RADIO
Collin Morikawa won the ZOZO Championship and then instantly lost this week's social media cycle, claiming that being part of the TGL (Technology Based Golf League) is almost as meaningful to him as being part of the Ryder Cup team. Now, he did get waxed 4&3 in his singles match this year, so maybe we are blowing how much the Ryder Cup means to him a little out of proportion. I kid, but also, what on earth are we doing here, Collin?
We head to a new course in Mexico as LIV golf hi-jacked El Cameleon Resort and now the PGA Tour heads to El Cardonal at Diamante, a course with wide open fairways, HUGE greens and very little to defend the PGA professionals from sniffing around -30 if the wind doesn't pick up. We have a fully fledged, resort-style birdie fest on our hands which leads us to want to lean towards a few more long shots than investing in one of the favorites sub 20-1.
For those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver," all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.
Outrights ($20)
We putt all our outright eggs in one basket at the ZOZO and Xander's abysmal showing over the weekend left us with Japanese egg all over our face. Time for redemption in Mexico. With such a deep outright card, it doesn't make much sense to bet T5 markets this week as the odds for our golfers suck and we barely make our money back if one of them finishes T5. Would need two inside the top 5 to profit in that market, which we are hoping for, but does not seem likely.
Emiliano Grillo 35-1 (Caesars)
We are starting off our card with Grillo, who the market is not quite that sure about. There are 22-1 lines on the Argentine at multiple books, while DK and Caesars have 13 points more on their sites. Grillo should be used to the tropical conditions he will find himself in this week and after a T10 at the ZOZO, it appears that the two missed cuts he started off the fall swing with, can be ignored. He seemed to have found the recipe for success on the greens at the Players Championship, scorching the putting surfaces after the Florida swing, only to forget how to putt in the fall swing.
If we resort back to his baseline, nobody in this field gains more strokes on approach from 150-200, than Emiliano Grillo. We can expect about 40% of approach shots to come from that range if each hole averages a 300-yard drive. Hopefully the momentum his irons generate from comfortable proximity ranges can spur him on with the putter and the rest of his game. Go get em, G!
Luke List 40-1
Luke list ranks inside the top-20 in SG Putting in this field and has finished T18, WIN, T25 in his three fall swing starts, gaining putting in four of his last six events. His length off the tee and renewed putter should see him really enjoy the layout of this new venue. The form is there, the putter is seemingly no longer debilitating and a 40-1 price tag could not be more appealing for a recent winner.
Akshay Bhatia 40-1
With his iron play in utter turmoil this fall swing, we are banking on the tropical, resort vibes to get Akshay's game back into shape. There really is not much to write home about other than the fact that his comp course history which looks amazing heading to Mexico. Usually we require a little more statistical back bone to a bet, but this is a full on Maniac play, which a large majority of the betting community shares this week.
- Mexico Open: 4th
- Corales Puntacana: T24
- Puerto Rico Open: 2nd
- The Bahamas Great Abaco Classic: T7
- The Bahamas Great Exuma Classic: T4
- The Bahamas Great Exuma Classic: WIN (2022)
Cameron Champ 66-1
We mentioned wide open fairways, long iron approach shots and resort style comp courses. Well, Cam Champ is the 2nd longest driver of the ball in the field, sees a remarkable improvement in his iron play the further the approach shot gets from the hole, and also has thrived on these resort style courses in the past with two top-10 finishes in his two Mexico Open appearances. Champ also enters the week playing better golf, finishing T9 and T18 in two of his three most recent tournaments. A great course fit for a cheaply priced golfer in decent form is what we are all about here.
Erik Van Rooyen 70-1
We were going to add Luke List and EVR to the card as a live add, but KISS (keep it simple stupid) had us adding them both pretournament incase they get off to a good start. No need to live on the edge like that. My fellow South African will be teeing it up in Mexico for the first time since South Africa won the Rugby World Cup for a record setting 4th time. Us Saffas are the ultimate patriots and he should be playing with a sense of patriotic pride that should compliment the whopping +1.29 strokes he is gaining on approach since the fall swing began. In fact, EVR is averaging 2 strokes ball striking per round in the fall swing.
His biggest weakness is ARG, where he loses massive amounts of shots to the field, but at a course with wide fairways and greens as big as the South African Rugby trophy cabinet, expect green in regulation percentages to be well into the 80s this week. All we need is his putter to pop for a few rounds and then our boytjie will be right in the thick of things.
Sam Ryder 80-1
Golf betting can make you want to rip your hair out, scrape your eyeballs with sand paper, chew on razor blades and take a nap in traffic. Or at least that is what it feels like to bet on Sam Ryder. He enters the Sanderson Farms Championship with only Viktor Hovland gaining more strokes on approach over the last 16 rounds, and then proceeds to shift his approach play into neutral, send his driver into the trees and resort back to miraculous short game over the next three starts. Ryder lacks accuracy and distance off the tee, but at this course his lack of accuracy should not be that big of a draw back. If we can get the iron play that we saw in the couple starts prior to Sanderson Farms, we know he can get the putter cooking too, making him ultra appealing at 80-1.
Brandon Wu 90-1
Brandon Wu returns to Mexico, having finished third to Jon Rahm and Tony Finau the last time he teed it up south of the border. He also finished second to Jon Rahm in the 2022 version of the Mexico Open, either thoroughly enjoying that course, or just enjoying the resort style layout that also saw him finish T3 at the Puerto Rico Open last year. His lack luster form since the RBC Canadian Open T9 gets him slapped with a 90-1 price tag and as a result was one of the most bet on golfers this week courtesy of the Resort Style Narrative and his success in Mexico. Let's add a first to that 2nd and 3rd, shall we?
Troy Merritt 120-1
Troy Merritt is our twitter buddy and dark horse entering the week. If Merritt can bounce back with the putter after a bit of a rough go at the Shriners, the rest of his game has been sufficient enough to record two top-10 finishes in two of his last three starts. Merritt keeps getting slapped with triple digit odds, which, after two top-10 finishes, we are hoping to take advantage of. He is solid off the tee and now that he seems to be more confident on the greens again, we are looking to put FanDuel Sportsbook into painful pretzel when he wins this week.
Henrik Norlander 220-1
FanDuel has some juicy odds out there for long shots, with Norlander still at 200-1. His last two starts have been a T2 and T35 while his previous three top-25 finishes came at resort style or Mexican courses with a T22 at Corales Puntacana, T15 at Puerto Rico Open and T15 at the WWT Championship in 2022. He gained over 5 strokes on approach at the Shriners but gave it all back off the tee. That should not happen here with these massively wide fairways.
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End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod
2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 UnitsTotal Winnings: +311.229 Units
Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36
H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE
— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022
Placings ($40)
- Davis Thompson $12 +220 T20
- Keith Mitchell $12 +200 T20
- Sam Ryder $12 +280 T20
- Kevin Yu $4 +400 T20
Matchups ($35)
Ludvig Aberg OVER Lucas Glover -140 $21
Keith Mitchell OVER K.H. Lee -114 $14
The Farewell Fiver ($5)
Round 1 3-ball Parlay $5 +2103 DK
We are going to take a stab at a 4-leg 3-ball parlay that includes Adam Svensson, Beau Hossler, Cameron Champ and Ludvig Aberg. If this puppy hits, we can lose every other bet and still profit this week. Good luck this week, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!
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