Fantasy Baseball Breakouts or Fake Outs? Hitters Delivering Elite Results For Week 23

September 1, 2026

Kevin analyzes hitter fantasy baseball sleepers, breakouts surging for Week 23 of 2026. Are they true breakouts, or fake outs? Read his fantasy baseball outlooks and buys/sells.

Welcome to Week 23! The fantasy baseball playoffs may be starting up in your parts, which means every waiver wire pickup is that much more important. You can't fall for someone who's a fake out when you thought they were an obvious breakout.

That's our goal with this series. So let's help you find some gems in this week's edition of Hitter Breakouts or Fake Outs for Week 23 of the fantasy baseball season. We'll use the advanced stats to help us decode whether or not these gems are diamonds in the rough or fool's gold.

Today, we've got four hitters to evaluate -- Troy Johnston, Hector Rodriguez, Dylan Beavers, and Brooks Lee. All statistics in this article reflect games played through Sunday, August 30th.

Troy Johnston, 1B/OF, Colorado Rockies

2026 Stats: .762 OPS, 101 OPS+, 4 HR, 47 RBI, 37 R, 4 SB, 4% Rostered (Yahoo!)

It's easy to overlook Rockies players in fantasy, especially over the past few seasons. But as of late, their young talent is starting to shine through. Johnston is one of those young guys that's starting to make waves.

In August, he's really been clicking, hitting for a .900 OPS with a .318 BA. It's a really solid comeback after a lackluster July. He could be a piece that helps you in the fantasy playoffs. But we still need to check: is he a breakout, or a fake out?

Troy Johnston swats a two-run bomb to give the #Rockies a 2-1 lead!

His fourth of the season and first since June 14th. pic.twitter.com/vF3lywIUMo

— Eli Whitney (@eliwhtney17) August 26, 2026

Starting with his plate approach, Johnston is rocking a 16.8% strikeout rate to go along with an 8.5% walk rate. This is largely the type of profile he displayed as a prospect in 2024 and 2025, so it seems like he's been comfortable at the plate with the Rockies.

Looking at his batted ball profile, Johnston clearly prioritizes line drives. And that's not a bad thing at all, especially for a guy who plays at Coors Field. This season he's posting a 39.9% ground-ball rate, 33.6% fly-ball rate, and a 26.6% line drive rate.

Most of these numbers jibe with who he's been for the past couple of seasons, but there is one aspect that's quite different. That would be his HR/FB rate, which sits at just 4.2%. He's generally been a guy who posts a rate of 12% or better, so maybe there's some underachieving here.

With a high line drive rate and Coors Field as his home, it's no surprise to see a BABIP that's well above the .300 mark we aim for. He's clocking in at .340 on the season. In 44 games with Miami last season, he had a .329 BABIP, so having something around .340 isn't completely out of line. Maybe he's benefiting from luck some, but not a ton.

Moving on to his Baseball Savant page, and we aren't really seeing much luck here at all. His .338 wOBA is paired with a .331 xwOBA that ranks in the 64th percentile. With how big the gap can be for most Rockies players, this is a pleasant surprise.

The contact stats point towards a clear area of opportunity for Johnston, though. His 37.2% hard-hit rate ranks in the 33rd percentile while his 2.4% barrel rate ranks in just the 2nd percentile. Both numbers are below what he's traditionally been, but it's the barrel rate that's suffering.

In his 44-game stint in Miami last season, the barrel rate was up to 9.3%. In Miami's minor league system, he posted a 6.5% barrel rate in 2025 and a 4.7% rate in 2024. Maybe the 9.3% rate is the outlier, but improving here would be a massive boon to Johnston's future success.

As we move on to pitch mix, we can see that he's gotten relatively true results against four-seamers. He's posted a .371 wOBA that's paired with a .362 xwOBA against them. Since he sees four-seamers at a 36.5% clip, this is very good to see.

For the most part, there's not a very large spread between the raw stats and the expected stats for his pitch mix. There are two standouts, though, that end up balancing out. The first would be sinkers, which he's hitting for a .330 wOBA that's paired with a .378 xwOBA.

The other is curveballs. He's hitting them for a .384 wOBA that's paired with a .302 xwOBA. With both pitches being seen 12% of the time or less, these are going to wash each other out.

Verdict: For the most part, there's a good amount of things to love about Johnston's performance this season. He's not much of a beneficiary of luck, and he finds ways to continually get hits.

He is, however, stuck in a platoon role with Jordan Beck. Luckily, Johnston faces righties, so some worries are negated, but it does limit his fantasy value. Johnston is a buy, but you're not going to want to make any drastic moves to get him on your roster. In deeper leagues where you may be desperate, though, he could be a guy that ends up being that perfect complementary piece.

Hector Rodriguez, OF, Cincinnati Reds

2026 Stats: .768 OPS, 111 OPS+, 4 HR, 9 RBI, 9 R, 0 SB, 13% Rostered (Yahoo!)

There's not much that's going right in Cincinnati as of late, but Rodriguez is showing he can be something to look forward to down the home stretch. He's only been up with the Major League team for 19 games, but he's been making an impact.

In their most recent road trip, he's been particularly good, hitting four homers for a 1.303 OPS in seven games. Does that make him a gem that's going to be a solid piece on your roster down the stretch? Let's dig in.

Héctor Rodríguez clubs a 3-run homer to the bleachers and the @Reds have the lead 💪 pic.twitter.com/yxU4uXq36v

— MLB (@MLB) August 31, 2026

Starting with his plate approach, he's posting a 22.1% strikeout rate to go along with an 8.8% walk rate. In Triple-A Louisville this season, he posted a 20.4% strikeout rate alongside a 9.2% walk rate. His eye is slightly different at the Major League level, but for the most part it's very similar.

The batted ball profile is strikingly different, though. That's because he's currently rocking a 60.0% ground-ball rate. He's generally been around the 47% and 48% marks in the minors, so this is quite the turn from who he's been.

That increase in ground-ball rate isn't taking away from his fly-ball rate, though. That's hovering around 31.1%, which is actually higher than his 29.4% rate he posted in 2025. It was up to 38.1% in Triple-A this season, but that's not what concerns me.

The big worry I have is his line drive rate decreasing to 8.9% after being at 21.6% in Louisville. The batted ball profile as a whole is certainly going to be affected by a small sample size here, but I do worry that we may still see a very high ground-ball rate once things normalize for Rodriguez.

With a low line drive rate, high ground-ball rate, and a high HR/FB rate, it's not surprising to see his .238 BABIP on the season. Generally, he's been around a .290 mark in the minors, so we should expect it to increase with more ABs.

But does a low BABIP suggest that Baseball Savant thinks he's going to have positive regression coming? The answer would be not quite. His .335 wOBA is paired with a .296 xwOBA. That xwOBA would rank in the 18th percentile if he were a qualified hitter.

Part of what's influencing this is his 32.6% hard-hit rate, which would rank in the 18th percentile. Combine that with his 60% ground-ball rate, and it makes sense as to why we're expecting negative regression.

At the same time, his barrel rate of 10.9% would rank in the 70th percentile. When he gets it in the air, he does very well! But in his current state, he's simply hitting it on the ground too much.

For pitch mix, there's not much we can take away from yet. One thing that's evident, though, is Rodriguez loves sinkers. He's hit them for a .442 wOBA that's paired with a .398 xwOBA. This looks like a clear strength of his.

Verdict: I do like what Rodriguez can do when he gets the ball in the air, but the question about him revolves around how much he can get that ground-ball rate to drop. Even if he gets it to his normal rate around 48%, that's still a fairly high number. At the same time, when he gets the ball in the air, he does real damage.

I'm not considering Rodriguez a fake out, but I do think he needs to have a warning label attached to him. If you're in a deeper league, you may be more willing to take a chance on Rodriguez. But as pitchers adjust, they're likely to continue enticing ground-balls out of the 22-year-old.

Dylan Beavers, OF, Baltimore Orioles

2026 Stats: .717 OPS, 104 OPS+, 6 HR, 32 RBI, 31 R, 5 SB, 4% Rostered (Yahoo!)

In the middle of my analysis on Rodriguez, I had the Rockies and Orioles game on in the background. I noticed Beavers was up, and he immediately ripped a double and scored on a Samuel Basallo double. That's a lot of good stuff happening right as I'm about to write about his current breakout.

Speaking of that breakout, his last two weeks have been a ride. He's hitting for a 1.109 OPS with three homers and eight RBI over the last 14 days. That's looking solid, so is he a breakout or a fake out? Let's dig in.

Dylan Beavers ties the game with an opposite-field homer 😤 pic.twitter.com/81js0cacqK

— MLB (@MLB) August 20, 2026

Starting with his plate approach, Beavers has a 25.9% strikeout rate to go along with a 10.4% walk rate. In his 35-game stint in the majors last season, he posted a 19.0% walk rate, while he had a 16.3% walk rate in Triple-A Norfolk last year.

I don't think we'll see a 19.0% walk rate out of him going forward, but it does feel like we could see it creep up to 12% or 13%.

For his batted ball profile, we're seeing some interesting trends. He's got a 39.1% ground-ball rate, 40.8% fly-ball rate, and a 20.1% line drive rate. As a whole, it's a pretty solid profile to have.

But in 2025 he was hitting the ball on the ground a lot less. It was down to 29.7% last season and was at 32.0% in his time in Triple-A in 2025. That's partially why his OPS+ is down to 104 this season. During this two-week hot streak, it's down to 30.4%, so this is the version of him we really want to see.

So far this season, he's got a .325 BABIP. That's obviously above the .300 mark we aim for, but he's also no stranger to posting a BABIP above .300 when he's hitting the ball hard. I'm not viewing this as any type of indicator of luck.

That's what Baseball Savant is for anyway! And they're showing his .319 wOBA is paired with a .308 xwOBA. That would rank in the 33rd percentile. During this hot streak, he's posted a .459 wOBA to go with a .372 xwOBA. Even with him getting lucky, that's still a solid floor.

On the season, he's got a hard-hit rate of 39.4% and a barrel rate of 7.7%. Both of those rank a bit below league average, but they're not bad numbers to have.

In this two-week hot streak, his hard-hit rate is down to 34.8%, but his barrel rate is way up to 21.7%. That barrel rate is a clear driver of success here, though we'd like to see the hard-hit rate above 40%.

As we look at the pitch mix he faces, there are three pitches to focus on. The first will be four-seamers. He's hitting them for a .317 wOBA to go along with a .348 xwOBA.

That positive regression will be leveled a bit by changeups, though. He's been crushing them for a .406 wOBA, but it's paired with a .300 xwOBA.

Sinkers may influence that negative regression too, but they're still going to be a strength of his. That's because his .462 wOBA against them is paired with a .410 xwOBA. Pitchers that rely on sinkers need to stay away from them when facing Beavers.

Verdict: There's a lot to like with the current form that Beavers is in. I think a lot of it has to do with a return to a batted ball profile that's more familiar to who he's been. He hasn't been hitting the ball significantly hard, but he's barreling it when he does.

This makes Beavers a buy for me. At 4% rostered, you shouldn't have much competition in trying to get him added. Don't get crazy in deciding who you want to drop, especially since there are still platoon worries for Beavers, but if you're able to make it work, then he could be a fun addition to your roster.

Brooks Lee, 2B/3B/OF, Minnesota Twins

2026 Stats: .739 OPS, 106 OPS+, 22 HR, 73 RBI, 61 R, 7 SB, 59% Rostered (Yahoo!)

Earlier in the season, I evaluated Lee in this series when he was in the middle of another hot streak. At that point, it looked like he was a bit of a fake out to me based on his batted ball profile. But he's back on another hot streak, hitting for a .376 wOBA over the last 14 days.

So is he going to get my co-sign this time as a breakout? Or do I still view him as a fake out? Let's see what the stats say.

Brooks Lee GRAND SLAM! pic.twitter.com/TqH0YS1MAY

— MLB (@MLB) August 16, 2026

His plate approach still matches exactly who he was earlier this season and has been throughout his career. He's posting a 16.4% strikeout rate to go with a 6.3% walk rate. During his hot streak, the strikeout rate is down a touch, but he hasn't recorded a single walk yet.

Since his walk rate is already low, and he's getting solid results, it's not quite an issue. But you all know how much I love a high walk rate, so if he can make pitchers work more and draw more walks, then that would be beneficial.

His batted ball profile is showing some slight improvements over the past year. His ground-ball rate is down to 40.5%, the fly-ball rate is up to 41.0%, and his line drive rate is up to 18.5%. I've got no complaints here.

During the two-week hot streak, he's actually gotten his ground-ball rate down to 38.5%. That's great to see! But it's also included his line drive rate dropping to 12.8%. That's meant more balls in the air, though, and he's capitalized with four homers in this span. So it's not all bad for now.

For BABIP, Lee is posting just a .261 BABIP. That feels quite a bit low, so the first thing I'm wondering about is if his hard-hit rate has been low. Even in his hot streak, his BABIP is down at .257, so this is just kind of who Lee is.

But let's check the expected stats now. On the season, Lee has a .321 wOBA that's paired with a .272 xwOBA. Yikes. The hot streak has better numbers, but still a large gap. The two-week hot streak has him at a .376 wOBA paired with a .307 xwOBA.

So is this just simply because of his contact stats then? His hard-hit rate on the season is at 33.7%, sitting in the 21st percentile. His barrel rate is at 4.0%, sitting in the 17th percentile.

During his hot streak, the hard-hit rate is up to 51.3% while the barrel rate is up to 7.7%. This is the part that confuses me, especially since his batted ball profile is improved during this streak too. Is it simply the line drive rate being lower? Something isn't clicking.

When we look at the pitch mix, some things start to make more sense. He sees four-seamers the most and has done good damage against them, hitting them for a .406 wOBA. That's paired with a .309 xwOBA, though, accounting for a large amount of the negative regression Baseball Savant is projecting.

There are two clear weaknesses that Lee has. That would be changeups and curves. He's hit changeups for just a .230 wOBA to go with a .204 xwOBA. Curves have been worse, hitting them for just a .182 wOBA to go with a .158 xwOBA. Pitchers are probably going to test Lee with these more often soon.

Verdict: I can vibe with the idea that Lee may be overachieving during this hot streak, but I just don't buy that the negative regression is going to be that much. Lee has shown improvements from a full-season perspective, and his hard-hit rate being above 50% during this hot streak should mean less predicted negative regression.

I'm choosing to ignore the expected numbers for now. A bit of a break from me, but I just don't see why that much negative regression is expected. I see a dropoff, but not that sharp. Lee is a buy, especially if his hard-hit rate stays up. Be smart when adding him to your roster, but he should be productive down the home stretch.

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