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Is Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliott Worth a Top-Five Pick in Fantasy Drafts?

Whether or not the Dallas Cowboys addressed their greatest need, by selecting Ohio State running back Ezekiel Elliott with the No. 4 overall pick in the 2016 NFL draft, is up for debate.

What isn't up for debate, however, is whether or not Elliott landed in one of the best possible situations for his fantasy stock in 2016. He did.

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A Deeper Dive into Ezekiel Elliott

The Cowboys boast one of the premier offensive lines in the NFL, led by a trio of Pro Bowlers, left tackle Tyron Smith, center Travis Frederick and right guard Zack Martin. Left guard La'el Collins was a first-round talent that went undrafted in 2015 due to legal concerns, and veteran right tackle Doug Free has been a mainstay for nearly 10 seasons.

It was behind this impressive line that DeMarco Murray, now with his second team in as many years since leaving Dallas a free agent, led the NFL and set a franchise single-season record with 1,845 rushing yards and tying for the league lead with 13 rushing touchdowns in 2014. The system and scheme that helped lead to Murray's career year is still in place for Elliott to make an immediate impact in his rookie season.

Despite the departure of Murray and injuries that limited quarterback Tony Romo to just four games in 2015, the Cowboys still finished ninth in the league in rushing with 1,890 yards. In a season in which they finished 4-12 and were trailing in most games they played, that's no small feat.

Elliott steps into an above-average Cowboys offense that lends itself to a workhorse back. Does that mean Elliott automatically becomes a top-five pick in fantasy drafts? Well, no. Let's take a look at some of the issues that could potentially hold him back.

 

Competition

Sure, the 20-year-old former Ohio State standout is the presumptive favorite to earn the majority of the carries out of Dallas' backfield. But there are some other backs that might have something to say about that.

Darren McFadden rushed for 1,089 yards last season, fourth most in the league and one of just seven players to eclipse the 1,000-yard mark. He also added 328 yards on 40 receptions. McFadden was actually quite valuable last season, finishing 12th overall among running backs in fantasy points on Fleaflicker.

Prior to the draft, the Cowboys re-signed pass-catching back Lance Dunbar, who was on pace for more than 80 receptions before suffering a major knee injury in Week 4, they also added veteran Alfred Morris as a free agent from their division rival, the Washington Redskins. Morris had just 751 yards on the ground last season, but topped the 1,000-yard mark in each of the three previous seasons.

That's a lot of mouths to feed in one backfield, and some kind of committee approach would immediately become one of the most frustrating fantasy situations in the league. Don't count on that, though. As long as Elliott stays healthy and productive, he should keep the others on the sideline.

 

Rookie production

Trusting a rookie in fantasy football is always a dicey proposition. In order to trust a rookie with one of the first five picks in your fantasy league's draft, you have to have to have major confidence in the players abilities as well as their situation.

We've seen rookies have immediate fantasy impacts in recent seasons, and last year was no different. Ten rookies finished among the top 50 overall in fantasy points for running backs on Fleaflicker. Todd Gurley (No. 6) and David Johnson (No. 7) were among the top backs, while Jeremy Langford (22), Thomas Rawls (23), T.J. Yeldon (26), Karlos Williams (32), Javorius Allen (35), Duke Johnson (36), Matt Jones (41) and Ameer Abdullah (44) all were starter-quality at various points in the season.

In the NFL, the best players play, whether they're rookies or 15-year veterans. Elliott is the best back on the Cowboys' roster and I expect him to get a bulk of the touches in that backfield.

 

History

Elliott is just the seventh running back to be selected in the top five of the NFL draft since 2000, joining Trent Richardson (No. 3, 2012), McFadden (No. 4, 2008), Reggie Bush (No. 2, 2006), Ronnie Brown (No. 2, 2005), LaDainian Tomlinson (No. 5, 2001) and Jamal Lewis (No. 5, 2000).

That's certainly a mixed bag from a career perspective, but we're not evaluating Elliott for the long term (though he makes for an appealing dynasty option). We want to know if he's worth a top-five fantasy pick for only this season.

Of the six other backs taken in the top five since 2000, only Tomlinson and Lewis eclipsed 1,000 yards in their rookie seasons. Only Richardson and Tomlinson scored at least 10 total touchdowns. History, it would appear, is working against Elliott.

Of course, the best counterpoint to the three areas of concern above is simple -- position scarcity. Generally, Adrian Peterson, Gurley and Le'Veon Bell are considered the top three backs entering the 2016 season. The order might vary based on preference or point system, but that's the consensus top trio.

After that? Well, it gets dicey. Devonta Freeman, last season's top back on Fleaflicker, is in the mix, as are David Johnson and Doug Martin. But are they better options than Elliott? Considering that McFadden was a top-12 back on a poor Cowboys team last season, it seems that the upside for Elliott is higher than Johnson, Martin and perhaps even Freeman.

That puts him behind the main three of Peterson, Gurley and Bell, and thus, settles this argument (for now, at least) -- Ezekiel Elliott is worthy of a top-five overall pick in redraft leagues.

 

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