Booms and Busts - Starts and Sits for Week 10 Lineups

November 13, 2021

Brandon's fantasy football start em and sit em for Week 10 lineups in 2021. Sneaky players to start that may boom, and typical starters to disappoint or bust.

Throughout the 2021 season, we have seen some baffling player production every week. But in Week 9, we somehow landed in the Bizzaro world of fantasy football. Sure, there were your traditional names littered among the top of positional rankings. But overwhelmingly, we saw several players come from out of nowhere to produce starter-level statistics last week. These performances from the likes of Josh Johnson, Olamide Zaccheaus, and Stephen Anderson probably went all for not as they all were waiver wire fodder that popped big numbers. Josh Johnson, of course, was thrust into his position after an injury to Mike White. But his performance, after the way things unfolded for the week, wasn't that hard to believe as we look back on things.

As we continue to see each week, there is no true blueprint to success in fantasy football. You can think you have all the answers when you submit a lineup, but as the games unfold, many fantasy managers are quickly humbled. There are just so many variables that can be put into place as you search for the optimal lineup. As injuries continue to plague the league, wild cards are being put into play more frequently. Hitting the waiver wire and hoping to strike it rich has become more prevalent than ever during the 2021 season as managers are having to take more chances with their rosters. Some go about this in hopes of blind luck, while the more successful managers know that working the wire takes a bit more skill.

That skill is having a well-rounded idea of your roster and the matchups that are ahead of them every week. Some managers have a strong set of starters to rely on, making lineup submissions easy. While others have to dig into the analytics and not just go by projected scores before hitting submit. This analytical data shows trends for players and the defenses they are facing and can give you a leg up on your opponent in a given matchup. Being halfway through the NFL season, the statistical data is more than merely a small size to go by and instead should be viewed more as trends. These trends are vital to trust in this late in an NFL season. It's beginning to become make or break time for fantasy managers as wins and losses could be the difference between making the playoffs or prepping for next year.

As we go through the analytical data and trends, it's apparent that there are some matchups to attack, while there are some that you should avoid. I dive into those numbers and bring to you some names that aren't your typical starters that should be in lineups, while also presenting some names that are facing tough matchups in Week 10.

Week 10 Woos - Fantasy Football Booms

Carson Wentz vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

After his early-season struggles, Carson Wentz has found a groove in recent games with four QB1 finishes over his last five games. He currently ranks inside the top 10 in both passing yards (2,198) and touchdowns (17), which have helped raise his fantasy PPG to 15th at the position (18.6). With the excellent play this season from Michael Pittman, Wentz is back to taking shots downs the field, where he ranks seventh (38). Look for the strong play to continue in Week 10 as he faces a Jaguars defense that is surrendering 18.17 FPPG to the position over the last month. For managers looking to stream at the position this week, Wentz should return QB1 value yet again in this game.

Javonte Williams vs. Philadelphia Eagles

One of the more hotly debated players in all of fantasy, Williams continues to find himself on the wrong side of a backfield split as he shares time with Melvin Gordon. He has simply just not seen an adequate amount of work to be trusted in fantasy lineups without the right matchup. He's been in the single digits in carries in four out of his last six games, with his season-high (17) coming just last week. Although he is tied for the league lead in avoided tackles (35), it has not translated into production as he ranks 36th at the position with 10.2 FPPG. He should be able to up that number in Week 10, even splitting work, as he will be facing an Eagles defense that has been one of the worst in the league over the last month (30.58 FPPG). Williams should be viewed as a Flex play this week with an upside to finish as a strong RB2 based on production.

Deonte Harris @ Tennessee Titans

Harris has been a player that has rarely seen the field during the early stages of the season (28.7% snap share). With just 90 routes run on the season, he ranks outside the top 100 at the position and sports a very low 9.7 FPPG, ranking him at WR51. But he has seen an uptick in usage over the last two games after the injury to Jameis Winston. His 15 targets in the last two games have nearly matched his season totals before that. He is a player that is trending in the right direction. Harris should benefit from a positive matchup in Week 10 as well. He will be facing a Titans defense that has been the worst in the league over the last four games in points allowed to the position (46.98 FPPG). In what could shape up to be a back and forth affair, Harris could find himself returning WR3 value for fantasy managers this week.

O.J. Howard @ Washington Football Team

With the injury situation surrounding Rob Gronkowski still a mystery, Howard could find himself in a prime situation with the Buccaneers hurting for pass catchers. Aside from his TE1 finish in Week 6 (6/49/1), Howard has been an afterthought on this offense. He ranks outside the top 30 in nearly all statistical categories and sits at just 3.9 FPPG on the season. But with the injuries striking the Buccaneers receiving group and a plus matchup ahead, Howard could find himself to be useful again. He will be facing a Washington defense that has been among the league's worst in points allowed to the position over the last month (17.73 FPPG). If Gronkowski is out or even limited yet again in this game, Howard becomes a very intriguing streamer option for fantasy managers in Week 10.

Week 10 Boos - Fantasy Football Busts

Russell Wilson @ Green Bay Packers

Coming back after the missed time with a finger injury, there could be some rust for Wilson. He has been fairly consistent on the season hovering around the lower end of QB1, ranking 11th with 19.9 FPPG. His efficiency has been off the charts on the season as he ranks first in yards per attempt (9.6) and fantasy points per drop back (0.72). In his first game back, he could find the going tough. He will be facing a Packers defense that has been one of the best in fantasy over the last month in points allowed to the position (13.25 FPPG). Most fantasy managers will be locked into starting Wilson in his return, but given the matchup, tempering expectations would be advised.

D'Andre Swift @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Swift has been living or dying on what he brings as a receiver the entire season. He ranks first at the position in both targets (57) and receptions (47). They've helped buoy his efficiency to 18.2 FPPG, rankings eight on the season to date. His role in the offense seems to be locked in at this point as he rarely factors in as a traditional rusher. He ranks 37th on the season with just 289 yards and a single-game high of just 51. He's a player that thrives on negative game script and when the Lions are not trailing by a large amount, his numbers can suffer. This week could be one of those games as he faces a Steelers defense that has been strong against opposing running backs over the last month (21.67 FPPG). They've certainly limited pass-catching backs over that span allowing just 12 receptions and no touchdowns. If this game stays a close low-scoring affair, Swift could see limited opportunities. Making less of an RB1 on the week and more of an RB2 in the return value.

Terry McLaurin vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

It's been score or bust all season long for McLaurin in 2021. In the three games in which he has scored, he has been a top 10 receiver for that given week. But in his other five games, his high weekly finish has been WR48. He ranks fourth at the position in air yards (920), but that has not translated in true receiving yards where he ranks 19th (573). His up and down production have him currently at WR19 on the season with 15.7 FPPG. It could be yet another down week for McLaurin as he faces a Buccaneers defense that has been the toughest in the leagues in points allowed over the last month (20.47 FPPG). Don't start McLaurin in Week 10 assuming he returns WR1 value. Lower the expectations to more of a low-end WR2 given the matchup.

Dallas Goedert @ Denver Broncos

Another player that has seen hot and cold performances on the season is Dallas Goedert. Four out of his first eight games he has returned a TE1 finish for the week. He ranks just 16th at the position in targets (37) but has turned that into top 10 rankings in both air yards (358) and receiving yards (401). But his 27 receptions (14th) and two scores (14th) have limited him to TE12 on the season with 10.1 FPPG. He could be staring at another subpar performance in Week 10 as he faces a Broncos defense that has not allowed a touchdown to the position over the last en route to giving up just 9.88 FPPG. With so many options emerging at the position in recent weeks, the case could be made to play another option over Goedert in Week 10 with a better matchup.

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