LIV Golf Betting Picks - 2024 Las Vegas

February 6, 2024

Matt Miller's LIV golf betting picks and betting strategies for 2024 Las Vegas event at Las Vegas Country Club. He digs into the LIV golf betting lines to find the best bets and top values.

The LIV Golf League will hold this week’s event at Las Vegas Country Club in Las Vegas, Nevada. LIV is coming off arguably their biggest week to date, as Joaquin Niemann defeated Sergio Garcia in the dark on the fourth playoff hole in Mexico. The PGA was forced to cancel the final round of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am due to weather, leaving all eyes on LIV for its historic finish.

LIV has also strategically aligned this week’s event with the Super Bowl, which will be held Sunday at Allegiant Stadium, a mere 15-minute drive away from Las Vegas Country Club. I would expect a good attendance at the event, filled with a rowdy crowd who is enjoying their time in Sin City before the game on Sunday. Given the large number of big names who will be in town for the Super Bowl, I expect LIV to pull out every stop to promote their tournament and get people to the event.

The event will be played Thursday-Saturday and will air on the CW Network in 100% of U.S. markets, as well as the CW App and LIV Golf Plus. Globally, the event will be broadcasted in over 160 international territories Live and On-Demand, free of charge, via LIV Golf Plus.

LIV Golf Las Vegas Course Breakdown

Below is the official Round 1 scorecard provided by LIV Golf.

Las Vegas Country Club was designed in 1967 by Edmund B. Ault, renovated in 1981 by Ron Garl, and then modernized by Mark Rathert in 2009. The club received notoriety in the early days because of some big public figures who frequented the venue. Dean Martin was one of the most notable, playing the course so often that there is now a statue of him located on-site. The club hosted the Las Vegas Invitational between 1983 and 1991, and the LPGA Takefuji Classic from 2003-2006. The course is located just minutes from the Las Vegas Strip and several hotels on the strip are featured as backdrops along the course.

This week, the course will play as a 7089-yard par-70. Las Vegas Country Club features tree lined-fairways, several lakes, and heavy bunkering throughout. The two par-5s are both reachable to the field in two, the longest being just 571 yards. In the desert altitude, even the shortest hitters should have no problem getting there, provided they hit a good tee shot. The par-4s are pretty spread out in terms of distance, one falling under 400 yards, six between 400-450 yards, and five of 450+ yards.

With no real course history data to go off, it is always difficult to predict exactly how an event will play. However, given the layout of the course, I am putting more emphasis on accuracy off the tee than distance this week. Players will need to position themselves properly off the tee, or they risk being blocked out by the tree line in some cases on their second shot, leaving no angle at the green. While longer hitters will have shorter clubs into the two par-5s, the shorter hitters will still be able to reach both, mitigating any clear advantage of distance off the tee.

While I don’t anticipate water really coming into play on more than three holes, there is a heavy array of greenside bunkering that players will want to avoid. My opinion on the setup of the course is that birdies will be out there as long as players avoid missing in the wrong spots off the tee. Fairway percentage is a LIV stat that we have, and one that I will be using this week when considering my selections. The downside of relying too heavily on that stat is the distance and setup of the course is going to allow a lot of players to club down off the tee. I’m profiling this course as positional but extremely scorable, and will try to pick players who fit that profile.

LIV Golf Betting Odds - Las Vegas

Below are the current odds to win, as presented by BetUS. Odds on different sportsbooks are subject to change.

LIV Golf Betting Strategy & Selections - Las Vegas

This week, I am looking for players who fit the profile of the course that I have described above. I want players who are going to position themselves well off the tee by hitting fairways. I am also going to take a hard look at past performances in Las Vegas to see if any players historically play well in this geographic area.

Talor Gooch +1800

From a win equity standpoint alone, this feels like great value for the defending Individual LIV Champion and a guy who has won three of his last 11 league starts. Gooch finished a modest T15 last week in his 2024 and Smash debut, but did shoot back-to-back rounds in the 60s over the weekend after an over-par opening round. This past weekend was Gooch’s first competitive tournament since November, so it was expected that he would have some rust shake off.

Good week to knock a little rust off 👊🏼 Good things coming. Vegas next @SmashGC pic.twitter.com/D4ZmqZnnOT

— Talor Gooch (@TalorGooch) February 5, 2024

From a course fit perspective, Gooch has what I’m looking for. He finished T4 last week in fairways hit and had a strong 2023 in that statistical category as well. Distance wise, this course plays just under 7,100 yards, a shorter course compared to other LIV tracks. Two of Gooch’s three individual wins last season came on similar length courses. Valderrama played just over 7,000 yards for the week and The Grange Golf Club in Australia played just under 7,000. Gooch may be a short course killer.

Then we look at his geographical track record in the state. In four starts at TPC Summerlin, Gooch has two top-16 finishes, including an 11^th in his last appearance there on the PGA Tour. In his lone start at Shadow Creek in Vegas, Gooch finished fifth. In his only start at the Summit Club, Gooch also finished fifth. All stars seem to be aligning for Talor this week.

Abraham Ancer +3300

It was a home letdown for Ancer last week in Mexico, finishing a disappointing T28. However, when you dive deeper into the stats -- the result was a lot worse than it should have been. Ancer finished the week T7 in fairways hit and T13 in greens in regulation. He just didn’t make anything with the putter, finishing in the bottom 10 in the field in total putts. The good news is that historically speaking, putting is the most volatile stat of all, and can flip at any time.

Just a special moment between @abrahamancer and his first ever golf coach. Brought me into tears 🥹#LIVGolf #FireballsGC pic.twitter.com/at02EKbDgd

— Fireballs GC (@fireballsgc_) February 3, 2024

I think heading to Las Vegas will be good for Abe, and not just because he has an up-and-coming tequila company, Flecha Azul Tequila. Ancer was peppered with media attention last week being one of the signature players at the event in Mexico, a role he typically isn’t used to being in. He’ll surely be flying more under-the-radar this week and getting to focus more on his game. The 32-year-old has a pretty good track record in the state, finishing fourth twice at TPC Summerlin, 14^th at the Summit Club, and 28^th at Shadow Creek in his days on the PGA Tour.

Paul Casey +5500

Paul Casey flew somewhat under the radar last week with a T11 finish. He wasn’t heavily featured on the broadcast and never really sniffed contention. As a result, we’re getting a bit of a steal on his number this week. Casey was 14^th last week in fairways hit and fourth in greens in regulation. He was just completely let down by his putter, ranking 45^th on the week in total putts.

Starting the season off steady ✌️ pic.twitter.com/Sd8jukZWbB

— Crushers GC (@Crushers_GC) February 5, 2024

T11 while failing to do anything with the putter is too intriguing to pass on. If Casey was just middle of the pack with his putter last week, we’re looking at close to a top-five finish and his odds being slashed in half for this week. Buy the dip, especially when the ball striking is there.

Phil Mickelson +30000

There is no legitimate statistical reason to bet Phil Mickelson this week. That said, there was no reason that Mickelson should have finished second at the Masters last year after shooting a combined even-par through three LIV events heading in, failing to finish inside the top half of the leaderboard in any of the three. There was no reason to think that he would have won the PGA Championship in 2021 after failing to produce one top-20 finish on the PGA Tour for nearly a year leading up to the event.

Every once in a while, Mickelson just defies all odds and pulls a crazy finish out of nowhere. Does he have one left in the tank? Most likely not. But if he does, why wouldn’t it be Super Bowl weekend in Las Vegas with a bunch of celebrities in town? At 300-1, why the heck not toss a Hail Mary.

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