at Indiana (Q2) and vs. Minnesota (Q3). This is not the week where they can bolster their resume, but it is a week where if they stumble, they can put their NCAA hopes in the balance. Fred Hoiberg and company have to take care of business this week.

Status: Some brackets have them as among the last four with a bye, others have them among the last four in. They are right on the edge. Most brackets have them as either a 10 or 11 seed.

 

Texas A&M

Resume: 15-10 record, 6-5 vs. Q1, 2-1 vs. Q2, 2-4 vs. Q3, and 5-0 vs. Q4 teams. 45th in NET.

Texas A&M is a team that has played their way onto the bubble recently. Wins over Florida and Tennessee in the last couple of weeks really gave them a chance. Other wins that are impressive were against Iowa State and Kentucky as well. Their loss last week at Vanderbilt was a bad loss. One can't sugarcoat it.

Weekly Outlook: vs. Arkansas (Q3), at Tennessee (Q1). This is a make-or-break week. It is highly unlikely they beat Tennessee again, especially with it being on the road.

Status: Some brackets have them among the last four with a bye, others have them among the last four in. 10 or 11 seed.

 

Nevada

Resume: 20-6 record, 5-4 vs. Q1, 1-1 vs. Q2, 5-1 vs. Q3, and 8-0 vs. Q4 teams. 43rd in NET.

Nevada's best wins are against Colorado State, San Diego State, and Utah State. Losing at Wyoming is a bad loss. They are middle of the back in the Mountain West; however, the Mountain West is a strong conference this year. A winning record vs. Q1 teams is good.

Weekly Outlook: vs. Wyoming (Q4) and at San Jose State (Q3). Nevada must win both of those or they could find themselves in trouble.

Status: Most brackets have them as last four with a bye and a 10 or 11 seed.

 

Butler

Resume: 16-10 record, 4-10 vs. Q1, 3-1 vs. Q2, 8-0 vs. Q3 and Q4 teams. 58th in NET.

Butler has a tough strength of schedule. In addition to playing UConn, Marquette, and Creighton twice each, they found themselves playing Michigan State, Florida Atlantic, and Texas Tech in their non-conference schedule.

Weekly Outlook: Lost at Villanova (Q1), at Seton Hall (Q1). They lost to Villanova and play Seton Hall later this week. A win there would be big for them.

Status: Last four in on most brackets, out of the tournament on other brackets. If in, an 11 seed is a play-in game. I would put them out of the tournament. 

 

Gonzaga

Resume: 20-6 record, 1-5 vs. Q1, 2-1 vs. Q2, 16-0 vs. Q3 and Q4 teams. 23rd in NET

Gonzaga is an interesting team. According to NET, KenPom, etc., they are a top 20-25 team; however, their 1-5 record against Q1 teams stinks. Winning at Kentucky on February 10 was big for them and they are beating teams they are supposed to beat. Losing to St. Mary's at home was a blow as they now are two games behind them in the loss column with just one game left against them.

Weekly Outlook: at Portland (Q4), at Santa Clara (Q3). Nothing here helps them, and it can only hurt them if they lose.

Status: Most brackets have them last four in as an 11 seed. The WCC is weak; unless they win the WCC tournament, they are going to be sweating it out on Selection Sunday. The metrics indicate this should be a tournament team, but they have underperformed to those metrics and in my opinion should be out.

 

Seton Hall

Resume: 17-9 record, 5-5 vs. Q1, 2-2 vs. Q2, 2-2 vs. Q3, and 8-0 vs. Q4 teams. 63rd in NET

Seton Hall has some big wins over UConn and Marquette. Is that enough to carry them into the tournament despite their poor NET rating? It will be interesting to see where they land in a couple of weeks, but they also have some big conference games coming up.

Weekly Outlook: vs. Butler (Q2). This is a big one as Butler is on the bubble as well.

Status: Out of the tournament on most brackets, but ESPN has them as the last four in as an 11 seed. This is not a team I would put in the tournament until I saw more.

 

Ole Miss

Resume: 19-6 record, 3-5 vs. Q1, 2-1 vs. Q2, 14-0 vs. Q3 and Q4 teams. 65th in NET.

Ole Miss' biggest win is over Florida and they have been blown out by other Q1 teams. They are currently in a three-way tie for seventh place in the SEC.

Weekly Outlook: at Mississippi St. (Q1), vs. South Carolina (Q2). I am looking forward to seeing how they play against Mississippi State. That is a top-40 team in NET and a team that should be in the tournament.

Status: Most brackets have them as a last four in and an 11 seed. Their NET rating is the lowest among the teams listed so far. Is a win over Florida worth that much? 

 

Providence

Resume: 17-9 record, 4-6 vs. Q1, 3-3 vs. Q2, 0-0 vs. Q3, and 10-0 vs. Q4 teams. 60th in NET

Wins over Marquette and Creighton are great. They are a middle-of-the-road Big East team overall and inconsistent. They need to pull off an upset or two to really have a chance.

Weekly Outlook: at Xavier (Q1). Just one game this week and an opportunity to strengthen their resume.

Status: First four out on most brackets. There are three Q1 games left on their schedule.

 

Utah

Resume: 16-10 record, 3-5 vs. Q1, 5-4 vs. Q2, 3-1 vs. Q3, and 5-0 vs. Q4 teams. 49th in NET

This is a team that most brackets have out, but I think deserves more consideration. The win at Saint Mary's is impressive, given Gonzaga lost to St. Mary's at home. They played tough against Houston and Arizona (3OT loss!). They beat BYU.

Weekly Outlook: at Colorado (Q1). Colorado is also a bubble team trying to get in.

Status: First four out on most brackets. There are two Q1 games left on their schedule. I'd have them out too, but they are closer to in than some of the teams that ESPN and other bracketologists have in. 

 

Cincinnati

Resume: 16-9 record, 3-6 vs. Q1, 2-2 vs. Q2, 3-1 vs. Q3, and 8-0 vs. Q4 teams. 37th in NET

Cincinnati is playing in the tough Big 12 this year. They have good wins at BYU and at Texas Tech -- two hard places to win.  Their losses in the Big 12 were by an average of 4.4 points -- including against teams like Kansas, Houston, and Iowa State.

Weekly Outlook: vs. Oklahoma St (Q3), at TCU (Q1).

Status: First four out. I would have them in. They need a signature win or a Big 12 tournament run most likely. 

 

Wake Forest

Resume: 16-9 record, 1-6 vs. Q1, 4-3 vs. Q2, 11-0 vs. Q3 and Q4 teams. 40th in NET

They have one big win over Florida. They beat up on teams they are better than, but are lacking strong wins.

Weekly Outlook: vs. Pittsburgh (Q2), vs. Duke (Q1).

Status: Out on all brackets. Hard to disagree with a lack of big wins. 

 

Colorado

Resume: 17-9 record, 1-5 vs. Q1, 6-4 vs. Q2, 10-0 vs. Q3 and Q4 teams. 41st in NET

This is a team I expected to be really good this year. With Washington as their only signature win, you know it's a disappointing year.

Weekly Outlook: vs. Utah (Q2).

Status: Out on all brackets. With mostly Q3 teams left on their schedule, they are going to need to make a Pac-12 tournament run. They have the talent to do it, but they have not been performing. 

 

Villanova

Resume: 14-11 record, 3-6 vs. Q1, 6-2 vs. Q2, 2-3 vs. Q3, and 4-0 vs. Q4 teams. 35th in NET

Wins over Texas Tech, North Carolina, and Creighton are good. Losses to Penn, Drexel, and Saint Joseph's are not. Recent wins over potential bubble teams like Seton Hall, Providence, and Butler are good.

Weekly Outlook: They beat Butler last night, 72-62. At UConn on Saturday.

Status: Out of the tournament, but they have four Q1 games remaining with an opportunity to strengthen their resume. The Butler win was good for them this week, but they are still out.

 

St. John's

Resume: 14-12 record, 2-9 vs. Q1, 5-2 vs. Q2, 2-1 vs. Q3, and 5-0 vs. Q4 teams. 51st in NET

Wins over Utah and Villanova are their Q1 wins. Considering those are bubble teams, it's not a good resume. Plus Rick Pitino is not having fun as they have lost five of their last six games.

Weekly Outlook: at Georgetown (Q3), vs. Creighton (Q1).

Status: Out of the tournament. No signature wins and playing badly. I am surprised ESPN has them in the next four out. 

 

Pittsburgh

Resume: 17-8 record, 3-4 vs. Q1, 1-2 vs. Q2, 5-2 vs. Q3, and 8-0 vs. Q4 teams. 47th in NET

Winning at Duke is a signature win. Losing to Missouri and Syracuse at home was bad. They have only lost one game in the past month and are playing their best ball of the year, though.

Weekly Outlook: at Wake Forest (Q1), vs. VA Tech (Q2).

Status: Out of the tournament. With mostly Q2 games the rest of the way and the loss at Wake Forest this week, they will need to make noise in the ACC tournament most likely to have a chance to get in.

Stay tuned for our weekly update on the bubble each week before Selection Sunday.

More Fantasy Basketball Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Projections
Articles & Tools
Weekly Planner
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Simon Edvinsson

to Miss a Couple of Weeks
Mikael Backlund

Signs Two-Year Extension
Connor Ingram

to Be Waived by Mammoth
Zach Hyman

Misses Start of Training Camp
Nick Paul

Out Until November
Kris Letang

Cleared for Training Camp
David Pastrnak

Out for Start of Training Camp
Matthew Tkachuk

Expected to Be Out Until December
NBA

Trevelin Queen Joins Chinese Team
Damian Lillard

Not Rushing His Return
NBA

Keon Johnson Waived by Nets
Justin Verlander

Plans to Pitch in 2026
Junior Caminero

Day-to-Day With Back Tightness
Will Smith

Won't Return When First Eligible
Tyler Soderstrom

Returns to A's Lineup
Tyler Warren

Sidelined on Wednesday with Toe Injury
Jaylen Waddle

Questionable for Week 3 Against Buffalo
Joe Burrow

Bengals Not Closing the Door on Joe Burrow Returning This Year
CFB

LaNorris Sellers to Play Against Missouri?
Kyle Tucker

Progress has "Plateaued"
Isaac Paredes

has "Outside Chance" to Return This Weekend
CFB

Kaidon Salter Expected To Start for Colorado on Saturday
Willson Contreras

Goes on 10-Day Injured List, Done for Season
Justin Fields

Ruled Out for Week 3 Due to Concussion
Jayden Reed

Out Indefinitely After Foot and Shoulder Surgery
Washington Commanders

Preston Smith Signs With Commanders
Trey Jemison III

Joins Knicks on Two-Way Contract
Kevin McCullar Jr.

Signs New Two-Way Deal With Knicks
Matt Ryan

Returns to Knicks on Exhibit 10 Contract
New York Knicks

Alex Len Signs Exhibit 9 Deal With Knicks
Nickeil Alexander-Walker

Expected to Take on Larger Offensive Role With Hawks
Thomas Sorber

Undergoes Surgery
Dominic Canzone

Has Five-Hit, Three-Homer Game Tuesday
Cal Raleigh

Sets Single-Season Home Run Record for a Switch-Hitter
Jayden Reed

Undergoes Clavicle and Foot Surgeries, Out for Foreseeable Future
Bo Bichette

to Miss Rest of Regular Season
Zach Neto

Placed on 10-Day Injured List With Hand Injury
Yordan Alvarez

Out on Tuesday, Dealing With "Significant" Ankle Sprain
Aaron Jones Sr.

Vikings Place Aaron Jones Sr. on Injured Reserve With Hamstring Injury
CFB

Diego Pavia Refutes Report of Seeking Seventh Collegiate Season
Christian Kirk

Expected to Return in Week 3
CFB

Diego Pavia Seeking Another Year of Eligibility
Tarik Skubal

on Track to Start Thursday
CFB

Kevorian Barnes Questionable Against SMU
Bo Bichette

has Short-Term Knee Injury, Could Return for Postseason
Tosan Evbuomwan

Joins Knicks
NBA

Kai Jones Links Up With EuroLeague Team
Bismack Biyombo

Returns to Spurs
Bones Hyland

Rejoins Timberwolves
Kobe Bufkin

Moves to Brooklyn
Trey Yesavage

Sets Franchise Strikeout Record On Monday
Yordan Alvarez

To Receive MRI For Sprained Left Ankle On Tuesday
Willson Contreras

Exits Early Monday With Right-Biceps Tightness
Yordan Alvarez

Exits With Ankle Sprain
Brock Bowers

Officially Active on Monday Night
Jauan Jennings

Day-to-Day With Ankle Injury
Logan O'Hoppe

Activated Off Seven-Day Injured List
CBJ

Denton Mateychuk Dealing With Groin Issue
Bo Horvat

Fine for Training Camp
Kirby Dach

on Track to Be Ready for Opening Night
Jose Altuve

Returns Against Rangers
J.J. McCarthy

Expected to Miss 2-4 Weeks With High-Ankle Sprain
J.J. McCarthy

Likely Out for Week 3 With High-Ankle Sprain
Jean Silva

Gets Finished For The First Time In His Career
Aaron Jones Sr.

Unlikely to Play in Week 3 Due to Hamstring Injury
Diego Lopes

Returns To The Win Column
Jayden Daniels

' Week 3 Status in Doubt
Rob Font

Outclassed In The Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
David Martinez

Wins His Second UFC Fight
Jared Gordon

Suffers Brutal TKO Loss At Noche UFC 3
Rafa Garcia

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Brian Thomas Jr.

Dealing with Wrist Injury
Dustin Stoltzfus

Drops A Decision At Noche UFC 3
Kelvin Gastelum

Gets Back In The Win Column
Diego Ferreira

Suffers Second-Round TKO
Alexander Hernandez

Extends His Win Streak With A Brutal TKO
Quang Le

Suffers First-Round Knockout
Santiago Luna

Shines In His UFC Debut
Christopher Bell

Earns his First Bristol Cup Series Victory
Alex Bowman

Falls Short of Advancing Through Cup Series Playoffs
Chase Briscoe

Collects his Third Top-10 Finish at Bristol
Ryan Blaney

Strong Top-Five Bristol Performance Advances him to the Playoffs
Corey Heim

Earns his First Career Cup Series Top-10 Finish at Bristol
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Leads Greece to Bronze Medal
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Drops 28 Points in EuroBasket Finals
CFB

Indiana's Lee Beebe Jr. Out for Season with Knee Injury
Dennis Schröder

Dennis Schroder Named EuroBasket MVP
Bryce Eldridge

Giants to Promote Bryce Eldridge
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Progressing in Recovery
Jonathan Kuminga

Receives New Offer From Warriors
Kenneth Walker III

Bounces Back with Big Week 2 Performance
Bijan Robinson

Rushes for 143 Yards in Week 2
Justin Fields

Currently in Concussion Protocol
Cincinnati Bengals

Bengals Calling Around to Available Free-Agent Quarterbacks
Joe Burrow

to Undergo Surgery, Out at Least Three Months
Emil Heineman

Aiming to Take the "Next Step" This Season
Braeden Cootes

Good to Go for Camp
Ivan Fedotov

Blue Jackets Acquire Ivan Fedotov From Flyers
Quentin Grimes

Still Not Close to a New Contract Agreement
Joel Embiid

"Looking Slender, Spry and in Positive Spirits"
Ty Gibbs

Has Arguably his Best Career Drive, but Only Finishes 10th
Chase Elliott

Despite Crashing Out at Bristol, Chase Elliott Advances to Round of 12
Austin Dillon

Misses Round of 12 After Extremely Mediocre Bristol Run
Shane Van Gisbergen

Shane van Gisbergen Fails to Advance to Round of 12
Josh Berry

Finishes Last in All Three Round of 16 Races to Fail to Advance
CFB

Ryan Williams Explodes In Return To Field
CFB

Drew Allar Plays Mediocre Game In Blowout Win
CFB

LaNorris Sellers Exits Game In Blowout Loss
CFB

DJ Lagway Tosses Five Interceptions In Loss
CFB

Garrett Nussmeier Plays Game Manager in Saturday's Win
CFB

CJ Carr Remains Poised In Narrow Loss
CFB

John Mateer Leads Oklahoma In Rout
CFB

Arch Manning Struggles Against UTEP
CFB

Jeremiah Smith Impresses In Win
CFB

Sam Leavitt Shines As Arizona State Rebounds From Week 2 Loss
Ivan Demidov

Turning Heads in Rookie Camp
NHL

Calvin de Haan Signs With Swedish Team
Samuel Girard

Skates With Non-Contact Jersey
Mackenzie Blackwood

Dealing With Injury Ahead of Training Camp
Spencer Knight

Signs Three-Year Extension With Blackhawks
Chris Buescher

May have Another Solid Run at Bristol
Corey Perry

Out 6-8 Weeks Following Surgery
Kyle Busch

Should DFS Managers Roster Kyle Busch at Bristol?
Ricky Stenhouse Jr

Is Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Too Risky to Consider Rostering at Bristol?
Michael McDowell

Could be A Solid Value Option For Bristol DFS Lineups
Chase Elliott

Probably Won't Factor in for Bristol Win
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Not as Strong at Bristol as Other Short Tracks
Alex Bowman

Needs to Win to Make Round of 12
Ross Chastain

has Never Led at Bristol but Has Been Pretty Consistent
Austin Dillon

Richmond Speed Unlikely to Carry Over to Bristol
Josh Berry

Might Run Well at Bristol, but Almost Certainly Won't Win to Advance
Justin Haley

Bristol One of Justin Haley's Few Recent Bright Spots
CFB

Austin Simmons Listed As Game-Time Decision Against Arkansas
CFB

Nico Iamaleava Struggles In Fourth Straight Loss
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

Dealing With a "Tweak"
CFB

Antonio Williams Out Against Georgia Tech
CFB

CJ Bailey Flashes Again in Win Over Wake Forest
CFB

Jaxson Moi a Game-Time Decision for Tennessee on Saturday
Jean Silva

A Favorite At Noche UFC 3
Diego Lopes

Set For Noche UFC 3 Main Event
Rob Font

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
David Martinez

Set For Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
Rafa Garcia

An Underdog At Noche UFC 3
Jared Gordon

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Dustin Stoltzfus

Looks To Return To The Win Column
Kelvin Gastelum

In Dire Need Of Victory
Diego Ferreira

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP