Fantasy Baseball Breakout Hitters Watch and Underachievers, Overachievers (Week 16)

July 5, 2024

Jarod's fantasy baseball breakout hitters watch list, underachievers, and overachievers for Week 16 (2024), including hit streak leaders, ISO leaders, and more.

Welcome back to my Week 16 edition of the Fantasy Baseball Breakout Hitters series for the 2024 MLB season. We're going to take our usual look around the league as we head into the weekend to see who is showing signs of some meaningful trends that can be revealing in some form or another. Perhaps a hitter is about to break out or on the verge of a cold spell.

Checking in on who's hot (or not) can bring to light some notable names. Those names then become potential waiver-wire targets or sneaky DFS plays (or avoids) until the rest of the fantasy community catches on. Jonathan India was a good one from last week who continued to collect extra-base hits for a few days afterward.

Below, we'll check in on players with the longest hit streaks, highest batting average, and highest ISO over the last seven days, as well as some regression candidates and more. Note that totals are designated by the number in parentheses next to the player's name.

Hit Streak Leaders

(data through 7/3)   

Jackson Chourio (9)

Nothing against Connor Wong, but I already highlighted him in my last two articles. I hope he keeps it up as he's my catcher in a couple of leagues. Bryce Harper and Giancarlo Stanton are both on the IL, so let's discuss Jackson Chourio. The 20-year-old got off to a slow start this season, hitting just .206 in the first month of the season, then warming up slightly and hitting .215 in May. In June, the youngster finally got comfortable at the plate, hitting .315 for the month, swatting four home runs, and driving in 16 runs.

Jackson Chourio’s June:

24 games
.314/.355/.543 (.898 OPS)
4 HR, 4 2B, 16 RBI, 5 BB, 13 K, 1 SB pic.twitter.com/3Y2flhbdrb

— The Brew Crew Scoop (@BrewCrewScoop) June 30, 2024

It's a small sample, but in July, he's hitting .429 (3-for-7) and is currently riding a nine-game hit streak. During the streak, the former top prospect is 13-for-31 (.419) with two doubles and two home runs. The one thing lacking lately are the stolen bases. After stealing five bags in the first month of the season, he's got four since May 1. Hopefully the Venezuelan will pick up the pace in that department and fantasy managers can feel comfortable slotting him back into their lineups.

(Update: Chourio went 1-for-2 with a double and two walks Thursday, extending streak to 10 games)

Highest Batting Average Last Seven Days

(minimum 13 AB, games through 7/3) 

Check out the names on this list. There are some intriguing names here that can help fill out a DFS lineup and could also be worthwhile adds in redraft leagues.

Yordan Alvarez (.500)

It is nice to see Yordan Alvarez back to doing Yordan things. He wasn't hitting poorly per se, but in May, the lefty slugger blasted just two home runs in 106 at-bats and struck out twice as much as he walked (12:24 BB:K). In June, however, the two-time All-Star hit .349 with seven home runs and he walked more than he struck out (11:10 BB:K).

Another big year from Yordan Alvarez has him headed to his third consecutive #AllStarGame as the AL’s starting DH! pic.twitter.com/QtxJJHl4i4

— MLB (@MLB) July 3, 2024

(Update: Alvarez went 0-for-1 with two walks and two HBPs Thursday)

Christian Walker (.458)

You know Christian Walker is going to hit home runs, but when he is hitting for average, he's even more dangerous. The 33-year-old has homered in consecutive games (three HRs in two games) and has a modest four-game hit streak going. Although, there is really nothing modest about it: 11-for-17 (.647), three doubles, three home runs, eight RBI, five runs scored, 2:1 BB:K.

Christian Walker (20)
Exit Velo: 108.6 MPH
Distance: 398 FT
July 3, 2024pic.twitter.com/88FSIjlkiK

— Dbacks Dingers (@DbacksDingers) July 4, 2024

(Update: Walker went 2-for-3 with two more HR and two walks Thursday)

Highest ISO Last Seven Days

(minimum 13 AB, games through 7/3)

When it comes to fantasy, especially DFS, we want to see power. More big hits mean more points. Big hits usually drive in more runs, which means more points. Doubles and triples put hitters in a better position to score, which means? You guessed it -- more points! So, who's hitting for extra bases over the past week?

Ian Happ (.714)

Ian Happ was mentioned in my Week 14 article after he turned around his month of June despite a slow start. The switch hitter has been collecting extra-base hits ever since, especially over the last week, tallying three doubles and four home runs in the last week alone. The 29-year-old can be useful in DFS as, even when he's not hitting, he's usually getting on base via the walk, posting a strong 13.6% BB% thus far.

(Update: Happ went 4-for-4 with a double and two more HR Thursday)

Brenton Doyle (.625)

Known more for his speed and cannon arm, Brenton Doyle has gone on the offensive over the past week. Doyle's line in 2023 was .203-10-48-48-22 in 126 games. Much of what held down his batting average was an astronomical 35.0% strikeout rate; however, he's lowered that to 25.2% this season, leading to a much-improved batting average. Through just 82 games, the 26-year-old has surpassed or nearly surpassed most of his totals from last season, currently sporting a .268-10-32-49-20 line. Over his last three games, he's especially hot, going 7-for-11 (.636) with three doubles and three home runs.

Brenton Doyle's second homer of the night ties it in the eighth! pic.twitter.com/Kn64RqUquu

— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) July 2, 2024

(Update: Doyle got the day off Thursday)

Derek Hill (.563)

Derek Hill had four hits in his last 16 at-bats, but three of them were homers. He's the type of hitter who can fill out your DFS lineup at a cheap price, but let's just hope it lasts. Unfortunately, it seems he'll only get a chance to play when the Rangers face a lefty.

(Update: Hill got the day off Thursday)

Most Steals Last Seven Days

(data as of 7/3) 

Stuart Fairchild (3)

Elly De La Cruz shows up on this list quite a bit, and Christian Yelich is having a fantastic season, but let's touch on the lesser-known fantasy commodity below them, Stuart Fairchild. Fairchild has received regular playing time over the last week and has made the most of it. Not only is he stealing bases, the former second-round draft pick is hitting for average the past seven days, too, going 7-for-23 (.304) including his fifth home run of the season.

This. Is. Electric.

Stuart Fairchild races arounds the bases for an inside-the-park home run! pic.twitter.com/Yec26IxvDs

— MLB (@MLB) May 11, 2024

His 11 steals on the season are a new career high and he's on the verge of setting career highs in most other counting stats. The 28-year-old isn't rosterable in redraft leagues yet, but you could ride the hot hand in DFS.

(Update: Fairchild entered the game and went 0-for-2 Thursday)

xBA Underachiever

(data through 7/3, minimum 150 AB)

Below are hitters who have some of the biggest differences between their current slugging percentage and their expected slugging percentage, or xBA. While many times this is a good exercise to see who is on the verge of turning things around, it's not certain. Sometimes hitters over or underperform their xBA throughout their career, so regression to the xBA may not happen.

Michael Toglia (.184 vs. .243)

Michael Toglia struggled to a .106 batting average before being sent back to the minors earlier this season. The switch hitter hit well at Triple-A until Kris Bryant succumbed to injury yet again, opening the door for Toglia's return to the majors. He's hit better this time around, going 20-for-89 (.225) since June 6, but his xBA suggests he should be seeing more success. He's still striking out at a way too high of a rate (32.5%), but an unsightly .198 BABIP portends better fortune in the days ahead.

The 25-year-old has hit nine home runs on a 15.6% barrel rate, which indicates more should be on the way. He plays home games at Coors and has increased his contact rate from 63.7% in 2023 to 72.2% this season, so here's to hoping the former first-round draft pick can get on track.

(Update: Toglia went 1-for-3 on Thursday)

Honorable mention: MJ Melendez (.193 vs. .247)

xBA Overachiever

(data through 7/3, minimum 150 AB)

We'll touch on a hitter below who might eventually cool off. In this case, the BA is much higher than the xBA, and some regression should be expected. Note that the players who've shown up on this list so far this season have continued to hit well for a while, so don't expect them to go ice-cold. Rather, it's usually more of a gradual decline.

Trea Turner (.342 vs. .293)

Trea Turner is currently batting .342, although he's missed some time due to injury, but has an xBA of .293. Even if he were to regress to the xBA, that'd be an admirable batting average for the season. Turner is the type of hustle player with speed who typically outperforms his xBA by a wide margin, but his .406 BABIP isn't sustainable. While Turner will likely have a productive season, there's a good chance he won't end up around .342. The good news is that even last season when he batted .266, it was a 108 wRC+ campaign.

TREA TURNER JUST CRUSHED HIS SECOND HOMER OF THE NIGHT OUT OF WRIGLEY FIELD AND INTO THE STREETS OF CHICAGO 🤯 pic.twitter.com/yfXCfftkYH

— Barstool Philly (@BarstoolPhilly) July 3, 2024

(Update: Turner went 1-for-4 on Thursday)

Also: Ezequiel Tovar (.276 vs. .231)

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