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We have a four-game NHL schedule going down to kick off the month of November on Wednesday. As the snow begins to fall and the weather starts to cool, let's dive in and get our month started on the right note!
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the NHL games on Wednesday, November 1, 2023. We will focus on money line bets, totals, and team totals. With all of that said, let's break down some hockey games. Follow me on Twitter @BKemp17.
Today's NHL Betting Picks - Buffalo Sabres vs. Philadelphia Flyers
O/U: 6.5 | Moneyline: BUF (-115)
The Buffalo Sabres and surprising Philadelphia Flyers square off Wednesday night in the City of Brotherly Love with both teams starting to trend in opposite directions.
The Sabres dropped three of four to begin the season but are coming off their best effort of the young campaign in a 4-0 shutout win over the visiting Colorado Avalanche on Sunday. The club's offense was surprisingly ineffective to begin the season but has caught fire of late, notching at least four goals in three straight with an average of 4.67 goals per game during that time.
Still, Buffalo's underlying numbers aren't great. They remain 21st in expected goals for per 60 minutes of five-on-five action and 18th in terms of expected goals against in the same scenario. Their power play has also struggled at 29th with a 10.7% clip to begin the season, although their penalty kill has held up its end of the bargain with an 89.2% clip that ranks sixth league-wide.
The Flyers came out of the gate strong, winning three of their first four to kickstart their season. However, they have since dropped four of five and have surrendered 10 goals over their last two. Their offense sits 12th in the league while their expected goals for/60 at 5v5 checks in at eighth in the league. Offense has not been an issue to begin the season.
Interestingly, defense doesn't appear to be a problem, either. While they sit in the middle of the pack at 17th in overall defense, they also rank sixth in expected goals against/60 at 5v5. Special teams are one area where they'd like to see improvement as they rank 19th on the penalty kill and check in at a share of 25th on the man advantage.
Healthy returns of Sean Couturier and Cam Atkinson have helped the Flyers surprise their way to a solid start to the season but it's unlikely they can maintain it. We're starting to see cracks in the armor and, despite solid underlying metrics, their young roster will certainly have its ups and downs throughout the season.
At the same time, the Sabres are starting to get straightened out. They threw their lines into a blender after a poor start to the season and it's worked. Those 4.67 goals per game over their last three came after averaging only 2.17 goals per game through their first six.
After a quality win over the Avs their last time out, look for Buffalo to grab a road win over a slipping Flyers team tonight in Philly.
Pick: Sabres moneyline (-115, DraftKings sportsbook)
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Today's NHL Betting Picks - St. Louis Blues vs. Colorado Avalanche
O/U: 6.5 | Moneyline: COL (-230)
The Colorado Avalanche play host to the St. Louis Blues in a Central division tilt tonight in Denver as both clubs come in off of shutout losses.
We noted the Avs' 4-0 loss in Buffalo their last time out but it was actually their second straight 4-0 defeat after dropping a contest to the Penguins last Thursday. The Blues are also coming in after a tough outing as they dropped a 5-0 decision in Vancouver last Friday but have had plenty of time to reflect on that loss.
The back-to-back losses for the Avs followed a clean 6-0-0 start to their season. They have played well at both ends of the ice as they sit 10th in overall offense and sixth in overall defense. Their power play sits 15th but they have dominated on the penalty kill to the tune of a 93.8% clip, good for third overall. The underlying data strongly agrees with their work, especially on the back end where they sit second in expected goals against/60 at 5v5.
We still don't really know who this Blues team is. They have alternated losses and wins to begin their season but the numbers just aren't there. They have struggled to score with their 1.86 goals per game sitting 31st while they sit dead last in expected goals for per/60 at 5v5. The defense hasn't been as bad with just 2.71 goals against per game allowed (eighth) but they also rank 22nd in expected goals against per/60 at 5v5.
While the Avs' penalty kill has been elite, the Blues' power play has been futile. Their ugly 4.76% clip on the man advantage is easily the worst mark in the NHL with Chicago sitting 31st at nearly double that mark at 9.09%. St. Louis' penalty kill has been solid, if unspectacular at 80%.
The Avs return home from a three-game road trip for this one while the Blues are wrapping up a four-game trip themselves. Colorado flew across the country after Sunday's loss in Buffalo and that, sometimes, can lead to a sleepy start to a stretch that will see them play four of their next five at Ball Arena.
However, we'll follow the numbers here. Colorado has been outscored 8-0 over their last two but those types of results will not last given the underlying data and talent up and down the roster. All-world blueliner Cale Makar is questionable for this one after an awkward fall in Buffalo on Sunday but this is a deep Avalanche roster.
Let's look for Colorado to bounce back with authority against a Blues team that has yet to figure it out up front.
Pick: Avalanche -1.5 puck line (+102, DraftKings sportsbook)
Good luck, Rotoballers! Let's cash some bets and make some money today!
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