X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Projections
Articles & Tools
Weekly Planner
24x7 News and Alerts

Breakout or Bust? The Fantasy Impact of Second-Year Prospects

rotoballer fantasy baseball advice belt

Read this original RotoBaller.com article for a strategy overview about second-year MLB prospects, breakout or bust ratings, and fantasy baseball advice on what to expect from these sophomore players.

Brandon Belt 2011Brandon Belt

Just about two years ago, Brandon Belt was a hot topic among fantasy enthusiasts, and with good reason. The young Giants first baseman had just blown through three levels of the minors in 2010, finishing with a combined .352 BA, 24 HR and 112 RBI. In 2011, he picked up right where he left off hitting .309 with 8 HR and 32 RBI in just 165 AB before getting called up to the majors. In 187 big league AB, Belt did show some power (9 HR), but overall he struggled, batting only .225 and striking out at an alarmingly high rate (57). 2012 was an even more puzzling year for Belt. In 411 AB in SF, he raised his average (.275) and walks (54) while lowering his strikeout rate (106). The question is: did he make these adjustments at the cost of all his punch (7 HR)? When looking at all of these numbers as a whole, I get the feeling that Belt felt that striking out too often was a quick way for him to head back to AAA, and so he toned his swing down a bit.

The key to Belt’s success in 2013 is regular playing time. He is pretty much the same player against both RHP and LHP, and a full-time starting job should give him the confidence to finally let it fly and be the slugger that he can be. If the Giants commit to Belt as their everyday first baseman, I see him taking a larger step forward and delivering numbers closer to what we saw from him in the minors.

UPSIDE: .280, 22 HR, 85 RBI

ROTOBALLER.COM BREAKOUT RATING: 7/10 - Solid though not overwhelming chance that he reaches this upside.

Starling Marte

When Starling Marte got his shot with Pittsburgh in 2012 he responded by hitting .257 with 5 HR, 17 RBI and 12 SB in 167 AB. Many considered these numbers to be a disappointment considering the hype around the rookie. After looking closely at his minor league numbers, I would disagree with that assessment. Marte was hitting .282 with 12 HR and 22 SB in 393 AB at the time of his call up. Solid numbers for sure, but by no means earth-shattering. In fact, in his entire minor league career, he has never held a .400 OBP. The point here is that this a free-swinging speedy player, and his major league stats basically mirror what he did in the minors. It's important to remember that not every rookie takes the league by storm a la Mike Trout or Stephen Strasburg. Marte’s 2012 was not a disappointment, but a normal year in the maturing process of a young player. The best thing about Marte is that speed doesn’t go into slumps, so even if he struggles with batting average and power numbers, he should still be able to steal 30 bases easily with regular playing time. I look for him to take a step forward this year.

UPSIDE: .275, 10 HR, 55 RBI, 85 R, 34 SB

ROTOBALLER.COM BREAKOUT RATING: 6/10 - Decent chance he reaches this upside.

Brett Jackson
Back in 2009, if Cubs officials were asked what their major league outfield would look like in three years, it definitely would have included Brett Jackson. Jackson cruised through the lower levels of the minors, showing off a high average with both power and speed. He never hit below .295 while consistently posting an OBP around .400. He seemed to be on the fast track to be a major league star.

Unfortunately, things went downhill from there. In two seasons at AA, Jackson only hit a combined .266 while striking out a whopping 137 times in 474 AB. While he still managed to show some speed and power, his home runs at stolen bases were halved compared to his A-level performance. Nevertheless, the Cubs pushed on with Jackson, sending him to AAA in mid-2011, with very similar results. In just under 600 AB at the AAA level, Jackson has hit only .269 with 14 HR and 33 SB. Those numbers wouldn't be so terrible if they didn’t include an amazing 222 K. In Jackson’s brief appearance at the major league level in 2012 he showed more of the same, hitting a meager .175 and striking out 59 times in 120 AB.

Jackson is clearly overmatched by advanced pitching and I don’t see anything changing without a complete overhaul of his swing and approach. I don’t see him as much more than a career minor leaguer or possible pinch runner/defensive replacement as things stand now.

ROTOBALLER.COM BREKAOUT RATING: 1/10 - Almost no chance Jackson breaks out in the MLB this year.

------

Read RotoBaller.com's prospect raankings series for deeper analysis of some even younger guys who could contribute in 2013. Part I, Part II and Part III should give you all the information you need for your non-keeper league draft endgame.

POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Projections
Articles & Tools
Weekly Planner
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Nico Collins

Ruled Out Late on Monday Night With Concussion
Nico Collins

Suffers Head Injury on Monday Night
Jahmyr Gibbs

Blows Up For 218 Total Yards, Two Touchdowns in Win
Mike Evans

to Miss Most of the Year With Broken Clavicle
Jalen Williams

Ruled Out for Season Opener
Brandon Woodruff

Expects to Be Ready for Opening Day
Mike Evans

Ruled Out Monday With Concussion, Shoulder Injury
Mike Evans

Making his Return in Primetime Against Detroit
Emeka Egbuka

Officially Active on Monday Night
Dereck Lively II

Mavericks Exercise Fourth-Year Option on Dereck Lively II
Patrik Laine

Remains Out Monday
Dyson Daniels

Agrees to Four-Year Rookie Contract Extension on Monday
Jared McCann

Out Against Flyers
Carson Soucy

Ready to Return Monday
Ja Morant

Expected to Suit Up Wednesday
Zach Bogosian

Unavailable Against Rangers
Marco Rossi

Misses Monday's Action
Shayne Gostisbehere

Sits Out Monday's Game
Christian Braun

Inks Contract Extension With Nuggets on Monday
Mark Stone

Out Week-to-Week
Michael Penix Jr.

Dealing With Bone Bruise in Foot, Considered Day-to-Day
Coby White

Ruled Out For First Two Weeks
Jayden Daniels

Avoids Long-Term Injury, Status Unknown for Week 8
Bilal Coulibaly

Ruled Out For Opener, Early Season Absence Expected
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Locked In As Starter For Rockets Opener
Jaylen Brown

Fully Cleared, Set To Lead Celtics In Season Opener
Tua Tagovailoa

Dolphins Sticking With Tua Tagovailoa as Their Starting QB
Josh Hart

Back Injury Puts Opening Night Status In Doubt
Daniel Gafford

Registers Limited Practice, Questionable for Opener
Brock Bowers

Expected Back After the Bye
Darren Waller

Week-to-Week Following MRI
Kendre Miller

Out for the Year After Suffering Torn ACL
Christian Braun

There's "Cautious Optimism" Around Christian Braun Signing Contract Extension
Bryce Young

Expected to Miss Week 8
Nikola Topić

Nikola Topic Has Third-Year Option Picked Up
Cason Wallace

Thunder Pick Up Fourth-Year Option for Cason Wallace
Brooklyn Nets

Nets Waive Kobe Bufkin
Justin Fields

to Lose Starting Job After Week 7 Benching?
Haywood Highsmith

Suffers Setback While Rehabbing Knee
Reinier de Ridder

Reinier De Ridder Suffers His First UFC Loss
Brendan Allen

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Kevin Holland

Drops Decision
Mike Malott

Wins Third Fight In A Row
Jordan Addison

Leads Minnesota With 128 Receiving Yards in Loss
Marlon Vera

Loses Third Consecutive Fight
Aiemann Zahabi

Gets A Razor-Thin Split Decision Win
Jasmine Jasudavicius

Suffers First-Round TKO Loss
Manon Fiorot

Gets Back In The Win Column
Ryan Donato

Leads Blackhawks to Victory Sunday
Tom Wilson

Registers Two Assists, Seven Hits Sunday
Conor Garland

Sends Out Two Assists Sunday
David Pastrnak

Pots Two Goals in Losing Effort
Davey Grant

Suffers Submission Loss
Emmitt Finnie

Notches Three Points Against Oilers
Dylan Larkin

Totals Four Points in Sunday's Win
Charles Jourdain

Gets First-Round Submission Win
Matt Frevola

Gets Dominated At UFC Vancouver
Matt Frevola

Kyle Nelson Dominates Matt Frevola
Josh Jacobs

Saves Fantasy Performance With Two Touchdowns Against Cardinals
Javonte Williams

Records Second 100-Yard Rushing Game in Week 7
Darren Waller

Suffers Pectoral Strain, Will Undergo MRI
Jake Ferguson

Scores Two TDs Despite Return of Top Dallas Receiver
Rashee Rice

Heavily Involved in Debut, Scores Two Touchdowns Against Raiders
Toumani Camara

Gets Four-Year Contract Extension from Portland
Shaedon Sharpe

Blazers Agree on a Contract Extension
Kevin Durant

Lands Two-Year Contract Extension with Houston
George Springer

Returns to Lineup for Game 6 of ALCS
Domantas Sabonis

to Miss at Least a Few Games, Will be Re-Evaluated in One Week
Spencer Knight

Takes on Ducks Sunday
Shakir Mukhamadullin

Sharks Place Shakir Mukhamadullin on Injured Reserve
Kasperi Kapanen

Exits With Injury Sunday
Jonathan Lekkerimaki

Suffers Injury Sunday
Filip Chytil

Injured on Sunday
Teddy Blueger

Hurt in Sunday's WIn
Jason Dickinson

Remains Out Sunday
CFB

Colorado State Fires Head Coach Jay Norvell After Four Seasons
CFB

Florida Fires Head Coach Billy Napier After Four Years
Nils Lundkvist

Expected to Miss Time
Chase Elliott

Can Chase Elliott Deliver Another Clutch Win to Make Championship 4?
William Byron

Seeks First Win at Talladega to Overcome Las Vegas Crash
Chase Briscoe

Likely to Finish Worse Than he Starts
Kyle Larson

Despite No Wins on Drafting Tracks, Kyle Larson is Improving
Tyler Reddick

Despite Winning at Talladega, Tyler Reddick's Drafting Record Is Not So Hot
Ross Chastain

Poor Qualifying Makes him a Strong DFS Option at Talladega
Chris Buescher

Excellent Crash Avoidance Could Reap Dividends at Talladega
Ty Gibbs

If Ty Gibbs' Team Executes a Better Strategy, he Could Win at Talladega
Daniel Suarez

Hopes for Clutch Talladega Win to Remain in the NASCAR Cup Series
Josh Berry

Might Contend at Talladega
Austin Dillon

Doesn't Lead Enough at Talladega to Contend for Wins
Rob Dillingham

Timberwolves Exercise Team Option on Rob Dillingham
Brendan Donovan

Undergoes Sports Hernia Surgery
George Springer

Exits Game 5 Early After HBP on his Knee
Jackson Chourio

Back in Game 4 Lineup Against Dodgers
Iván Herrera

Ivan Herrera Has Bone Spurs Removed From his Elbow
Brendan Allen

Set For UFC Vancouver Main Event
Reinier de Ridder

Reinier De Ridder A Favorite At UFC Vancouver
Mike Malott

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Kevin Holland

Set For UFC Vancouver Co-Main Event
Aiemann Zahabi

Looks For His Seventh Consecutive Win
Marlon Vera

Returns At UFC Vancouver
Jasmine Jasudavicius

Looks To Extend Her Win Streak
Manon Fiorot

Looks To Bounce Back
Aoriqileng

Aori Aoriqileng Looks To Rebound
CFB

Curt Cignetti Signs Eight-Year, $11.6 Million Extension With Indiana
Carlos Rodón

Carlos Rodon Unlikely to Be Ready for Opening Day After Elbow Surgery
Anthony Santander

Removed From ALCS Roster With Back Injury
Jackson Chourio

Aggravates Hamstring, Pulled Early in Game 3 of NLCS
Aaron Judge

Will Not Need Elbow Surgery
Anthony Volpe

Won't be Ready for Start of Next Season
Gerrit Cole

Won't be Ready for Opening Day Next Year
CFB

Jermod McCoy Officially Out for Alabama Matchup
CFB

Jam Miller Questionable to Face Tennessee
CFB

Arizona State QB Sam Leavitt Probable For Saturday
Anthony Volpe

Undergoes Left-Shoulder Surgery
CFB

Jayden Gibson No Longer with Oklahoma Program

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP