Fantasy Baseball Breakout Hitters Watch and Underachievers, Overachievers (Week 14)

June 21, 2024

Jarod's fantasy baseball breakout hitters watch list, underachievers, and overachievers for Week 14 (2024), including hit streak leaders, ISO leaders, and more.

We're going to take our usual look around the league as we head into the weekend to see who is showing signs of some meaningful trends that can be revealing in some form or another. Perhaps a hitter is about to break out or on the verge of a cold spell.

Checking in on who's hot (or not) can bring to light some notable names. Those names then become potential waiver-wire targets or sneaky DFS plays (or avoids) until the rest of the fantasy community catches on.

Below, we'll check in on players with the longest hit streaks, highest batting average, and highest ISO over the last seven days, as well as some regression candidates and more. Note that totals are designated by the number in parentheses next to the player's name.

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Hit Streak Leaders

(data through 6/20)   

Bryan Reynolds (17)

Bryan Reynolds had an underwhelming start to the season, hitting just .235 in April. But in May, he warmed up a bit and hit .250, and in June, he's caught fire. The switch-hitter has a .357/.408/.629 slash line in June with a .346 wOBA and 123 wRC+. The hit streak, which started June 1, includes eight doubles, a triple, three home runs, 10 RBI, 10 runs scored, and a stolen base.

Bryan Reynolds has the highest career batting average in June (.347) since 1946, per the broadcast

Jackie Robinson had a career AVG in June of .346 https://t.co/rhEiO9eOon pic.twitter.com/jADGYfSvWl

— Platinum Ke’Bryan (@PlatinumKey13) June 19, 2024

Steven Kwan (14)

In terms of batting average, there's no one hotter than Steven Kwan, who has hit safely in every game since coming off the IL, which coincides with the length of his hit streak. The left-handed hitter is 27-for-54 (.500), but it hasn't been all singles. The 26-year-old has five doubles and two home runs during this span, and with five home runs on the season, he is set to sail past his previous career high of six. The former fifth-round draft pick has an incredible 94.2% Contact%, which is helping him to strike out at an ultra-low rate of 6.8%. Only Luis Arraez strikes out less in terms of percent.

Mauricio Dubon (13)

Have a guess who has the lowest K% (with at least 150 PA) after Luis Arraez and Steven Kwan? Yes, it is the Astros' Mauricio Dubon (7.6%). With injuries and underperformance, Dubon has received regular playing time of late and he's making the most of it. The 29-year-old now has a 13-game hit streak going, and although it's not quite as impressive as the others on this list (.292 BA during streak), the fact that he strikes out so infrequently means he's putting the ball in play. That's when good things happen.

Now hitting .296 on the season with 11 doubles and three home runs, he is available in over 90% of Yahoo leagues for managers looking for a hot bat. Dubon is also eligible at 2B, SS, and OF, so his added versatility can make him more appealing.

Highest Batting Average Last Seven Days

(minimum 13 AB, games through 6/19) 

Check out the names on this list. There are some intriguing names here that can help fill out a DFS lineup and could also be worthwhile adds in redraft leagues.

Ceddanne Rafaela (.609)

This list takes a look at the last seven days, so in a lot of cases it may only include six games. That's what the stats above show, but Ceddanne Rafaela has been hotter a game longer than what this list describes. Over his last seven games, the 23-year-old is 16-for-26 (.615) with three doubles and a home run. He even had a four-hit game back on June 6 that may have been the catalyst for it all. The Curacao native doesn't walk a lot (3.7%), which limits his OBP, but now owns a .251-8-41-36-10 line on the season and is eligible at both SS and OF in Yahoo leagues.

Ceddanne Rafaela over his last 22 games...

84 PA, .350/.381/.500, 3 HR, 3 SB#DirtyWaterpic.twitter.com/5jYtEMKY3w

— Eric Cross (@EricCross04) June 18, 2024

Joc Pederson (.444)

Joc Pederson only plays against right-handed pitchers, garnering just 11 PA against LHP compared to 201 against RHP, which can make him frustrating to use in redraft leagues. But he's in the midst of a career year, nonetheless. The 32-year-old owns a .297-9-33-27-4 line on the season with a .396 wOBA and 159 wRC+. As you can see from the table above, 10 of his 33 RBI have come in the last six games for the lefty. The .364 BABIP is a bit worrisome when compared to his career BABIP of .273, but for now you can use him while he's hot.

Highest ISO Last Seven Days

(minimum 13 AB, games through 6/19)

When it comes to fantasy, especially DFS, we want to see power. More big hits mean more points. Big hits usually drive in more runs, which means more points. Doubles and triples put hitters in a better position to score, which means? You guessed it -- more points! So, who's hitting for extra bases over the past week?

Ian Happ (.550)

My how things can change quickly in baseball. In a recent recap, I mentioned how Happ was having a poor month of June, hitting just .218 this month at the time. Then, five consecutive multi-hit games later, the switch-hitter is having a pretty good month as he's now at .291 in June. Over this five-game stretch in which he's had multiple hits, the 29-year-old is 10-for-17 (.588) with two doubles, three home runs, eight RBI, six runs scored, and two stolen bases. His BA and xBA for the season are now identical (.238) and his .311 BABIP is on par with a career BABIP of .314, so we'll see where he goes from here.

The former first-round draft pick is rostered in just 75% of Yahoo leagues, even though batting average aside, his numbers (.238-9-38-37-7) look very similar to Bryan Reynolds' (.274-10-40-30-5), who is rostered in 96% of leagues. Get him while he's hot!

IAN HAPP CRUSHES A 3-RUN SHOT FOR THE LEAD! 💣 pic.twitter.com/53990bsJ1w

— Cubs Zone (@CubsZone) June 18, 2024

Royce Lewis (.522)

If Royce Lewis can stay upright the rest of the season, he could have some gaudy numbers. That is a big IF, though. Lewis has played in just 14 games this season, but eight of his 19 hits are home runs. That ratio couldn't possibly continue, but some could still be doubles. And despite a below-average Contact% of 74.5%, he's not striking out much at a well-above-average rate of 14.0%, so he's a tough out. He put on a breathtaking power display last postseason as well, so this hasn't come out of nowhere. Fantasy managers will cross their fingers that he can play the rest of the season relatively unscathed.

(Update: Lewis went 1-for-3 with another home run on Thursday)

Most Steals Last Seven Days

(data as of 6/19) 

Wyatt Langford (5)

Over his first 43 games of the season, Wyatt Langford stole just two bases, but over the last seven games, he's stolen five bags. This is of course due in large part because he's getting on base more than he was earlier in the season. Over those first 43 games, the 22-year-old batted just .231 with a .295 OBP, but over the last seven games, he is hitting .320 with a .370 OBP. One of his two home runs came in the last seven games as well, so hopefully that is a sign of things to come. Managers who drafted him hoping for some power after launching six long balls in spring training have been disappointed thus far.

xSLG Underachiever

(data through 6/19, minimum 200 AB)

Below are hitters who have some of the biggest differences between their current slugging percentage and their expected slugging percentage, or xSLG. While many times this is a good exercise to see who is on the verge of turning things around, it's not certain. Sometimes hitters over or underperform their xSLG throughout their career, so regression to the xSLG may not happen.

Taylor Ward (.417 vs. .519)

With the way he started off the season, Taylor Ward is a surprising name to see on this list, but that can attest to the power outage we've seen over the past month. Through May 25, Ward had collected 20 XBH in 199 at-bats, good for an XBH every 10 ABs. Since then, the 30-year-old has four XBH in 65 ABs, now needing about 16 ABs per XBH. He was also batting .271 over that initial period compared to just .123 since. Below is his Baseball Savant page, and with his low chase rate, 96th percentile LA Sweet-Spot%, and 93rd percentile barrel rate, it seems we should see a turnaround soon.

xSLG Overachiever

(data through 6/19, minimum 100 AB)

We'll touch on a hitter below who will eventually cool off. In this case, the SLG is much higher than the xSLG, and some regression should be expected. Note that the players who've shown up on this list so far this season have continued to hit well for a while, so don't expect them to go ice-cold. Rather, it's usually more of a gradual decline.

Josh Smith (.454 vs. .349)

I don't want to be the one to rain on Josh Smith's parade, as he's doing a great job filling in for the injured Josh Jung. However, he owns one of the largest discrepancies between actual and expected SLG. The 26-year-old is slashing .298/.388/.454 with a .373 wOBA and 142 wRC+. Over the prior two seasons, Smith had about the same number of at-bats as he does now, but didn't hit above .200 in either of those seasons. The former second-round draft pick has collected a surprising 17 doubles on the season and five home runs but has seventh-percentile Barrel% (2.9%). Something's got to give.

Josh Smith hits a 3-run bomb! 🔥
@Rangers | #StraightUpTX | @BallySports 📺 pic.twitter.com/u3kOyw5h7A

— Bally Sports Southwest (@BallySportsSW) June 19, 2024

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