Booms and Busts for Week 1 Lineups

Brandon Murchison's top starts and sits for your Week 1 fantasy football lineups - sneaky players to start that may boom, and typical starters that may disappoint or bust.

It feels like it has taken forever, but the 2021 NFL season is finally upon us! No longer do we have to worry about projecting players out and setting up draft boards to get rosters ready. No, instead we now go to the grind of setting weekly lineups is on the agenda. With the rosters set, it's time to begin looking into the matchups and determine your most optimal plays. But the first week of the season is one that should be stressed about the least right? Wrong. Just because you drafted a player higher does not necessarily mean they inherit the right to be an automatic starter in your lineups. Some players come into Week 1 with terribly difficult matchups that could be cause for concern. While you have a player on the bench that presents a matchup that could yield a high upside.

Some top-tier players have home-run matchups in the first week like Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray. Those calls are the easy ones to make for the managers that drafted them. But you also have some other matchups that could bring some pause to others, like Justin Herbert. Gauging the best quarterback matchups to go with is a little easier than those you can encounter at the other skill positions. Most often than not, the studs at running back and wide receiver typically garner the top spots in your starting lineups regardless of matchup. But it's the fringe players at the WR3 and Flex positions that can leave managers scratching their heads. This is where grinding through player matchups comes into play.

The most successful managers in fantasy are the ones with the best grasp on top player matchups. While also avoiding the potential landmines that could be brought forth by a top player in a bad matchup. That is the objective here with my Woos and Boos. I take you through the matchups to help steer you in the right direction on those tough calls that you may be looking at in fantasy matchups this week.

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Week 1 Woos - The Good

Trevor Lawrence @ Houston Texans

His first game in the NFL and the top overall pick in the NFL Draft gets the pleasure of facing a team that has been in turmoil during the entirety of the offseason in the Houston Texans. Starting a rookie in his first action in the league could be a reason for some to pause on placing him into the lineup. But the Texans were one of the worst teams in the league in points allowed to the position in 2020 (20.2 FPPG). The case could also be made that they got worse in the offseason. The loss of Travis Etienne could be viewed as a big one, but the truth is the Jaguars are still stocked with talent at the receiver position. Lawrence and the passing attack should be able to move the ball at will in this game and I would expect to see him impress with a 300-yard effort with two scores in his debut.

Chase Edmonds @ Tennessee Titans

For those managers that waited a while to draft a running back this year and went with Chase Edmonds, you may be getting a treat in Week 1. With the departure of Kenyan Drake, the expectation is that Edmonds takes over lead-back duties for the Cardinals in 2021. He should bring some upside this week in a matchup against a Titans defense that was among the bottom third in points allowed to the position last season (20.9 FPPG). The Titans have allowed at least one rushing score in each of their last four games, while also being susceptible to receptions out of the backfield. All in all, this bodes well for Edmonds, who was inside the top 10 in targets, receptions, and yards at the position a year ago. Look for Edmonds to return low-end RB2 value in this matchup.

Robby Anderson vs. New York Jets

Let's go ahead and get the narrative out of the way. It's the revenge game for Robby Anderson! Coming off of a career year in terms of receptions (95) and yards (1,096), Anderson is reunited with former quarterback Sam Darnold. Both will be looking to exact revenge on their former team as they face the Jets. A secondary that will have its troubles against a Panthers offense that is stocked with talent. Giving up an average of 24 FP a game to opposing wideouts in 2020, I expect to see the Panthers move the ball through the air with ease in this game. Which makes Anderson a solid option as a WR2 for the week in your lineups.

Dallas Goedert @ Atlanta Falcons

Goedert was a consensus top 10 TE in drafts heading into the season. Although there is a tad bit of skepticism of just how valuable Jalen Hurts can be to the Eagles' passing attack, the truth is that he did hone in on Goedert in passing situations last season. The sample size was small (2 games), but the proof is in the numbers where Goedert averaged 15.55 FP in those games. To kick off the season the Eagles could find themselves in a shootout with a Falcons defense that was bottom five in points allowed to the position last year (9.7 FPPG). All this should swing in Goedert's favor as he will easily return TE1 numbers in this matchup.

Week 1 Boos - The Bad

Justin Herbert @ Washington Football Team

With all the hype surrounding Herbert and what is expected out of the Chargers' offense in 2021, the schedule makers did them no favors to open the season. Going on the road to face a Washington defense that is one of the toughest in the league against opposing quarterbacks (15.7 FPPG) will be a tall task. I am expecting this game to be a low-scoring one for the Chargers (especially if Austin Ekeler is ruled out). Making Herbert a risky play as a QB1 this week. You may be in a position where you have to start him, but if you have another option with a better matchup, I would lean that way.

David Montgomery @ Los Angeles Rams

Although I am very high on Montgomery and his upside on the season as a whole, the opening matchup could not be a worse one to deal with. The Rams defense was one of the league's stingiest against the run in 2020 (14.9 FPPG to opposing RB). Not to mention the Bears will be starting Andy Dalton at QB, who will be under pressure all game long. All in all, look for the Bears' offense to struggle mightily in this game. You may see some check-downs in the passing game to Montgomery, with Tarik Cohen out, but getting into the end-zone is highly unlikely. He is more of a Flex play for me this week, but a risky one at that.

Kenny Golladay vs. Denver Broncos

The Giants got what they thought was the true WR1 that they have been missing in the offseason with the acquisition of Kenny Golladay. But his offseason has been mired by nagging injuries and missed practice time. That remains the same concern as we head into the opening week for the Giants. Golladay has been limited in practice this week but is expected to play. Although that may not matter as the Giants face a tough matchup against a Broncos secondary that was among the league's top units a season ago (21.9 FPPG in 2020). Look for Golladay's 2021 season to get off to a very disappointing start.

Mike Gesicki @ New England Patriots

There is a lot of sleeper hype surrounding the 2021 Miami Dolphins and the offense taking a step forward under Tua Tagovailoa. That may just be the case during the length of the season, but I don't see them getting out of the gates quickly in the opening game. Mike Gesicki was a player that was all over the map a season ago. Coming in 12th at the position in receptions (53), but fourth in yards (703) and ninth in touchdowns (6). Look for that inconsistency to stick in this week's game as the Dolphins face a Patriots defense that allowed just 6.2 FPPG in 2020. Gesicki is a TE that I would plant firmly on my bench to begin the season and stream another player at the position.

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